AI Model:

Jaxson Hayes▲

LAL · C

PPG

6.7

RPG

4.0

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

4.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.7

6.7

4.0

RPG-0.2

4.0

3.8

APG-0.5

0.9

0.4

SPG0.0

0.4

BPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

UNDER 5.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

5.5

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 4 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 19 pts

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 5 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 5 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 0 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 1 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 6 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 8 pts

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

P+R

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.0

6.3

RPG

4.2

4.0

APG

1.2

0.8

vs DET (H2H)7 games

PPG

4.6

RPG

3.4

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ivica Zubac	3	14	62%	-14.1%	medium
Oso Ighodaro	4	13	33%	-42.3%	medium
Jusuf Nurkić	3	13	79%	-4.2%	medium
Jay Huff	2	12	85%

Hayes’ blocks are live, but scoring and boards stay capped

Jaxson Hayes enters this matchup with a season line of 6.7 points and 4.0 rebounds in 17.6 MPG, while his last-10 scoring sits at 6.5 PPG and his last-5 has dipped to 4.0 PPG. His defensive production remains steady, with 0.7 BPG on the season and 1.3 stocks over the last 10, but his role still looks rotation-sized rather than expanded. The opponent is missing multiple players, which helps the overall environment, yet Hayes’ own head-to-head sample is modest at 4.57 PPG and 3.43 RPG across 7 games. With his minutes usually in the high teens and rebound volume not spiking, the stronger angle is avoiding overs on his main counting stats.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.0(↓ from 6.7)

RPG

3.8(→ from 4.0)

APG

0.4(↓ from 0.9)

BPG

1.2(↑ from 0.7)

Key Matchup

The data lists Paul Reed, Jalen Duren, and Ronald Holland II among the available defender entries, but there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. Detroit’s opponent profile shows a 109.53 defensive rating and 100 pace, with scoring suppression at -1.314, which points to a relatively controlled scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaxson Hayes▼	Points	5.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✗
Jaxson Hayes▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Jaxson Hayes▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Jaxson Hayes▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	4	✓
Jaxson Hayes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	6	✗
Jaxson Hayes▼	P+R	9.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)6/1932%▼

REB5UNDER59%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PRA15UNDER10%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)5/1926%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

PTS8OVER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/1942%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

FTM2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

FTA3OVER4%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/1947%▼

R+A5.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/1958%▼

BLK1OVER2%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x7/1937%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Jaxson Hayes

Blocks OVER 0.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 0.7 blocks and his last-10 is 0.9, both comfortably above the line. The recent form is especially strong at 1.2 blocks over the last 5, and the low threshold keeps the ask manageable.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Duren	2	5	6	40%	40%
Paul Reed	2	4	4	67%	67%
Isaiah Stewart	1	1	0	0%	0%
Ronald Holland II	1	1	4	67%	67%
Javonte Green	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 5.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.7 PPG, but the last-5 has fallen to 4.0 and his head-to-head mark vs this opponent is only 4.57 PPG. The 5.5 line is playable, but the recent drop makes the under the safer side despite opponent absences.

reboundsUNDER 4.566%MEDIUM

He averages 4.0 RPG on the season and 4.3 over the last 10, which is still below this line. The last-5 rebound average is 3.8 and his matchup history is 3.43 RPG, keeping the under in focus.

assistsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

Hayes averages 0.9 APG on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so he clears 0.5 more often than not. The role is still small, so confidence stays modest, but the line is low.

blocksOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 BPG on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, with 1.2 blocks per game in the last 5. That recent rim-protection form supports the over at a low 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.05 and the last-10 is 1.3, both below 1.5. Even with recent defensive activity, the combined steals-plus-blocks number still sits short of this threshold.

prUNDER 9.563%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 10.7, but the last-5 combination is only 7.8 and the last-10 is 10.8. Given the volatility and his recent scoring dip, the under is the more conservative call.

timelineUNDER 5.5 PTS