AI Model:

Austin Reaves—

LAL · SG

PPG

23.5

RPG

4.8

APG

5.5

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.5

23.5

21.0

RPG+0.2

4.8

5.0

APG+0.1

5.5

5.6

SPG+0.3

1.1

1.4

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

OVER 4.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

4.5

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 7 ast

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 5 ast

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 5 ast

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 8 ast

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 7 ast

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 6 ast

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 5 ast

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 8 ast

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 4 ast

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 5 ast

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

79%

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

56%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

PRA

UNDER 30.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.2

17.3

RPG

4.5

3.9

APG

5.2

4.9

vs DET (H2H)7 games

PPG

10.7

RPG

4.0

APG

3.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donte DiVincenzo	4	17	77%	+5.5%	medium
Keyonte George	2	11	91%	+32.8%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	9	39%	-15.7%	medium
Brandin Podziemski	3	8	25%

Reaves’ playmaking edge stands out, but scoring is priced a bit high

Austin Reaves is averaging 23.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 5.5 APG on the season, and his recent minutes have jumped to 38.8 MPG over the last 10 with 6.0 APG in that span. His assist profile is the cleanest angle: the value data shows multiple books hanging 4.5 assists, while his recent form and opponent context support that number better than his points. Scoring is more volatile, with his last 5 PPG at 21.0 versus a 23.5 season mean, and the available point lines are mostly shaded high enough to make the under more attractive. The matchup context is favorable enough to keep his floor solid, but the better bet is on distribution rather than a scoring spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↓ from 23.5)

APG

5.6(→ from 5.5)

RPG

5.0(→ from 4.8)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 109.53 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -1.314 with three-point suppression of -1.08. He also has no specific defender matchup data from the provided information, so the read is driven more by the team-level environment than any single defender.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Austin Reaves▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	79%HIGH	1/2	90%	5	✓
Austin Reaves▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	24	✗
Austin Reaves▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Austin Reaves▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Austin Reaves▼	PRA	30.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	31	✗

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Austin Reaves

Assists OVER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest positive-EV play in the data, with a 6.2% edge at DraftKings and a 5.1% edge at BetMGM on the same 4.5 line. Reaves is already averaging 5.5 APG for the season and 6.0 APG in his last 10, and his recent playing time has climbed to 38.8 MPG, which supports the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daniss Jenkins	1	7	8	67%	67%
Javonte Green	1	3	0	0%	0%
Tobias Harris	1	2	2	20%	20%
Ausar Thompson	1	2	0	0%	0%
Duncan Robinson	1	2	3	50%	75%

assistsOVER 4.579%HIGH

He has averaged 5.5 APG on the season and 6.0 APG over the last 10, with minutes up to 38.8 MPG recently. The value data shows a 6.2% edge at DraftKings on 4.5 assists, making this the strongest prop on the board.

pointsUNDER 21.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 23.5 PPG, but the last 5 are down to 21.0 PPG and the last 20 are 19.9 PPG. With the market posting 21.5 at FanDuel and the historical over bias caution, the under is the better side.

reboundsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

Reaves is at 4.8 RPG for the season and 5.0 RPG over the last 5, so 4.5 is a modest bar. This is only a small lean because rebound variance is moderate and the edge is not strong.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.36 threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 5, both below this 2.5 line. The recent dip and the lack of positive value support make the under the safer side.

praUNDER 30.555%MEDIUM

His season outputs project to a combo line that is close but not clearly above 30.5, and combo props carry added variance. With points trending down and PRA pricing already efficient, the under is the conservative lean.

timelineOVER 4.5 AST