AI Model:
PG
De'Aaron Fox▼
SAS · PG
PPG
18.7
RPG
3.8
APG
6.3
L5 PPG
16.8
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-1.9
18.7
16.8
RPG+0.4
3.8
4.2
APG-0.7
6.3
5.6
SPG-0.4
1.2
0.8
BPG+0.1
0.3
0.4
UNDER 17.5 PTS
Last 10 games
2
Current Streak
2
Longest Streak
UNDER
Streak Type
17.5
19
LAC
2026-03-06
2026-03-06 vs LAC: 19 pts
20
HOU
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs HOU: 20 pts
25
BOS
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 vs BOS: 25 pts
27
DEN
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs DEN: 27 pts
17
CHA
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs CHA: 17 pts
18
LAC
2026-03-16
2026-03-16 vs LAC: 18 pts
15
SAC
2026-03-17
2026-03-17 vs SAC: 15 pts
23
PHX
2026-03-19
2026-03-19 vs PHX: 23 pts
14
IND
2026-03-21
2026-03-21 vs IND: 14 pts
14
MIA
2026-03-23
2026-03-23 vs MIA: 14 pts
Over 17.5
Under 17.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 17.5STAKE
96%
AST
UNDER 5.5STAKE
96%
REB
UNDER 3.5STAKE
95%
3PM
UNDER 1.5
95%
STL
UNDER 0.5STAKE
90%
BLK
UNDER 0.5
90%
TO
UNDER 2
92%
P+A
UNDER 23.5STAKE
94%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
20.7
14.4
RPG
3.6
3.1
APG
6.7
5.9
vs MEM (H2H)16 games
PPG
21.1
RPG
4.4
APG
5.5
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams | 4 | 18 | 55% | -2.9% | medium |
| Vince Williams Jr. | 3 | 14 | 50% | -10.9% | medium |
| Collin Gillespie | 3 | 13 | 61% | -4.0% | medium |
| Anthony Edwards | 3 | 12 | 67% |
Fox’s absence shifts the board to a slower, lower-variance Spurs attack
De'Aaron Fox is listed as Out, and his recent production had already cooled, with his last 5 at 16.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 5.6 APG versus season marks of 18.7, 3.8, and 6.3. His home splits were stronger than away, but tonight is on the road for the Spurs, and his away scoring dipped to 14.4 PPG with 27.0 MPG. Memphis also carries a long injury list, but because Fox is unavailable, there is no active player projection to chase on his stat props. For this matchup, the key note is simply no specific defender matchup data, and the current context points away from any Fox overs.
Stat Trends
PPG
16.8(↓ from 18.7)
RPG
4.2(↑ from 3.8)
APG
5.6(↓ from 6.3)
Key Matchup
No specific defender matchup data. The bigger factor is Fox’s Out status, which removes any meaningful player-prop edge despite Memphis having several rotational absences.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Points | 17.5 | UNDER | 96%HIGH | 2/2 | 40% |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Assists | 5.5 | UNDER | 96%HIGH | 2/2 | 20% |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 95%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 95%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Steals | 0.5 | UNDER | 90%HIGH | 2/2 | 20% |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 90%HIGH | — | 80% |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 92%HIGH | — | 60% |
De'Aaron Fox▼ | P+A | 23.5 | UNDER | 94%HIGH | 2/2 | 40% |
ML Scout Analysis
R+A9.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼
P+A22.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼
P+R20UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼
Featured Pick
De'Aaron Fox
Points UNDER 17.5HIGH
Fox is listed as Out, so the under is the strongest available angle. His recent form was already below season pace at 16.8 PPG over the last 5, and the road context had him at 14.4 PPG away from home.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.