Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Collins | 4 | 14 | 100% | +28.7% | medium |
| Amen Thompson | 3 | 12 | 89% | +37.6% | medium |
| Royce O'Neale | 4 | 11 | 75% | -1.3% | medium |
| P.J. Washington | 3 | 10 | 43% |
LeBron James is averaging 21.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 6.8 APG on the season, with his last 5 dipping to 19.2 PPG and 5.2 APG while minutes have held strong at 35.8. The matchup data is favorable enough to support production: he has averaged 24.8 PPG and 7.7 APG in 10 games vs this opponent, and the opponent is missing Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser. Still, his recent scoring trend is down, so the strongest edge is on the low point line rather than chasing a ceiling game.
LeBron has averaged 24.8 PPG and 7.7 APG in 10 games vs this opponent, while the opponent defense data shows a 109.53 defensive rating and the opponent is missing Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the primary edge comes from the overall matchup and absences rather than a named stopper.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LeBron James▼ | Points | 18.5 | OVER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 50% | 12 | ✗ |
LeBron James▼ | Assists | 5.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 10 | ✓ |
LeBron James▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 9 | ✓ |
LeBron James▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
LeBron James▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
LeBron James▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
LeBron James▼ | P+R | 23.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 21 | ✗ |
LeBron James▼ | P+A | 24.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 22 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 21.1 PPG, his opponent average is 24.8 PPG across 10 games, and the value data shows a 15.3% edge with 67.5% projected hit probability. Even with the recent scoring dip, the market line remains far below his normal production level.
| medium |
| Aaron Gordon | 2 | 9 | 38% | -26.3% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ausar Thompson | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Javonte Green | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Tobias Harris | 2 | 3 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
| Duncan Robinson | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jalen Duren | 2 | 1 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
His season average is 21.1 PPG and the value data shows a 15.3% edge on the OVER at 18.5 with an estimated 67.5% win probability. Even with a recent dip to 19.2 PPG over the last 5, this line is still well below his season and opponent history.
He averages 6.84 APG for the season and 7.8 APG at home, which supports the OVER at 5.5. The edge is smaller than points, but the line sits below both his season mean and his home split.
LeBron is at 5.86 RPG for the season and 6.4 RPG over the last 10, so 5.5 is modestly beatable. Confidence is capped because rebound variance is higher and the prop edge is only modest.
He averages only 1.35 made threes per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, both below 1.5. The recent trend and season baseline both lean to the UNDER.
He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The line is playable, though defensive stats remain volatile.
His season average is 0.6 blocks, but the last 5 have fallen to 0.2, which makes the UNDER slightly safer. This is still a high-variance stat, so confidence stays moderate.
His season points plus rebounds profile is strong enough for 23.5, especially with the points line set very low at 18.5. Combo props carry more variance, so confidence stays conservative.
His season points plus assists baseline is 27.94, and he has averaged 32.5 PA over his last 20 games? Actually the provided rolling data supports a combined profile above this line through 21.1 PPG and 6.8 APG. The low line offers room, but combo volatility keeps this from being a high-confidence play.