AI Model:

Stephon Castle▼

SAS · SG

PPG

16.5

RPG

5.0

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

18.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

16.5

18.0

RPG+1.6

5.0

6.6

APG+2.1

7.1

9.2

SPG-0.4

1.2

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 30 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 15 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 23 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 3 pts

MIA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIA: 19 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5STAKE

70%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 7.5STAKE

63%

3PM

UNDER 1.5STAKE

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

68%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2.5

57%

P+A

OVER 23.5STAKE

56%

P+R

UNDER 20.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.1

13.5

RPG

6.8

4.0

APG

7.8

7.1

vs MEM (H2H)5 games

PPG

21.2

RPG

4.8

APG

4.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	22	59%	-2.0%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	4	21	34%	-15.9%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	20	43%	-9.4%	medium
Cade Cunningham	2	17	30%

Castle’s playmaking edge is real, but points are the safer fade

Stephon Castle is averaging 16.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 7.1 APG on the season, with his last 5 jumping to 18.0 PPG and 9.2 APG. That said, his scoring has been volatile all year, and his recent trend is down overall, while the opponent context is inflated by multiple absences that can boost opportunities without guaranteeing efficiency. He has been much stronger at home than away, but this game is on the road, where he’s at 13.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 7.1 APG. The best statistical lean is toward his assist volume staying solid, while points remain more vulnerable to regression and road conditions.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.0(↑ from 16.5)

RPG

6.6(↑ from 5.0)

APG

9.2(↑ from 7.1)

Stocks

1.0(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Memphis is allowing a 119.06 defensive rating, but its three suppression is 0.452 and the key available defender data is too limited to isolate a true on-ball matchup edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Stephon Castle▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	FLIP	15	✓
Stephon Castle▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		3	✗
Stephon Castle▼	Assists	7.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		9	✓
Stephon Castle▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		0	✓
Stephon Castle▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		0	✓
Stephon Castle▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	—	0	✓
Stephon Castle▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
Stephon Castle▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%		5	✓
Stephon Castle▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		24	✓
Stephon Castle▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	18	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A14UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Stephon Castle

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the cleanest market-supported angle: his road scoring is only 13.5 PPG, below the 15.5 line, and the value data shows UNDER at 17.5 with strong edge across multiple books. Even with teammate/opponent absences creating opportunity, his recent scoring is volatile and the season profile still leans under on this number.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cam Spencer	2	7	5	40%	40%
Cedric Coward	1	3	4	100%	100%
Jaren Jackson Jr.	1	2	7	60%	70%
Jaylen Wells	1	2	3	33%	50%
GG Jackson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.570%HIGH

Season mean is 16.5, but his road scoring is only 13.5 PPG and his last-10 is 16.3. The value data also points to UNDER at 17.5 with a 14.6% edge, which supports caution on the over.

reboundsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.0 RPG on the season, 5.8 over the last 10, and 6.6 over the last 5. The line is modest at 4.5, and his recent role has supported enough rebounding volume to lean over.

assistsOVER 7.563%MEDIUM

Castle is at 7.1 APG for the season and 8.7 APG over the last 10, with 9.2 APG in his last 5. The current line sits just above his season mean, but the recent passing surge keeps the over in play.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.14 made threes per game on the season and only 1.07 at home, with a recent 1.6 but still high variance. Since the line is 1.5, the season profile still slightly favors the under.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

His season mark is 1.2 steals, but the last 10 is just 0.7 and the last 5 is 0.8. The line requires a stronger defensive output than his recent form has shown.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season, well below a 0.5 line. This is a clean under based on volume and season profile.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

Castle’s season stocks average is 1.53, but that has dipped to 0.9 over the last 10 and 1.0 over the last 5. With the recent slide, the over is less attractive at a 1.5 line.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He has been at 2.6 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.0 over the last 5, so the ball-handling load has come with mistakes. That recent turnover volume makes the over a slight lean.

paOVER 23.556%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 23.6 using 16.5 PPG and 7.1 APG, and the recent assist spike helps offset scoring volatility. This is playable, but combo props carry more variance than single-stat bets.

prUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

Castle’s season points plus rebounds average is 21.5, but his road scoring drops to 13.5 PPG and that pulls the combo down. Because points are the shakier leg, the under is the safer lean.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS