AI Model:

Jalen Duren—

DET · C

PPG

19.2

RPG

10.5

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

26.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.4

19.2

26.6

RPG-0.1

10.5

10.4

APG-1.1

1.7

0.6

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

22.5

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 7 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 17 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 24 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 26 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 30 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 36 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 24 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 23 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5FANDUEL

77%

REB

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

P+R

UNDER 32.5FANDUEL

64%

P+A

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.5

21.8

RPG

11.4

9.1

APG

1.5

1.3

vs LAL (H2H)7 games

PPG

8.6

RPG

9.6

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nic Claxton	4	27	57%	-7.5%	medium
Onyeka Okongwu	4	25	61%	-12.0%	medium
Neemias Queta	3	23	71%	+6.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	4	23	75%

Duren’s usage spike is real, but the books still lean to a modest scoring under

Jalen Duren enters with season averages of 19.2 PPG and 10.5 RPG, but his recent scoring surge to 26.6 PPG over the last 5 is well above that baseline and could regress toward his season mean. The injury context matters: Cade Cunningham (24.5 PPG, 9.9 APG) and Isaiah Stewart (10.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) are both out, which supports Duren’s role and rebounding volume. Even with the increased responsibility, the available market data still prices his points closer to the low-20s, while his season matchup history vs this opponent is only 8.57 PPG and 9.57 RPG across 7 games. Overall, the best angle is to respect the elevated role but avoid chasing the hot streak too aggressively.

Stat Trends

PPG

26.6(↑ from 19.2)

RPG

10.4(→ from 10.5)

APG

0.6(↓ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 114.99 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring suppression of -0.078, and three suppression of -0.486. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the analysis should lean on the team-level profile and Duren’s own opponent history of 8.57 PPG and 9.57 RPG across 7 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Duren▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	2/2	40%	20	✓
Jalen Duren▼	Rebounds	10.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	50%	3	✗
Jalen Duren▼	P+R	32.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	31	✓
Jalen Duren▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A24UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R32UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Duren

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

This is the clearest value spot because the under has a pre-calculated 18.1% edge and 33.36 EV/100 at BetRivers, with similar support across other books. Duren’s season scoring average is 19.2, his head-to-head scoring vs this opponent is only 8.57 across 7 games, and the recent 26.6 PPG run is far above his baseline and vulnerable to regression.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Deandre Ayton	2	12	4	40%	40%
Jaxson Hayes	2	6	0	0%	0%
Luka Dončić	2	2	14	33%	40%
LeBron James	2	2	0	0%	0%
Austin Reaves	1	1	1	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 22.577%HIGH

His season mean is 19.18 points, and the value data shows the UNDER at 22.5 has strong support with a 18.1% edge and 33.36 EV/100 at BetRivers. The last-5 surge to 26.6 is well above season level, so regression risk is high even with the added usage from Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart being out.

reboundsUNDER 10.558%MEDIUM

Season rebounds are 10.53 and the last-10 is 9.2, so this is close to fair but slightly tilted down by recent form. His opponent history is 9.57 RPG in 7 games, which supports a modest under lean despite the home split showing 11.46 RPG.

assistsUNDER 1.574%HIGH

Duren averages only 1.65 assists on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, with just 0.6 over the last 5. The under is also the clearer market-side lean at this line, and his role profile does not suggest sustained playmaking volume.

prUNDER 32.564%MEDIUM

His season PRA base is strong from scoring and rebounding, but the combo line adds variance and our guidance is to be conservative on combo props. With assists trending down and points likely to regress from 26.6, the under has the cleaner profile.

paUNDER 23.561%MEDIUM

He is at 19.2 PPG and 1.7 APG on the season, so points plus assists land near the low-20s without needing a big outlier scoring night. The recent assist drop to 0.6 over the last 5 further supports the under.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS