AI Model:

Taylor Hendricks▼

MEM · C

PPG

7.4

RPG

3.6

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

12.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.4

7.4

12.8

RPG-0.4

3.6

3.2

APG+0.2

1.0

1.2

SPG+1.8

0.8

2.6

BPG+1.1

0.5

1.6

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 17 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 7 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 13 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CHA: 14 pts

ATL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs ATL: 9 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

83%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

OVER 1

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

OVER 0.8

62%

BLK

OVER 0.5

64%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

67%

PRA

OVER 13

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.6

10.2

RPG

5.6

4.1

APG

2.0

1.1

vs SAS (H2H)5 games

PPG

3.8

RPG

3.0

APG

0.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	3	9	62%	+16.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	7	100%	+21.5%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	3	6	60%	+14.8%	medium
Jaylen Brown	3	6	38%

Minutes boost is real, but the scoring line still looks too rich

Taylor Hendricks is playing significantly above his season baseline lately, with 12.8 PPG over the last 5 and 12.2 PPG over the last 10 compared to 7.4 PPG on the season. His minutes have climbed from 18.6 MPG season-long to 25.4 MPG in both the last 10 and last 5, but the recent form is still coming with high variance and a trend that is marked down. The matchup context is tricky: his head-to-head output vs this opponent is only 3.8 PPG in 5 games, and the opponent defense shows 111.69 defensive rating with -0.84 scoring suppression and -0.513 three suppression. With multiple teammate absences creating more opportunity, rebounds and stocks remain live, but the points market is still inflated relative to his season mean and the available book lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.8(↑ from 7.4)

RPG

3.2(→ from 3.6)

APG

1.2(→ from 1.0)

Stocks

4.2(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows 111.69 defensive rating, -0.84 scoring suppression, and -0.513 three suppression, which is not an ideal environment for efficient scoring. His vs-opponent history is also weak at 3.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 0.4 APG across 5 games, so there is no clear historical edge on the matchup side.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Taylor Hendricks▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	1/2	40%	2	✓
Taylor Hendricks▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	8	✗
Taylor Hendricks▼	Assists	1	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Taylor Hendricks▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Taylor Hendricks▼	Steals	0.8	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Taylor Hendricks▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	0	✗
Taylor Hendricks▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
Taylor Hendricks▼	PRA	13	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✗

ML Scout Analysis

R+A5.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A12OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%▼

P+R15UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Taylor Hendricks

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because the market line is well above his season average of 7.4 PPG and above his opponent history of 3.8 PPG in 5 games. The value props show a 14.1% edge on the DraftKings UNDER, and even with the recent minutes bump, the scoring line still looks too high.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Victor Wembanyama	2	3	6	75%	75%
Keldon Johnson	3	2	2	0%	0%
Stephon Castle	2	2	4	50%	50%
Bismack Biyombo	1	2	0	0%	0%
Carter Bryant	3	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.583%HIGH

The line is 10.5 at DraftKings, but his season mean is only 7.4 PPG and his vs-opponent mark is 3.8 PPG in 5 games. Even with the recent minutes bump, the value prop data shows a strong UNDER lean with a 14.1% edge.

reboundsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 RPG on the season and 4.1 RPG over the last 10, which is below the 4.5 line. The recent increase in minutes helps, but the edge data still points to UNDER and the variance is moderate.

assistsOVER 155%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.0 APG and recent form is 1.4 APG over the last 10 with 1.2 APG over the last 5. This is a low-volume stat, so the lean is slight and confidence stays modest.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.06 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, but the line is still 1.5 and the opponent's three suppression is -0.513. The recent uptick is noted, yet the book data still supports an UNDER lean.

stealsOVER 0.862%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 SPG on the season and 1.8 SPG over the last 10, with 2.6 SPG over the last 5. The recent defensive activity is strong enough to justify an OVER lean at a projected 0.8 line.

blocksOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 BPG on the season and has jumped to 1.6 BPG over the last 10 and last 5. The recent shot-blocking spike is meaningful even if some regression is expected.

stocksOVER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.34, but that has surged to 3.4 over the last 10 and 4.2 over the last 5. With steals and blocks both elevated, the combined production supports an OVER on a 1.5 line.

praOVER 1353%MEDIUM

His recent scoring and minutes are up enough to put PRA in play, but combo props are inherently volatile and his season baseline is still modest. This is only a small lean because the last 10 production is carrying the projection.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS