Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Moody | 3 | 14 | 50% | -8.0% | medium |
| Christian Braun | 2 | 12 | 81% | +29.5% | low |
| Keegan Murray | 2 | 11 | 54% | +4.5% | low |
| Jaden McDaniels | 2 | 11 | 67% |
Devin Booker is coming in with strong recent scoring volume, averaging 29.8 PPG over his last 10 and 27.0 over his last 5 versus a 25.5 season mark. That said, his vs. opponent history is slightly softer at 23.46 PPG across 13 games, and his season-long efficiency profile comes with a sizeable scoring standard deviation of 7.47. With Dillon Brooks out, Booker should still carry plenty of offensive responsibility, but the Nuggets matchup and his recent trend marked down make the scoring line less automatic than his recent form suggests.
Denver’s defense has a 116.68 defensive rating and a scoring suppression figure of 0.288, while the listed defender data includes no specific defender matchup data beyond limited samples. Booker’s own history against this opponent is 23.46 PPG in 13 games, which is below his season scoring level.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Devin Booker▼ | Points | 25.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 22 | ✓ |
Devin Booker▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 3 | ✗ |
Devin Booker▼ | Assists | 5.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 8 | ✓ |
Devin Booker▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Devin Booker▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
Devin Booker▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Devin Booker▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Devin Booker▼ | Turnovers | 2.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Devin Booker▼ | PRA | 37 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 33 | ✓ |
Devin Booker▼ | P+A | 31.5 | UNDER | 53%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 30 | ✓ |
Devin Booker▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | — | — | — |
This is the cleanest data-driven angle on the board. Booker averages only 0.3 blocks per game this season and 0.2 over his last 20, so clearing 0.5 requires an outlier night rather than a normal outcome.
| low |
| Ousmane Dieng | 2 | 10 | 71% | +11.6% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Braun | 2 | 12 | 13 | 75% | 81% |
| Cameron Johnson | 3 | 7 | 8 | 75% | 100% |
| Peyton Watson | 2 | 6 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 3 | 5 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Bruce Brown | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
His season mean is 25.5, but the vs. opponent sample is only 23.46 PPG in 13 games, which is lower than his recent surge. With scoring variance high (7.47 std), the safer lean is slightly under rather than chasing the last-10 spike.
Booker averages 3.9 RPG on the season and 4.0 over his last 20, with an away mark of 4.17 RPG. The rebound profile is modest, but the projection sits just above the typical 3.5 threshold.
He averages 5.9 APG for the season and 6.3 at home, which supports a playable over on a 5.5 line. Recent form is a touch lower at 5.3, so confidence stays moderate.
Booker’s season mean is 1.86 made threes and he’s at 2.4 over the last 20, with 2.4 at home as well. The volume is solid enough to support an over at a modest line.
He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 1.1 at home, which clears the meaningful-volume threshold. The recent 5-game steal rate is only 0.4, so this remains a lower-confidence over.
Booker’s season average is just 0.3 blocks per game, well below a 0.5 line. Even with occasional spikes, the baseline strongly favors the under.
His season stocks average is 1.14 and recent is 1.0, with a lower away mark of 0.7. That profile is short of 1.5 and makes the under the cleaner side.
Booker has 3.2 turnovers over his last 10 and 3.3 over his last 20, which sits above a typical 2.5 line. His usage is high enough that turnover volume remains live.
His season PRA is 35.3 based on 25.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists, while recent scoring is elevated but not enough to make a 37.0 line comfortable. Combo props carry added variance, so the under is preferable here.
Booker’s season P+A is 31.4, and his recent scoring/assist blend is 32.4 over the last 5. That is close to the line, but with combo variance and a lower historical matchup scoring average, the under is the conservative lean.
Booker has strong scoring and assists, but his rebounds are only 3.9 per game, which makes a double-double unlikely. He is not regularly near double digits in two categories.