AI Model:

Javon Small▼

MEM · SG

PPG

9.5

RPG

3.3

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

16.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.5

9.5

16.0

RPG+0.9

3.3

4.2

APG0.0

3.8

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 7 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 2 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 19 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 12 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 19 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 8 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CHA: 17 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5

58%

REB

OVER 3.5

61%

AST

OVER 3.5

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5

55%

UNDER 2

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

59%

PRA

OVER 16.6

52%

P+A

OVER 13.3

51%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.6

13.0

RPG

4.4

4.6

APG

5.0

3.2

vs SAS (H2H)1 games

PPG

0.0

RPG

1.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Brandin Podziemski	3	8	64%	+9.9%	medium
RayJ Dennis	1	6	0%	-47.2%	low
Scoot Henderson	2	6	50%	-7.2%	low
Reed Sheppard	2	5	0%

Heavy-usage spot, but the back injury keeps the ceiling in check

Javon Small’s role has clearly expanded with multiple teammates out, and his last 5 games show a strong production spike at 16.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 3.8 APG across 25.2 MPG. That said, his season line is still much lower at 9.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 3.8 APG, and his overall trend is down, so the recent surge is only partially bankable. Memphis also faces a defensive environment with San Antonio’s opponent defense showing a 111.69 rating and -0.84 scoring suppression, which does not create an obvious scoring boost. With the low-back questionable tag, his minutes and efficiency carry added risk even in an expanded role.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.0(↑ from 9.5)

RPG

4.2(↑ from 3.3)

APG

3.8(→ from 3.8)

Stocks

1.0(→ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is limited: Dylan Harper has 3.0 minutes with 2 points allowed and 0.2 FG% allowed, while Stephon Castle has 0.5 minutes with 3 points allowed and 0.5 FG% allowed. With no meaningful defender sample and San Antonio’s opponent defense showing 111.69 rating and -0.84 scoring suppression, there is no strong matchup boost from the data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Javon Small▼	Points	9.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	8	✗
Javon Small▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✗
Javon Small▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	5	✓
Javon Small▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Javon Small▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Javon Small▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Javon Small▼	PRA	16.6	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	16	✗
Javon Small▼	P+A	13.3	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	13	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5UNDER13%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS13UNDER14%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2.5UNDER3%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A17OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

AST4OVER1%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

STL1UNDER17%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM2UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x5/2025%▼

3PA4UNDER16%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

REB4UNDER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R17OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Javon Small

Rebounds OVER 3.5MEDIUM

The rebound profile is one of the cleaner spots: 3.3 RPG on the season, 4.6 RPG over the last 10, and 4.2 RPG over the last 5. His minutes have risen to 25.1 recently, and the teammate absences support a steadier floor on the glass.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dylan Harper	2	4	2	20%	20%
Jordan McLaughlin	2	4	5	100%	125%
Devin Vassell	1	3	7	100%	117%
Julian Champagnie	2	2	3	0%	0%
Keldon Johnson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 9.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.5 PPG, but the recent role bump is real with 16.0 PPG over the last 5 and 25.2 MPG. The questionable injury tag keeps confidence modest, but the volume increase supports a slight over lean.

reboundsOVER 3.561%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.3 RPG on the season and 4.2 RPG in the last 5, with 4.6 RPG over the last 10. The recent rebound trend plus extra minutes makes 3.5 workable.

assistsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

His season APG is 3.8 and last 10 sits at 4.0, while home games are even better at 5.0 APG. This is close to the line, but the expanded ball-handling role keeps the over in play.

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.44 made threes on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, with 2.0 at home. The volume is enough to edge over a 1.5 line, but the standard deviation keeps it volatile.

turnoversUNDER 257%MEDIUM

His season turnover average is 1.3 and last 10 is 1.8, both below 2.0. Even with more usage, this line still looks a touch high.

stocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.03 stocks on the season and 1.5 in the last 5, but the season baseline is still below this threshold. Since steals and blocks are volatile, the under is safer.

praOVER 16.652%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 16.06 using 9.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while recent production is much stronger. Combo props carry extra variance, so this is only a thin lean.

paOVER 13.351%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists is 13.3, and the last 10 scoring/creation output suggests room to clear that mark. The line is efficient, so confidence stays low.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS