AI Model:

Harrison Barnes—

SAS · PF

PPG

10.4

RPG

3.0

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

11.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.6

10.4

11.0

RPG0.0

3.0

APG0.0

2.0

SPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

OVER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

TOR

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs TOR: 8 pts

BKN

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs BKN: 3 pts

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 3 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 20 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 2 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 8 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 6 pts

IND

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs IND: 12 pts

MIA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIA: 13 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 7.5STAKE

63%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

57%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

UNDER 2

72%

P+A

OVER 8.5STAKE

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.7

9.5

RPG

3.8

2.5

APG

1.4

2.0

vs MEM (H2H)17 games

PPG

14.4

RPG

3.9

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	3	18	48%	-0.0%	medium
Saddiq Bey	4	16	36%	-16.9%	medium
Jaren Jackson Jr.	3	14	38%	-7.0%	medium
Rui Hachimura	3	11	42%

Barnes’ role is steady, but the scoring ceiling is capped

Harrison Barnes is sitting at 10.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 2.0 APG on the season, with his last 10 games dipping to 9.1 PPG and 1.6 APG. His recent minutes have also fallen to 21.1 MPG from a season mark of 26.5, which keeps his raw volume in check despite a stable trend. The matchup does come with extra opponent absences, but Memphis still profiles as a low-scoring environment for him based on the provided opponent defense data. Given the reduced minutes and his season baseline, his best angles lean toward modest production rather than an aggressive over.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.0(↑ from 10.4)

RPG

3.0(→ from 3.0)

APG

2.0(→ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data; the provided key defenders list does not identify a reliable primary matchup. Memphis is missing several rotation pieces, but the opponent defense inputs still show a 119.06 defensive rating and 0.817 scoring suppression, which is not an ideal setup for an aggressive ceiling projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Harrison Barnes▼	Points	7.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	11	✓
Harrison Barnes▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Harrison Barnes▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Harrison Barnes▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Harrison Barnes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Harrison Barnes▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Harrison Barnes▼	P+A	8.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA11.5UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

PTS8UNDER12%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

3PA4UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A9.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST1UNDER11%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM1.5UNDER29%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA0.5UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R10.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB2OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

Featured Pick

Harrison Barnes

Turnovers UNDER 2.0HIGH

Barnes has been extremely clean with the ball recently, posting 0.4 turnovers over the last 5 and 0.7 over the last 10. That sits far below a 2.0 line, making the under the most stable angle from the available data.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaren Jackson Jr.	3	14	10	38%	38%
Santi Aldama	3	8	4	67%	67%
Cedric Coward	3	3	3	33%	50%
Cam Spencer	4	2	5	67%	83%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 7.563%MEDIUM

He averages 10.4 points on the season and 11.0 over the last 5, both above 7.5. The value data also shows the OVER as the best side at multiple books, though the 21.1 recent MPG keeps the confidence moderate.

reboundsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

Barnes is at 3.0 RPG on the season and 3.0 over the last 5, so 2.5 is a low bar. The confidence is held down by his recent 21.1 MPG and relatively modest rebound profile.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 APG on the season and 2.0 at home, which is comfortably above 1.5. However, his recent assists are 1.6 over the last 10, so this is more of a light lean than a strong play.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 1.89 made threes on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, so 1.5 is below his normal output. His 3-point volume remains meaningful at 1.8 to 2.0 attempts per game in the recent sample.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, which supports a 0.5 line. The variance is high, so this stays a modest-confidence play.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 0.85 stocks for the season and 0.9 over the last 10, both below 1.5. This is a clear fade against a combo line that requires multiple defensive events.

turnoversUNDER 272%HIGH

His recent turnover rate is low at 0.4 over the last 5 and 0.7 over the last 10, well under 2.0. With his current role and minutes, it would take an outlier game to push him over.

paOVER 8.552%MEDIUM

He combines 10.4 points and 2.0 assists on the season, giving him a natural path over 8.5. The combo is still volatile, so confidence remains capped.

timelineOVER 7.5 PTS