AI Model:

Cameron Johnson▼

DEN · SF

PPG

11.8

RPG

3.7

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

16.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.4

11.8

16.2

RPG+0.1

3.7

3.8

APG+0.1

2.3

2.4

SPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

MIN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 15 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 18 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 20 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 6 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 19 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5

62%

REB

OVER 3.5

54%

AST

UNDER 2.5

57%

3PM

OVER 2

63%

STL

OVER 0.5

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 2

67%

PRA

UNDER 17.5

55%

P+A

UNDER 14

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.6

13.0

RPG

3.3

4.3

APG

2.7

2.2

vs PHX (H2H)5 games

PPG

14.8

RPG

4.6

APG

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	27	53%	-8.6%	medium
Russell Westbrook	4	13	63%	+2.5%	medium
Naji Marshall	3	12	50%	-4.6%	medium
Julian Champagnie	3	10	83%

Johnson’s scoring ceiling is intact, but matchup and regression point to a more cautious outlook

Cameron Johnson has been more productive lately, with 16.2 PPG over his last 5 compared to 11.8 PPG for the season, but his overall trend is still marked down and his last 10 and last 20 scoring averages sit closer to his season level. He has been steady in minutes at 30.4 MPG on the season, though the recent 28.2 MPG average and the fact that his last-5 scoring is well above baseline suggest some regression risk. The matchup is not an easy one for volume scoring, as Phoenix carries a 110.99 defensive rating and the opponent data points to some scoring and three-point suppression. Peyton Watson being out should help preserve Johnson’s role, but the overall profile still favors a measured projection rather than chasing the hot streak.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.2(↑ from 11.8)

RPG

3.8(→ from 3.7)

APG

2.4(→ from 2.3)

3PM

3.4(↑ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

Phoenix holds a 110.99 defensive rating with a 100 pace and opponent suppression notes for scoring and threes, so there is no specific defender matchup data but the environment is not ideal for an easy scoring ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cameron Johnson▼	Points	11.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	14	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	3PM	2	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	100%	0	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	19	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	P+A	14	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	16	✗

ML Scout Analysis

FTM2UNDER46%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

PTS13OVER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM2UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA4UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA19OVER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB4OVER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

AST3OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)4/2020%▼

Featured Pick

Cameron Johnson

Turnovers UNDER 2.0HIGH

This is the cleanest angle from the data because Johnson’s turnover rates are consistently low at 0.7 per game over the last 10 and last 20, and 0.6 at home. Even if his minutes and shot volume stay healthy, his ball security profile makes 2.0 turnovers an unfavorable line to attack from the over side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Royce O'Neale	3	5	8	50%	75%
Devin Booker	3	5	22	78%	83%
Dillon Brooks	2	4	3	25%	38%
Grayson Allen	3	4	11	57%	79%
Jalen Green	1	4	7	43%	50%

pointsOVER 11.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.85 PPG and he is at 16.2 PPG over the last 5, but that run is well above his baseline and likely to cool. Peyton Watson is out, which supports his role, yet the opponent defense and recent regression risk keep confidence moderate.

reboundsOVER 3.554%MEDIUM

He averages 3.74 RPG on the season and 3.6 RPG over the last 5, so this is close to a fair line. With only modest recent volatility and no major spike in rebounding role, the edge is small.

assistsUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.35 APG and his last 20 is 2.5 APG, but the season baseline is still below this number. The assist profile is steady rather than explosive, making the under slightly preferable.

threesOVER 263%MEDIUM

He averages 1.96 made threes per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 5, with 2.2 at home and 2.13 in b2b contexts. The recent shot volume is strong enough to support a slight over lean, though the opponent’s three suppression keeps it from being a high-confidence play.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He is at 0.7 SPG for the season and 1.2 over the last 5, so he clears this low bar more often than not. The recent uptick in stocks also supports a mild over lean.

blocksUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.3 BPG on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. This line is above his normal production, so the under is the cleaner side.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.04 and recent average is 1.2, both below 1.5. Even with some defensive activity, the combined number remains too high relative to his normal output.

turnoversUNDER 267%MEDIUM

He has a low turnover profile at 0.7 TO per game over the last 10 and 0.7 over the last 20, with 0.6 at home. That makes the under strong unless usage spikes sharply.

praUNDER 17.555%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 17.85, but combo props carry extra variance and his scoring would need to stay elevated to clear this cleanly. Given the regression risk off the last-5 scoring surge, the under is slightly safer.

paUNDER 1464%MEDIUM

Points plus assists sit at 14.15 on the season, so this line is a touch aggressive. With his assist numbers stable and scoring likely to normalize, the under has modest value.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS