AI Model:

Rayan Rupert▼

MEM · SF

PPG

4.2

RPG

2.5

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

10.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.8

4.2

10.0

RPG+2.7

2.5

5.2

APG+0.4

0.8

1.2

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG+0.3

0.1

0.4

UNDER 4.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

4.5

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 8 pts

DAL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DAL: 5 pts

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 13 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 5 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 20 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 13 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 3 pts

ATL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs ATL: 0 pts

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 4.5

66%

REB

OVER 2.5

64%

AST

OVER 0.5

58%

3PM

OVER 0.5

60%

STL

OVER 0.5

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

71%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

67%

UNDER 1.5

69%

PRA

OVER 7.5

56%

P+A

OVER 5.5

55%

P+R

OVER 6.5

61%

UNDER 0.5

74%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.8

7.4

RPG

3.8

4.2

APG

1.1

0.8

vs SAS (H2H)6 games

PPG

2.5

RPG

0.8

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jose Alvarado	3	6	40%	+0.3%	medium
Leonard Miller	2	5	50%	+10.3%	low
Cooper Flagg	2	5	33%	-6.4%	low
Reed Sheppard	2	5	50%

Rupert’s expanded role keeps his defensive props and rebounds in play

Rayan Rupert’s season numbers are modest at 4.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 0.8 APG, but his recent role has clearly expanded with 10.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 30.6 MPG over the last 5 games. That said, the trend is down from the last 10 and last 20 windows, and his recent scoring has been volatile with a 0-point outing in his last game. The absences on Memphis help his minutes outlook, but his head-to-head history vs this opponent is still muted at 2.5 PPG and 11.2 MPG across 6 games, which keeps the scoring ceiling in check.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.0(↑ from 4.2)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 2.5)

APG

1.2(↑ from 0.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a defensive rating of 111.69 with pace at 100, plus three suppression of -0.513, while Rupert’s vs-opponent production has been only 2.5 PPG and 0.833 RPG across 6 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Rayan Rupert▼	Points	4.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	20%
Rayan Rupert▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Rayan Rupert▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Rayan Rupert▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Rayan Rupert▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	90%
Rayan Rupert▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	70%
Rayan Rupert▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	60%
Rayan Rupert▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	60%
Rayan Rupert▼	PRA	7.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Rayan Rupert▼	P+A	5.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Rayan Rupert▼	P+R	6.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	90%
Rayan Rupert▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A11UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%▼

PTS8OVER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

PRA12OVER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)8/1942%▼

AST1UNDER15%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/1937%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

STL1UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)6/1932%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PA3UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/1947%▼

FTM0.5UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)6/1932%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA0.5UNDER18%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/1937%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/1942%▼

3PM1UNDER5%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)7/1937%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

REB4UNDER0%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Rayan Rupert

Rebounds OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his rebound output has jumped to 5.2 RPG over the last 5 and 5.1 over the last 10 while minutes have risen to 30.6 and 29.2. Unlike scoring, rebounds are less exposed to his recent volatility, and a 2.5 line is well below his current role-based production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
De'Aaron Fox	2	3	6	40%	40%
Stephon Castle	1	1	0	0%	0%
Lindy Waters III	2	1	0	0%	0%
Dylan Harper	2	1	0	0%	0%
Julian Champagnie	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 4.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 4.2 PPG, and even though the last 5 jumped to 10.0, that comes with major volatility and a 0-point game most recently. With the last 20 at 7.2 PPG and a prior head-to-head average of 2.5 PPG, the under is safer.

reboundsOVER 2.564%MEDIUM

Rupert’s recent rebound production is 5.2 RPG over the last 5 and 5.1 over the last 10, well above his 2.5 season mean. The minutes spike to 29.2 in recent games supports clearing a low rebound line.

assistsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He is averaging 0.8 APG on the season and 1.1 APG over the last 10, which is enough to favor the over on a low line. The role increase has lifted his recent minutes and overall involvement.

threesOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

Rupert averages 0.64 made threes per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, so a half-line is reachable. His recent 3-point volume at 1.6 attempts per game over the last 5 also supports the over.

stealsOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, which is strong enough for a low steals line. Recent defensive activity has been a consistent part of his increased role.

blocksUNDER 0.571%HIGH

His season average is just 0.1 blocks per game, and even the recent 0.4 last-5 mark is still low. The overall profile does not support an over on blocks.

stocksOVER 1.567%MEDIUM

Rupert’s season stocks average is 0.83, but he’s at 1.6 over the last 10 and 1.4 over the last 5 while playing nearly 30 minutes. The combined steal/block activity gives him a reasonable path to a low stocks line.

turnoversUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 turnovers on the last 20 and 1.2 over the last 10, so the turnover baseline is not high. Even with expanded minutes, his ball-handling load is still limited.

praOVER 7.556%MEDIUM

His recent form points to more aggregate production, with 9.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 1.1 APG over the last 10. But combo props carry more variance, so confidence stays modest.

paOVER 5.555%MEDIUM

Rupert’s recent 9.7 PPG and 1.1 APG last 10 create enough scoring-plus-assist volume for a low combo line. The scoring volatility makes this only a medium-confidence lean.

prOVER 6.561%MEDIUM

Combining his 10.0 PPG last 5 with 5.2 RPG last 5 gives solid upside if minutes stay elevated. The main risk is regression, but the volume is strong enough for a modest over lean.

double_doubleUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He has not shown true double-double consistency, and his season averages are far below that threshold in points, rebounds, and assists. Even with the recent minutes bump, the profile is still not close to reliable double-double territory.

timelineUNDER 4.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Rupert’s expanded role keeps his defensive props and rebounds in play

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 4.5 PTS