Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 4 | 22 | 33% | -8.5% | medium |
| Tre Jones | 3 | 12 | 50% | +8.2% | medium |
| Tyrese Maxey | 2 | 11 | 27% | -18.7% | low |
| CJ McCollum | 2 | 10 | 77% |
Daniss Jenkins is trending up, with his last 5 jumping to 11.2 PPG and 6.0 APG in 26.8 MPG versus season marks of 8.0 PPG and 3.2 APG in 17.9 MPG. The biggest context driver is the teammate absences: Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser are all out, which supports a larger playmaking load for Jenkins. Still, the matchup profile is not especially friendly for scoring, as the opponent shows 114.99 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring suppression, while his prior meeting with this opponent was just 0 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist in 4 minutes. Expect his assist chances to be the cleanest path, with points more likely to settle below the current market.
No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context shows a 114.99 defensive rating, pace of 100, and -0.078 scoring suppression with -0.486 three suppression, which does not strongly support an easy scoring environment.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Points | 14.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 30 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Assists | 6.5 | UNDER | 79%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 8 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 77%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 4 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 80% | 4 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | P+A | 21.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 80% | 38 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | P+R | 17.5 | UNDER | 80%HIGH | 2/2 | 90% | 34 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest fade because the season average is 8.0 PPG, the last 20 is 7.9, and even the last 5 at 11.2 still trails 14.5. The role increase from teammate absences boosts his outlook, but the market has already priced in a meaningful bump, and his prior game vs this opponent was minimal.
| low |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 3 | 9 | 0% | -41.8% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 1 | 7 | 9 | 57% | 64% |
| Luke Kennard | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jake LaRavia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Luka Dončić | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| LeBron James | 1 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
Season scoring is 8.0 PPG and even the recent 5-game average of 11.2 is still below 14.5. The last 20 games sit at 7.9 PPG, and his away scoring is only 6.5 PPG.
He has averaged 3.2 APG on the season and 4.9 over the last 10, so 6.5 is still above his typical output. His season std is 3.12, which adds volatility, but the season baseline and last 20 at 3.0 APG lean under.
He averages 2.0 RPG on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, both below 3.5. Even with the recent minutes bump, his home mean is 2.9 RPG, still short of the line.
He averages 0.88 made threes per game on the season and 0.8 in the last 10, so 1.5 is above his normal range. His away mean is 0.7 and recent volume remains modest.
He is at 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, but 1.5 is still a high ask for a volatile stat. His season std is 1.25, so confidence should stay restrained.
He averages 1.12 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, and that recent defensive activity supports a modest over lean. The variance is high, so this is only a medium-confidence angle.
His combined production is 11.2 points and 6.0 assists over the last 5, and season means are 8.0 points plus 3.2 assists, both well below 21.5 combined. This is a large number relative to his normal role.
Season points plus rebounds are 10.0, and his last 5 sits at 14.6, both below 17.5. The elevated minutes help, but not enough to bridge that gap cleanly.