NightlyHoops / 2026-03-25 / SAS vs MEM AI Model: NightlyHoops Board v2-gpt-5.4-mini Gemini Flash v3-gpt-4.1-nano GPT-5.4m
@
MEM
Grizzlies
24-47 | L10: 1-9
2026-03-25
Version History 3 versions
v3
Full Run 7:31 PM 12 changes
[Full run] 2 picks flipped (Dylan Harper, Victor Wembanyama), 1 line moved, 1 confidence change, 2 new props, 2 props removed, 2 new best bets, 2 best bets removed
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v2
Full Run 12:11 PM 9 changes
[Full run] 3 picks flipped (Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama), 1 line moved, 1 confidence change, 1 new prop, 1 prop removed, 1 new best bet, 1 best bet removed
expand_more v1
Full Run 10:09 AM Initial prediction
ML Game Intelligence HIGH SAS 82 - 80 MEM
Key Factors
* Spurs without De'Aaron Fox (18.7 PPG) - out (Back)* Grizzlies without Ja Morant (19.5 PPG) - out (Elbow)* Grizzlies without Jaren Jackson Jr. (19.4 PPG) - out (Knee)* Grizzlies without Zach Edey (13.6 PPG) - out (Ankle)* Grizzlies without Santi Aldama (14.0 PPG) - out (Knee)Key Matchup
Spurs has matchup advantages
Key Defensive Matchups SAS Players
De'Aaron Fox
Vince Williams Jr. 3g · 14m +0.0% 50% eFG medium
Jaylen Wells 3g · 6m +0.0% 75% eFG medium
Cam Spencer 3g · 4m +0.0% 100% eFG medium
Keldon Johnson
Jaylen Wells 3g · 7m +0.0% 50% eFG medium
Santi Aldama 3g · 6m +0.0% 29% eFG medium
The Spurs come in 54-18 with a 9-1 last-10 run and a 6-game streak, while Memphis is 24-47 and has gone 1-9 over its last 10 with a 3-game skid. Both teams are on 2 days rest, but Memphis is carrying a long injury list and the Spurs are still missing De'Aaron Fox, which shifts more creation toward the remaining San Antonio core.
Key Players Prop Picks Player Prop Line Pick Confidence Trend Evolution Edge Actual Result Victor Wembanyama▼
SAS
Points 27.5 betmgm UNDER 79% HIGH 50% 25.5→27.5 +23.8% 19 ✓ Victor Wembanyama▼
SAS
Blocks 2.5 stake UNDER 66% MEDIUM 30% — 0.0% 7 ✗ Stephon Castle▼
SAS
Assists 8.5 betrivers UNDER 58% LOW 50% FLIP +9.3% 9 ✗ Keldon Johnson▼
SAS
Points 10.5 Proj OVER 63% MEDIUM 50% — 0.0% 15 ✓ Dylan Harper▼
SAS
Points 11.5 draftkings OVER 57% LOW 60% FLIP +11.8% 10 ✗ Taylor Hendricks▼
MEM
Points 15.5 draftkings UNDER 74% HIGH 70% — +28.8% 2 ✓
Model Comparison 5 models · 22 props compared
Sort: Confidence Consensus Player
Show: All (22) 90%+ (1) 80%+ (7) 70%+ (13) 50%+ (22)
Props Shown
22
22 total on slate
Unanimous
20
Full agreement across submitted picks
Stephon Castle SAS R+A 11.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 90%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
OVER 11.5
Elite confidence
90% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Javon Small MEM assists over 6.5 6.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Victor Wembanyama SAS points over 25.5 25.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano
OVER 25.5
Elite confidence
85% v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Devin Vassell SAS points over 10.5 10.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano
OVER 10.5
Elite confidence
85% v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Stephon Castle SAS assists over 7.5 7.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Stephon Castle SAS AST 8.5 3/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
2/3 lean OVER Actual 9 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 8.5
Solid confidence
58% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Harrison Barnes SAS STK 0.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 84%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 0 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Victor Wembanyama SAS PTS 27.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 79%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 19 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 27.5
High confidence
79% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Keldon Johnson SAS AST 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 79%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 3 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Dylan Harper SAS AST 2.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 78%
Unanimous OVER Actual 6 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Victor Wembanyama SAS REB 11.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 78%
Unanimous OVER Actual 15 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Taylor Hendricks MEM PTS 15.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 74%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 2 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 15.5
High confidence
74% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Taylor Hendricks MEM 3PM 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 72%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 0 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Rayan Rupert MEM 3PM 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 67%
Unanimous UNDER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 1.5
Solid confidence
67% v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Victor Wembanyama SAS BLK 2.5 2/5 models submitted Best confidence 66%
Split 1/2 OVER Actual 7 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 2.5
Solid confidence
66% v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Stephon Castle SAS P+A 23.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 65%
Unanimous OVER Actual 24 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
OVER 23.5
Solid confidence
65% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Stephon Castle SAS PTS 15.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 65%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 15 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
UNDER 15.5
Solid confidence
65% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Keldon Johnson SAS PTS 10.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 63%
Unanimous OVER Actual 15 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
OVER 10.5
Solid confidence
63% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Stephon Castle SAS REB 4.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 60%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 3 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
UNDER 4.5
Solid confidence
60% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Stephon Castle SAS P+R 20.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 60%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 18 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
UNDER 20.5
Solid confidence
60% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Dylan Harper SAS PTS 11.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 57%
Unanimous OVER Actual 10 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
OVER 11.5
Solid confidence
57% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Stephon Castle SAS STL 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 55%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 0 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
UNDER 1.5
Solid confidence
55% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Featured Picks Victor Wembanyama Points UNDER 27.5 HIGH
His 24.27 PPG season mean is well below the line, and the model still prefers the under by 23.8% at betmgm with +42.89 EV/100. The recent 28.4 PPG over the last 10 is hot, but season production is the more stable guide.
Taylor Hendricks Points UNDER 15.5 HIGH
A 9.04 PPG season mean against a 15.5 line is too large a gap to ignore, and the value prop shows a 28.8% edge to the under with +56.04 EV/100. His last 10 at 12.7 PPG still sits below the market number.
Stephon Castle Assists UNDER 8.5 LOW
Castle is playing well, but the value board still has the under at 9.3% edge and his season mean is 7.08 APG. The last 5 at 9.2 APG is strong, yet the assist market is high-variance and should be sized conservatively.
Parlay of the Game Victor Wembanyama — Points UNDER 27.5 Leg 1
Taylor Hendricks — Points UNDER 15.5 Leg 2
Stephon Castle — Assists UNDER 8.5 Leg 3
These legs combine two strong under value spots with one high-variance assist look. The Wembanyama and Hendricks unders are anchored by season averages materially below their lines, while Castle's assist under adds upside if his recent surge normalizes.
Injury & Lineup Notes De'Aaron Fox is Out with Injury/Illness-LowBack, while Memphis remains without Brandon Clarke, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jaylen Wells, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Santi Aldama, Ty Jerome, Zach Edey and Zyon Pullin. The largest usage impact is Fox's absence for San Antonio, and Memphis's long injury list keeps rotation volatility elevated.
Player Deep Dives This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.
