AI Model:

Marcus Smart▼

LAL · SF

PPG

9.5

RPG

2.8

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

10.4

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.9

9.5

10.4

RPG-1.0

2.8

1.8

APG-0.4

2.8

2.4

SPG+0.6

1.4

2.0

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

OVER 2.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

2.5

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 7 ast

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 2 ast

IND

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs IND: 3 ast

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 4 ast

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 1 ast

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 2 ast

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 1 ast

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 4 ast

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 4 ast

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 1 ast

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

83%

PTS

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

AST

OVER 2.5BETMGM

83%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

8.7

RPG

2.5

1.9

APG

3.3

2.3

vs DET (H2H)12 games

PPG

12.8

RPG

3.4

APG

6.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	3	17	94%	+26.8%	medium
James Harden	3	14	60%	+10.1%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	13	94%	+37.9%	medium
Ja Morant	2	12	33%

Assist upside stands out, but scoring is more volatile than the market suggests

Marcus Smart is coming in with a season line of 9.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG, while his last-10 assist average has ticked up to 2.9 and his last-5 minutes have climbed to 32.8. The value data is strongest on assists, where the 2.5 line shows a 18.1% edge at DraftKings and similar positive edges across multiple books, making it the clearest plus-EV angle. Scoring is steadier than his recent spike suggests, with season and recent means both sitting at 9.5 points, and the opponent defense profile does not point to an obvious pace boost. The matchup context is helped by opponent absences, but with no specific defender matchup data, the best approach is to lean on role-driven props rather than chasing a big scoring ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.4(↑ from 9.5)

APG

2.4(↓ from 2.8)

RPG

1.8(↓ from 2.8)

Stocks

2.2(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 109.53 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -1.314, while opponent absences should still create extra playmaking opportunity.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Marcus Smart▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	83%HIGH	1/2	50%
Marcus Smart▼	Points	8.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Marcus Smart▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Marcus Smart▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Marcus Smart▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Marcus Smart▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%
Marcus Smart▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	83%HIGH	1/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

REB2.5UNDER20%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R11.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

PRA14.5UNDER18%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

3PA5UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

P+A12UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

AST3UNDER5%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

FTM0.5UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA1.5OVER5%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS9OVER0%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

STL1UNDER48%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Marcus Smart

Assists OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board, with multiple books showing a strong positive edge and DraftKings at 18.1%. Smart's recent role supports it too: 2.9 assists over the last 10, 3.03 at home, and 3.29 in b2b situations.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cade Cunningham	1	3	4	40%	40%
Duncan Robinson	1	2	0	0%	0%
Javonte Green	1	1	0	0%	0%
Marcus Sasser	1	1	3	50%	75%
Jalen Duren	1	1	2	100%	100%

assistsOVER 2.583%HIGH

Value props show an 18.1% edge at DraftKings with our projected over probability at 0.668. His last-10 assists are 2.9, above the 2.8 season mean, and opponent absences should support more on-ball creation.

pointsOVER 8.561%MEDIUM

The best available value is only a 7.5% edge at DraftKings, so this is playable but not elite. His season mean is 9.5 points and recent mean is 9.5, but the scoring profile is volatile with a 5.56 season standard deviation.

reboundsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

His season rebound mean is 2.8 and recent mean is 2.1, so this is close to fair rather than a strong edge. The 1.78 season standard deviation keeps confidence modest, and the value data only clears the threshold slightly at 4.4%.

threesUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

No positive edge is shown for the over; every listed book has negative edge on 1.5 threes. His season mean is 1.61 and recent mean is 1.9, but the lack of value and the opponent's three suppression make the under the better side.

stealsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He is averaging 1.4 steals on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, with last-5 steals at 2.0. The line is high at 1.5, but his defensive activity is strong enough to consider the over if price is reasonable.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks rate is 1.76 and recent mean is 2.3, both above the 1.5 benchmark. This is a higher-variance combo-style look, so confidence stays moderate.