Wembanyama’s stock-heavy profile stays elite, but points and boards look better for the under

His season mean is 24.27 points and his away mean is 22.63, both below 25.5. Even with last-10 scoring at 28.4, the over-bias warning and Memphis scoring suppression make the under more appealing.

He averages 11.11 rebounds for the season and 11.1 on the road, so 11.5 is a slight ask above baseline. Last-5 is 11.2, which supports a tight range rather than a clear over.

His season mean is 2.98 assists and last-5 is 3.2, both above 2.5. The standard deviation is 1.88, so it’s not a high-confidence play, but the lower line is playable.

He averages 1.91 threes for the season and 1.52 on the road, both under 2.5. Recent volume is higher at 3.1 last-10, but that’s a clear regression-risk spot versus the season baseline.

He averages 3.0 blocks season-long and 3.5 over the last 10, comfortably above 2.5. This is one of his steadiest categories, and the recent form stays elite.

He averages 1.0 steal per game and 1.1 over the last 10, well above 0.5. The floor is strong for at least one steal.

His season stocks mean is 4.02 and last-20 is 4.8, with recent form at 4.6. This is volatile, but the combination of blocks and steals keeps the over in play.

His season points-plus-rebounds baseline is about 35.38 using 24.3 PPG and 11.1 RPG, below 37.5. Because combo props are higher variance, the under is preferred unless minutes spike materially.

His season points plus assists is 27.3, and last-10 points are elevated at 28.4 with 3.2 assists. This is close to the line, so confidence stays modest.