AI Model:

LeBron James▼

LAL · PF

PPG

21.1

RPG

5.9

APG

6.8

L5 PPG

19.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.9

21.1

19.2

RPG+1.5

5.9

7.4

APG-1.6

6.8

5.2

SPG+0.5

1.1

1.6

BPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

OVER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

GSW

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs GSW: 22 pts

SAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAC: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 16 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 18 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 30 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 19 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 12 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

62%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

57%

P+R

OVER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

P+A

OVER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.1

19.9

RPG

5.5

6.3

APG

7.8

6.2

vs DET (H2H)10 games

PPG

24.8

RPG

5.5

APG

7.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
John Collins	4	14	100%	+28.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	12	89%	+37.6%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	11	75%	-1.3%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	10	43%

LeBron’s scoring line looks too low, but the usage trend has been softer lately

LeBron James is averaging 21.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 6.8 APG on the season, with his last 5 dipping to 19.2 PPG and 5.2 APG while minutes have held strong at 35.8. The matchup data is favorable enough to support production: he has averaged 24.8 PPG and 7.7 APG in 10 games vs this opponent, and the opponent is missing Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser. Still, his recent scoring trend is down, so the strongest edge is on the low point line rather than chasing a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.2(↓ from 21.1)

RPG

7.4(↑ from 5.9)

APG

5.2(↓ from 6.8)

Key Matchup

LeBron has averaged 24.8 PPG and 7.7 APG in 10 games vs this opponent, while the opponent defense data shows a 109.53 defensive rating and the opponent is missing Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the primary edge comes from the overall matchup and absences rather than a named stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
LeBron James▼	Points	18.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	50%	12	✗
LeBron James▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	10	✓
LeBron James▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	9	✓
LeBron James▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✓
LeBron James▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	0	✗
LeBron James▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
LeBron James▼	P+R	23.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	21	✗
LeBron James▼	P+A	24.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

3PM1.5UNDER5%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 9x4/2020%+23.1% edge▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

PTS23.5UNDER43%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)3/2015%+28.5% edge▼

REB7.5UNDER24%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)5/2025%+13.5% edge▼

PRA39.5UNDER47%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)4/2020%+26.7% edge▼

AST9.5UNDER17%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+22.4% edge▼

3PA3UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

FTM3.5UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 6x10/2050%▼

P+A26UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

STL1.5UNDER45%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 7x7/2035%▼

FTA5OVER3%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x8/2040%▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

LeBron James

Points OVER 18.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 21.1 PPG, his opponent average is 24.8 PPG across 10 games, and the value data shows a 15.3% edge with 67.5% projected hit probability. Even with the recent scoring dip, the market line remains far below his normal production level.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ausar Thompson	2	9	0	0%	0%
Javonte Green	2	5	0	0%	0%
Tobias Harris	2	3	5	100%	125%
Duncan Robinson	2	3	0	0%	0%
Jalen Duren	2	1	2	50%	50%

pointsOVER 18.578%HIGH

His season average is 21.1 PPG and the value data shows a 15.3% edge on the OVER at 18.5 with an estimated 67.5% win probability. Even with a recent dip to 19.2 PPG over the last 5, this line is still well below his season and opponent history.

assistsOVER 5.563%MEDIUM

He averages 6.84 APG for the season and 7.8 APG at home, which supports the OVER at 5.5. The edge is smaller than points, but the line sits below both his season mean and his home split.

reboundsOVER 5.558%MEDIUM

LeBron is at 5.86 RPG for the season and 6.4 RPG over the last 10, so 5.5 is modestly beatable. Confidence is capped because rebound variance is higher and the prop edge is only modest.

threesUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages only 1.35 made threes per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, both below 1.5. The recent trend and season baseline both lean to the UNDER.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The line is playable, though defensive stats remain volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 blocks, but the last 5 have fallen to 0.2, which makes the UNDER slightly safer. This is still a high-variance stat, so confidence stays moderate.

prOVER 23.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is strong enough for 23.5, especially with the points line set very low at 18.5. Combo props carry more variance, so confidence stays conservative.

paOVER 24.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists baseline is 27.94, and he has averaged 32.5 PA over his last 20 games? Actually the provided rolling data supports a combined profile above this line through 21.1 PPG and 6.8 APG. The low line offers room, but combo volatility keeps this from being a high-confidence play.

timelineOVER 18.5 PTS