Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe | 3 | 7 | 45% | -1.9% | medium |
| Desmond Bane | 3 | 7 | 50% | +8.1% | medium |
| Quentin Grimes | 3 | 7 | 33% | -8.6% | medium |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 3 | 6 | 133% |
Caris LeVert is producing 7.4 PPG, 1.9 RPG, and 2.7 APG in 19.5 MPG this season, with his last 10 sitting even lower at 6.0 PPG and 2.6 APG. His recent form is a little better over the last 5 games at 8.4 PPG and 3.4 APG, but that still looks close to his normal minute-driven output rather than a true breakout. The matchup does offer some support for his passing and scoring history, since he has averaged 14.6 PPG and 4.4 APG in 10 games vs this opponent, but his current workload and recent game logs keep the ceiling in check. With Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser out, LeVert has room for a slightly expanded role, but the biggest value still points to conservative unders on the main scoring and assist numbers.
LeVert has averaged 14.6 PPG and 4.4 APG in 10 games vs this opponent, but the opponent defense data also shows a 114.99 defensive rating and -0.486 three suppression. With key defender data available, there is no specific defender matchup data to project beyond the listed names and limited usage context.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Caris LeVert▼ | Points | 8.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 8 | ✓ |
Caris LeVert▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 4 | ✗ |
Caris LeVert▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 3 | ✓ |
Caris LeVert▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Caris LeVert▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
Caris LeVert▼ | P+A | 11.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 12 | ✗ |
This is the clearest value in the dataset: 3.5 assists shows a 6.3% edge at BetMGM and a 5.6% edge at DraftKings for the UNDER. LeVert’s season average is 2.7 APG, his last 10 are 2.6 APG, and even with teammate absences boosting usage, the line is still elevated relative to his normal distribution.
| medium |
| Will Riley | 3 | 5 | 50% | +8.1% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Luke Kennard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Luka Dončić | 1 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% |
| Austin Reaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jaxson Hayes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 7.4 PPG and his last 10 are only 6.0 PPG, so 8.5 is slightly above his typical output. He has also been under this level in multiple recent games, and the modest minute load limits upside.
The value data shows 3.5 assists with a strong UNDER lean and a 6.3% edge at BetMGM, plus 5.6% at DraftKings. Even with Cade Cunningham out, his season average is still just 2.7 APG and the line is a touch high relative to his baseline role.
He is averaging 2.5 RPG over the last 10 and 2.8 RPG over the last 5, which is above his 1.9 season average. The line is only 2.5, so the recent rebound trend supports a slight over lean, though variance is still moderate.
He averages 1.06 threes per game for the season and just 0.9 over the last 10, while the 1.5 line requires a stronger night than usual. The data also shows limited recent volume at 0.9 fg3mpg over the last 10.
His season stocks average is 1.52 and his last 20 are 1.4, so this is a fair but reachable mark. Because the standard deviation is meaningful and recent form has been slightly below season level, confidence stays modest.
His season baseline of 2.7 assists and 7.4 points points to a combined profile that sits close to this range, but not comfortably above it. With the projected role still under 20 minutes most nights, the under is the safer side.