AI Model:

Devin Vassell▼

SAS · SF

PPG

14.1

RPG

3.8

APG

2.5

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.1

14.1

13.0

RPG-1.2

3.8

2.6

APG+0.7

2.5

3.2

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 14 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 12 pts

MIA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIA: 6 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 20.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.4

15.8

RPG

3.1

4.4

APG

3.0

2.9

vs MEM (H2H)17 games

PPG

14.2

RPG

3.4

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	18	58%	+6.2%	medium
Devin Booker	4	13	58%	+6.2%	medium
Christian Braun	2	12	38%	-18.8%	low
Derrick Jones Jr.	3	12	67%

Vassell’s scoring floor is shaky, but the matchup and absences keep him in play

Devin Vassell is trending down, with his last-5 scoring at 13.0 PPG versus a season mark of 14.1, and his last-10 at 12.5 PPG. He’s still logging steady run at 30.6 MPG, but his home scoring has dipped to 11.4 PPG compared with 15.8 PPG away. With several opponent absences and no clear volatility spike beyond his normal range, the market is leaning more toward a modest stat line than a big ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(↓ from 14.1)

RPG

2.6(↓ from 3.8)

APG

3.2(↑ from 2.5)

Stocks

0.8(↓ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

The listed key defenders provide no specific defender matchup data, so the main note is team context: Memphis has a 119.06 defensive rating and 0.817 scoring suppression, which is not an especially soft scoring environment. The opponent also has multiple absences, but there is no individual defender detail to lean on beyond that.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Devin Vassell▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	19	✗
Devin Vassell▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	7	✗
Devin Vassell▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1.5→2.5	4	✓
Devin Vassell▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	4	✗
Devin Vassell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%		1	✓
Devin Vassell▼	PRA	20.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	—	30	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS14UNDER16%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

3PA6.5UNDER28%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

PRA19.5UNDER15%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

REB4.5UNDER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

AST3UNDER10%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2.5UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM1UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R18OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Devin Vassell

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 14.1 PPG, but his last-10 has slipped to 12.5 and the value props repeatedly show UNDER 13.5 as the best side with a 6.3% edge at DraftKings. His home scoring is also only 11.4 PPG, which supports a cautious projection rather than an overreaction to recent minutes stability.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Wells	2	6	7	40%	50%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	2	5	2	33%	33%
Cedric Coward	3	4	4	40%	40%
Tyler Burton	1	3	0	0%	0%
John Konchar	2	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 14.1 PPG, but the last-10 is down to 12.5 and the last-5 is 13.0. The value data also flags UNDER 13.5 with a 6.3% edge and our_prob_under at 0.591.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.8 RPG on the season, but only 3.2 RPG over the last-10 and 2.6 RPG over the last-5. The books are not giving enough cushion for his current rebound form, especially with recent games clustered below the season average.

assistsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

His recent playmaking is slightly above season level at 2.8 APG last-10 and 3.2 APG last-5 versus 2.5 APG on the year. The line sits at 2.5, and his recent minutes have remained stable at 30.6 MPG.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.49 threes per game on the season, but the last-10 is 2.3 and the last-5 is 2.4. The available value board also backs UNDER 2.5 with a 4.0% edge.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.21 stocks per game for the season and 1.1 over the last-10, both below a 1.5 threshold. With recent games mostly landing at 0-1 stocks, this is a tougher over to justify.

praUNDER 20.557%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, he projects to 20.4 PRA (14.1 points + 3.8 rebounds + 2.5 assists), which is right around the midpoint. Given the downward scoring trend and lower rebound form, the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS