AI Model:

Deandre Ayton—

LAL · C

PPG

12.5

RPG

8.3

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

9.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.1

12.5

9.4

RPG-0.3

8.3

8.0

APG+0.1

0.9

1.0

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

NOP

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DEN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NYK: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIN: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs DEN: 9 pts

HOU

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs HOU: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs HOU: 16 pts

MIA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIA: 6 pts

ORL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ORL: 9 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

84%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

P+R

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

7.1

RPG

8.5

6.7

APG

0.9

0.8

vs DET (H2H)9 games

PPG

16.4

RPG

10.0

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	21	83%	+15.9%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	20	50%	-17.4%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	14	75%	+7.6%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	14	90%

Ayton’s minutes are steady, but the scoring ceiling looks capped

Deandre Ayton is averaging 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds on the season, with recent form dipping to 10.3 points and 8.0 rebounds over his last 10. His home split is stronger than his away production, and this game is on the road, which nudges the projection down slightly from his season baseline. The matchup is also not a pure plus spot for scoring, as Detroit’s opponent defense data shows a 109.53 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Ayton’s recent game logs have been volatile with multiple single-digit scoring outings. Opponent absences help the frontcourt environment, but the market has already adjusted heavily on the most accessible lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.4(↓ from 12.5)

RPG

8.0(→ from 8.3)

APG

1.0(→ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the main available note is that Jalen Duren has 20.2 minutes with 15 points allowed and 0.6666666666666666 FG% allowed. Detroit’s opponent profile shows a 109.53 defensive rating and 100 pace, which does not strongly boost Ayton’s projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Deandre Ayton▼	Points	9.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	13	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	10	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Deandre Ayton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Deandre Ayton▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	23	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB6.5OVER1%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x13/1968%+17.7% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.426▼

P+R19UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PTS11.5UNDER17%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Line moved +1.0; Value edge changed -0.038▼

PRA19.5UNDER25%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%Line nudged -0.5▼

P+A12OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/1953%▼

Featured Pick

Deandre Ayton

Points OVER 9.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value angle because the market line is well below his 12.5 season average and 10.3 recent average, and the value data shows a 13.0% edge at this number. The road setting and recent scoring dip keep confidence from getting too high, but the over is still supported by both baseline production and pricing.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Duren	2	10	10	100%	100%
Paul Reed	2	3	0	0%	0%
Duncan Robinson	2	1	3	100%	150%
Tobias Harris	2	1	2	33%	33%
Ausar Thompson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 9.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.5 points and his recent mean is 10.3, both above 9.5, and value data shows a 13.0% edge on the over at this line. The recent dip is real, but this is still below his baseline and the book has priced the under aggressively.

reboundsOVER 7.560%MEDIUM

Ayton is at 8.3 rebounds per game this season and 8.0 over his last 5, so 7.5 is below his core production. The value screen also shows a 5.6% edge on the over, which clears the +EV threshold.

assistsUNDER 1.584%HIGH

He averages just 0.9 assists on the season and 0.9 over his last 10, making 1.5 a tough ask. The under is also heavily juiced, which matches the low assist profile.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

Ayton averages 0.9 blocks per game on the season and 1.0 over his last 5, so 0.5 is a favorable threshold. The variance is moderate, so this is playable but not a high-confidence spot.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.49 and recent production is 1.1, so this sits just under the meaningful volume range. Given the volatility and the lower recent rate, the under is the safer lean.

prUNDER 17.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 20.8, but the recent scoring drop and road split push this closer to the line than the season mean suggests. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the more conservative side.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS