Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

DEN

Denver Nuggets

44-28 | L10: 6-4

PHX

Phoenix Suns

40-32 | L10: 5-5

2026-03-24

Version History

2 versions

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

DEN93%

7%PHX

DEN94-80PHX

Key Factors

*Suns without Dillon Brooks (20.9 PPG) - out (Hand)
*Suns without Grayson Allen (17.2 PPG) - questionable (Knee)
*Nuggets without Peyton Watson (14.5 PPG) - out (Hamstring)
*Suns without Mark Williams (11.6 PPG) - out (Foot)
*Nuggets has positional advantages with deeper rotation (224.9 vs 162.4 depth)

Key Matchup

Nuggets has matchup advantages

DEN Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

DEN Players

Jamal Murray

Grayson Allen3g · 7m+0.0%25% eFGmedium

Collin Gillespie3g · 7m+0.0%30% eFGmedium

Jordan Goodwin3g · 5m+0.0%29% eFGmedium

Cameron Johnson

Royce O'Neale3g · 5m+0.0%75% eFGmedium

Devin Booker3g · 5m+0.0%83% eFGmedium

Denver enters at 44-28 with a 6-4 mark over the last 10 and a 2-game streak, while Phoenix is 40-32 and 5-5 in its last 10, so both teams have plenty to play for with a short 2-day rest window. The matchup leans toward high-usage stars because Denver’s defense data is not provided here, while Phoenix’s offensive core is missing Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams, which should keep roles elevated for the starters listed below.

Team Comparison

DENPHX

Key Players

Jokić is still carrying huge minutes at 35.8 over his last 5 and has a strong season baseline of 28.0 PPG, 12.6 RPG, and 10.6 APG. His last-5 points are down to 21.0, but the rebounds and assists remain elite, and the prop market should be cautious on points overs while still respecting his playmaking floor.

ProjectedPTS: 15.9-22.5-29.1REB: 9.3-12.3-15.3AST: 8.8-11.2-13.6

Murray’s season line is 25.1 PPG and 7.2 APG, but his last 5 have dipped to 17.8 PPG even with 34.8 MPG. That gap creates a classic regression/under angle on points, especially with a recent run of inconsistent scoring outcomes and elevated turnover volatility.

ProjectedPTS: 13.2-19.8-26.4REB: 1.8-4.8-7.8AST: 4.7-7.1-9.5

Braun’s last 5 are much hotter than his 11.7 season PPG, but the recent 17.2 PPG comes with a clear over-performance relative to his baseline. Because hot streaks can regress and his season scoring is materially lower, his points props need a skeptical eye despite heavy minutes.

ProjectedPTS: 5.8-12.4-19REB: 1.8-4.8-7.8AST: 0.5-2.9-5.3

Gordon’s season scoring sits at 16.7 PPG with 5.9 RPG, but his last 5 are down to 13.4 PPG and 4.4 RPG. The current market line is above his recent production, making him more interesting on the under side than as a points-over target.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Evolution	Edge	Actual	Result
Aaron Gordon▼ DEN	Points	9.5stake	UNDER	71%HIGH	30%	—	+12.3%	16	✗
Jamal Murray▼ DEN	Points	25.5stake	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	60%	—	+7.7%	21	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼ PHX	Rebounds	4.5stake	OVER	60%MEDIUM	70%	—	+7.2%	6	✓
Collin Gillespie▼ PHX	Assists	4.5stake	OVER	58%MEDIUM	60%	—	+4.1%	1	✗
Devin Booker▼ PHX	Points	25.5stake	OVER	54%LOW	70%		+2.8%	22	✗

Model Comparison

5 models · 14 props compared

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Props Shown

14 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Aaron Gordon

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

His season mean is 16.66 points and his recent mean is 13.2, both comfortably above the line, which makes the under the value side on a number that is far below his usual production but still supported by his recent downturn.

Jamal Murray

Points UNDER 25.5MEDIUM

Murray’s recent mean of 21.9 points is well below his 25.5 line, and the over would need a clear bounce-back to justify the price. With his season mean at 25.12, the market is close to full value, so the under is the cleaner side.

Oso Ighodaro

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

Ighodaro has averaged 4.92 rebounds for the season and 5.8 over his last 5, while his minutes have climbed to 28.4 recently. The role increase plus Mark Williams being out makes this a stronger rebound spot than his season average alone would imply.

Parlay of the Game

Aaron Gordon — Points UNDER 9.5Leg 1

Jamal Murray — Points UNDER 25.5Leg 2

Oso Ighodaro — Rebounds OVER 4.5Leg 3

The two Denver scoring unders pair with a Phoenix frontcourt rebound over, creating a mix of conservative under exposure on players below their recent baseline and one role-driven over tied to expanded minutes. These legs are not directly dependent on each other, but they fit the same game script where role compression and recent regression matter most.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams are Out for Phoenix, which is the biggest actionable absence context in the player pool. Peyton Watson is Out for Denver, but his absence does not materially change the listed Denver prop targets in the provided data.

Player Deep Dives

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.