AI Model:

Duncan Robinson▲

DET · SG

PPG

11.9

RPG

2.7

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

9.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.3

11.9

9.6

RPG+0.9

2.7

3.6

APG+0.8

2.0

2.8

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 15 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 3 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 15 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 19 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 14 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 1 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 14 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 11 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

60%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

55%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

PRA

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

9.8

RPG

2.6

3.0

APG

3.2

2.0

vs LAL (H2H)10 games

PPG

11.2

RPG

3.3

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Isaac Okoro	4	17	0%	-44.8%	medium
Sam Merrill	3	15	69%	+5.2%	medium
Tre Johnson	3	14	64%	+12.3%	medium
Ben Sheppard	3	13	14%

Pistons usage boost keeps Robinson in play, but scoring remains capped

Duncan Robinson comes in with season averages of 11.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 27.6 MPG, while his last-10 form is steady at 11.1 PPG with 2.3 threes made. The team context matters here: Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser are all out, which should help absorb additional minutes and touches for remaining rotation pieces. Even so, his recent points output has cooled to 9.6 over the last 5 and this matchup shows no clear defender advantage from the provided data. With the Lakers allowing a negative scoring suppression profile and Robinson’s own three-point volume trending down, the profile leans slightly toward unders on scoring, while rebounds offer the cleaner value.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.6(↓ from 11.9)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 2.7)

APG

2.8(↑ from 2.0)

3PM

1.8(↓ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data does not provide a clear edge beyond the listed defender table, so there is no specific defender matchup data. The broader opponent context shows a 114.99 defensive rating and a three-suppression figure of -0.486, which is a slight headwind for his perimeter scoring profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Duncan Robinson▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	12	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	PRA	16.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+R14UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Duncan Robinson

Rebounds OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest value on the board because the data includes a 10.2% edge at DraftKings and the best_edge remains above 5% across multiple books. His rebounds have also been stable-to-improving recently at 2.9 over the last 10 and 3.6 over the last 5, giving the over a solid statistical base.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jake LaRavia	2	9	4	33%	33%
Marcus Smart	1	4	2	0%	0%
Luke Kennard	1	3	3	0%	0%
Luka Dončić	2	1	2	25%	25%
Jarred Vanderbilt	1	1	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 11.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.87 points and the recent mean is 11.1, but the last-5 is down to 9.6. With his three-point makes also down to 1.8 over the last 5, the under is slightly favored at this number.

reboundsOVER 2.567%MEDIUM

The value data shows a 10.2% edge on the over at this line, with a projected over probability of 0.594. His recent rebound rate is 2.9 on the last 10 and 3.6 over the last 5, supporting the plus side.

assistsUNDER 2.555%MEDIUM

Season assists are 2.03 and recent assists are 2.6, but the season baseline is modest and the prop sits at 2.5. With variance meaningful and no negative edge provided for the over, the under is the more conservative side.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.79 threes season-long, but the last-5 has fallen to 1.8 and the opponent defense context includes three suppression data. That combination makes the under more attractive than paying for the over.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.91 and the last-5 is only 0.6, both well below 1.5. This is a low-frequency category for him, so the under is the logical lean.

praUNDER 16.556%MEDIUM

Season PRA is 16.6 and recent production is not showing a strong push above that level, with last-5 points down to 9.6. Because combo props carry more variance, the under is preferred but with moderate confidence.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS