Lakers vs Pistons — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

LAL

Lakers

46-25 | L10: 9-1

DET

Pistons

51-19 | L10: 6-4

2026-03-23

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

LAL90%

10%DET

LAL96-80DET

Key Factors

*Pistons without Cade Cunningham (24.5 PPG) - out ()
*Lakers without Marcus Smart (9.5 PPG) - questionable (Ankle)
*Lakers without Rui Hachimura (11.1 PPG) - questionable (Calf)
*Pistons without Isaiah Stewart (10.0 PPG) - out (Calf)
*Pistons without Jaden Ivey (8.5 PPG) - questionable ()

Key Matchup

Lakers has matchup advantages

DET Advantages

+ Positional advantages

LAL Advantages

Key Defensive Matchups

LAL Players

Luke Kennard

Javonte Green4g · 7m+0.0%0% eFGmedium

Duncan Robinson3g · 4m+0.0%0% eFGmedium

Kevin Huerter1g · 3m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Deandre Ayton

Jalen Duren2g · 10m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Paul Reed2g · 3m+0.0%0% eFGlow

The Pistons enter at 51-19 and winners of 3 straight, while the Lakers are 46-25 with a 9-game winning streak and a 9-1 last-10 stretch. Detroit has had 3 days since its last game and Los Angeles has had 2 days since its last game, so both sides are on normal rest, but the Lakers’ current form and the Pistons’ missing creation put pressure on Detroit’s rotation roles.

Team Comparison

LALDET

Key Players

Luka is coming off 39.8 PPG over his last 5, well above his 33.5 season average, and he’s also logging 39.4 MPG in that span. Detroit has no historical defender matchup data available for this game, but his current usage plus the Pistons’ 109.53 defensive rating makes his scoring environment strong despite regression risk from the hot streak.

ProjectedPTS: 25.5-32.1-38.7REB: 4.7-7.7-10.7AST: 5.7-8.1-10.5

Reaves is at 21.0 PPG over his last 5 versus 23.5 for the season, but the workload is still huge at 41.0 MPG. His assists remain steady at 5.6 over the last 5, and the Pistons’ 109.53 defensive rating plus his long minutes keep combo-prop interest alive, though the recent dip in scoring makes the points side less appealing than his playmaking.

ProjectedPTS: 13.4-20-26.6REB: 1.9-4.9-7.9AST: 3.1-5.5-7.9

LeBron’s last-5 scoring is 19.2 PPG, down from 21.1 on the season, while his assists have held at 5.2 and he’s still at 35.8 MPG. With a down scoring trend and no historical defender matchup data available, the cleaner angle is on lower-variance distribution or combination props rather than a high points number.

ProjectedPTS: 11.5-18.1-24.7REB: 3.5-6.5-9.5AST: 3.8-6.2-8.6

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Luka Dončić▼ LAL	Points	33.5Proj	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	40%	+7.4%	32	✓
Austin Reaves▼ LAL	Assists	4.5fanduel	OVER	66%MEDIUM	90%	+7.0%	5	✓
Jalen Duren▼ DET	Points	22.5fanduel	UNDER	72%MEDIUM	40%	+17.2%	20	✓
Jaxson Hayes▼ LAL	Points	6.5Proj	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	60%	+5.8%	11	✗
Caris LeVert▼ DET	Assists	2.5fanduel	OVER	67%HIGH	50%	+16.4%	4	✓

Model Comparison

5 models · 11 props compared

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Props Shown

11 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Caris LeVert

Assists OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the slate: a 16.4% edge at Fanduel and 3.4 APG over his last 5 versus a 2.5 line. The recent assist form is better than his 2.7 season average, and the book number is still too low.

Jalen Duren

Points UNDER 22.5MEDIUM

Even with his recent surge, the season average is 19.2 PPG, and the 22.5 line requires him to stay well above baseline. The under still carries a strong 17.2% edge at Fanduel.

Austin Reaves

Assists OVER 4.5MEDIUM

Reaves has 5.6 APG over his last 5 and 6.0 APG over his last 10, so the 4.5 assist line is below his recent playmaking level. Fanduel’s line gives us a 7.0% edge.

Parlay of the Game

Caris LeVert — Assists OVER 2.5Leg 1

Jalen Duren — Points UNDER 22.5Leg 2

Austin Reaves — Assists OVER 4.5Leg 3

LeVert and Reaves both lean toward assist production based on recent usage, while Duren’s points under balances the parlay with a different game script. The Lakers have been playing high-minute stars, and the Pistons’ short-handed rotation creates more distribution for secondary handlers than for clean scoring overs.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Detroit injury impact is meaningful: Cade Cunningham is Out, with 24.5 PPG and 9.9 APG removed from the lineup, and Isaiah Stewart is Out at 10.0 PPG and 5.1 RPG. Marcus Smart is also Out for the Lakers, which matters because his status is injury-related and he is listed as Out, while Austin Reaves and Luka Dončić are Available.