AI Model:

Daniss Jenkins▲

DET · PG

PPG

8.0

RPG

2.0

APG

3.2

L5 PPG

11.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

8.0

11.2

RPG+1.4

2.0

3.4

APG+2.8

3.2

6.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 11 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 4 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 14 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 15 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 9 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 22 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

AST

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

79%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

77%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

74%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

71%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

63%

P+A

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

78%

P+R

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

80%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.6

6.5

RPG

2.9

1.8

APG

3.4

2.5

vs LAL (H2H)1 games

PPG

0.0

RPG

1.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	4	22	33%	-8.5%	medium
Tre Jones	3	12	50%	+8.2%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	2	11	27%	-18.7%	low
CJ McCollum	2	10	77%

Jenkins’ role boost keeps assists in play, but scoring is capped

Daniss Jenkins is trending up, with his last 5 jumping to 11.2 PPG and 6.0 APG in 26.8 MPG versus season marks of 8.0 PPG and 3.2 APG in 17.9 MPG. The biggest context driver is the teammate absences: Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser are all out, which supports a larger playmaking load for Jenkins. Still, the matchup profile is not especially friendly for scoring, as the opponent shows 114.99 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring suppression, while his prior meeting with this opponent was just 0 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist in 4 minutes. Expect his assist chances to be the cleanest path, with points more likely to settle below the current market.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.2(↑ from 8.0)

APG

6.0(↑ from 3.2)

MPG

26.8(↑ from 17.9)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context shows a 114.99 defensive rating, pace of 100, and -0.078 scoring suppression with -0.486 three suppression, which does not strongly support an easy scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Daniss Jenkins▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	80%	30	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	1/2	60%	8	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	1/2	70%	4	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	4	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	60%	0	✓
Daniss Jenkins▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	P+A	21.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	80%	38	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	90%	34	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A19.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 5x12/2060%▼

R+A9OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

P+R16.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 10x12/2060%▼

Featured Pick

Daniss Jenkins

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fade because the season average is 8.0 PPG, the last 20 is 7.9, and even the last 5 at 11.2 still trails 14.5. The role increase from teammate absences boosts his outlook, but the market has already priced in a meaningful bump, and his prior game vs this opponent was minimal.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Austin Reaves	1	7	9	57%	64%
Luke Kennard	1	3	0	0%	0%
Jake LaRavia	1	2	3	100%	150%
Luka Dončić	1	1	2	50%	50%
LeBron James	1	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 14.582%HIGH

Season scoring is 8.0 PPG and even the recent 5-game average of 11.2 is still below 14.5. The last 20 games sit at 7.9 PPG, and his away scoring is only 6.5 PPG.

assistsUNDER 6.579%HIGH

He has averaged 3.2 APG on the season and 4.9 over the last 10, so 6.5 is still above his typical output. His season std is 3.12, which adds volatility, but the season baseline and last 20 at 3.0 APG lean under.

reboundsUNDER 3.577%HIGH

He averages 2.0 RPG on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, both below 3.5. Even with the recent minutes bump, his home mean is 2.9 RPG, still short of the line.

threesUNDER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 0.88 made threes per game on the season and 0.8 in the last 10, so 1.5 is above his normal range. His away mean is 0.7 and recent volume remains modest.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He is at 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, but 1.5 is still a high ask for a volatile stat. His season std is 1.25, so confidence should stay restrained.

stocksOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.12 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, and that recent defensive activity supports a modest over lean. The variance is high, so this is only a medium-confidence angle.

paUNDER 21.578%HIGH

His combined production is 11.2 points and 6.0 assists over the last 5, and season means are 8.0 points plus 3.2 assists, both well below 21.5 combined. This is a large number relative to his normal role.

prUNDER 17.580%HIGH

Season points plus rebounds are 10.0, and his last 5 sits at 14.6, both below 17.5. The elevated minutes help, but not enough to bridge that gap cleanly.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS