AI Model:

Julian Champagnie▼

SAS · PF

PPG

11.0

RPG

5.8

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

10.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.8

11.0

10.2

RPG-1.2

5.8

4.6

APG-0.3

1.5

1.2

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 20 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 8 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 7 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 17 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 14 pts

IND

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs IND: 10 pts

MIA

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MIA: 3 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 2.5

84%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

74%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.4

10.1

RPG

5.6

4.4

APG

1.7

1.6

vs MEM (H2H)11 games

PPG

9.7

RPG

3.9

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	14	63%	+6.5%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	14	40%	-13.5%	medium
Jake LaRavia	4	13	50%	-3.5%	medium
Desmond Bane	2	11	54%

Champagnie’s role is steady, but the scoring ceiling looks capped

Julian Champagnie is holding a stable minutes load at 27.6 MPG for the season, but his scoring trend is drifting down with 10.2 PPG over the last 5 and 9.9 over the last 10 versus 11.0 for the season. His home production is slightly better at 10.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 1.7 APG, but this matchup comes against a Memphis defense that has a 119.06 defensive rating and a 0.817 scoring suppression mark. With De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, and multiple Memphis rotation pieces out, the minutes should remain secure, but the most reliable angle still looks like a modest under on his scoring and combo markets rather than chasing a bounce-back.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.2(↓ from 11.0)

RPG

4.6(↓ from 5.8)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.5)

3PM

2.0(↓ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Memphis has a 119.06 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a 0.817 scoring suppression mark, while three-point suppression is listed at 0.452, which supports a modest lean toward lower scoring and fewer made threes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Julian Champagnie▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	FLIP	13	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	8	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	1/2	90%	1.5→2.5	2	✓
Julian Champagnie▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	3	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	FLIP	1	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%		1	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%		2	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	40%		15	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	13.5→14.5	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST2UNDER10%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x3/2015%▼

3PM2.5UNDER20%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

PRA19UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

REB6UNDER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PA6UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

P+A12.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

FTA0.5UNDER6%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+R16.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Julian Champagnie

Assists UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: he is at 1.46 APG for the season and 1.4 over the last 5, far below 2.5. The value table also shows a 13.8% edge for the UNDER with positive EV, making it the strongest recommendation.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cedric Coward	3	9	11	31%	38%
Vince Williams Jr.	3	5	5	40%	50%
Cam Spencer	4	5	9	43%	50%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	3	4	2	25%	25%
Jaylen Wells	3	4	7	75%	75%

pointsUNDER 11.572%HIGH

His season mean is 11.0 PPG, last 10 is 9.9, and his recent trend is down. The value data shows a 12.2% edge on the UNDER at 11.5, so the under is the strongest scoring side.

reboundsUNDER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 RPG for the season but only 4.6 over the last 5, and the recent games include several lower-rebound outcomes. The edge is thin, but the season-to-recent drift points slightly below the line.

assistsUNDER 2.584%HIGH

Champagnie is only at 1.46 APG for the season and 1.4 over the last 5, well below 2.5. The value prop data shows a 13.8% edge on the UNDER, making this the cleanest play.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.35 threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, which sits just under the posted line. With recent volume stable but not surging, the under is slightly favored.

stealsUNDER 0.555%MEDIUM

His season steal rate is 0.8, but recent output has cooled to 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.7 over the last 10. That still leaves some over chance, but the lower recent form keeps the under viable.

blocksUNDER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 BPG on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so the distribution is volatile and the season baseline is below the line. This is a higher-variance prop, but the under remains the lean.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.21 and the last 5 is 1.2, both below 1.5. The combined defensive counting stats are not consistent enough to justify an over.

paUNDER 10.574%HIGH

Points plus assists is being driven almost entirely by scoring, and his assist numbers are far too low to add much support. With 11.0 PPG and 1.46 APG season averages, the under is the better side.

prUNDER 14.567%MEDIUM

His season PR is about 16.77, but the recent scoring and rebounding dip matters here and the combo prop adds variance. Given the weaker last-5 form, the under is the more conservative call.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS