AI Model:

Aaron Gordon—

DEN · PF

PPG

16.7

RPG

5.9

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.3

16.7

13.4

RPG-1.5

5.9

4.4

APG0.0

2.4

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG+0.5

0.3

0.8

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

WAS

2026-01-17

2026-01-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

LAL

2026-01-20

2026-01-20 vs LAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-01-23

2026-01-23 vs MIL: 13 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 3 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 23 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 27 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 12 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5

68%

REB

UNDER 6

61%

AST

OVER 2.5

57%

3PM

OVER 1.5

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

OVER 1

58%

PRA

UNDER 25.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 19

62%

UNDER 0.5

74%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.0

17.5

RPG

5.9

6.3

APG

3.8

1.7

vs PHX (H2H)14 games

PPG

16.1

RPG

5.8

APG

2.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	12	53%	-0.3%	low
Alex Sarr	2	11	42%	-8.6%	low
Zion Williamson	2	11	33%	-17.0%	low
Julius Randle	2	10	43%

Gordon’s scoring looks muted, but the absence-driven role keeps his all-around floor intact

Aaron Gordon enters this matchup with a season line of 16.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 2.4 APG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 13.4 PPG over the last 5 and 13.2 over the last 10. He still has useful peripheral production, and Peyton Watson being out should help preserve minutes/usage in Denver’s rotation. Phoenix has a 110.99 defensive rating, and Gordon’s head-to-head output against this opponent is essentially in line with his season baseline at 16.07 PPG across 14 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↓ from 16.7)

RPG

4.4(↓ from 5.9)

APG

2.4(→ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond Royce O'Neale and Oso Ighodaro is provided, so the safer read is to lean on team defense and context. Phoenix’s 110.99 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression signal a tougher scoring environment than Gordon’s season average suggests.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Aaron Gordon▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	16	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	Rebounds	6	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	6	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	20%	2	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	25	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	P+A	19	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	19	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA24.5UNDER16%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

FTA4.5UNDER7%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB6UNDER7%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)6/2030%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

3PA4UNDER29%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)6/2030%▼

FTM3UNDER31%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A18OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST3OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

3PM1OVER0%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Gordon

Points UNDER 16.5MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 16.7, but the recent sample is clearly softer at 13.4 over the last 5 and 13.2 over the last 10. With Denver on the road and no strong matchup boost in the data, the UNDER is the cleaner side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Royce O'Neale	2	7	9	50%	75%
Ryan Dunn	1	3	0	0%	0%
Devin Booker	2	2	0	0%	0%
Dillon Brooks	1	2	0	0%	0%
Grayson Allen	2	1	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 16.568%MEDIUM

His recent mean is 13.2 points and his last 5 is 13.4, both below the season 16.7. Phoenix’s scoring environment is not especially soft here, so the lower recent scoring form matters more than the season average.

reboundsUNDER 661%MEDIUM

He averages 5.9 rebounds on the season and 5.5 over the last 5, with no strong upward trend. The matchup profile does not provide enough extra rebound upside to justify an OVER at a 6.0 line.

assistsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.4 APG, but the recent mean is 3.7 and last 10 is 3.7, which supports a small lean up despite the variance. Peyton Watson being out can help keep his involvement steady.

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.83 made threes on the season and 1.6 recently, with 1.83 still comfortably above a 1.5 line. His last 5 also shows 2.0 fg3m per game, keeping this playable.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

Season stocks are only 0.86 and last 5 is 1.0, so a 1.5 line is well above his usual range. The standard volatility is high enough to keep confidence moderate, but the baseline points to UNDER.

turnoversOVER 158%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 turnovers over his last 20 and 0.9 over his last 10, with a season trend that still sits close to 1.0. If his usage stays active with added rotation minutes, a 1.0 line is reachable.

praUNDER 25.560%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 25.0 using 16.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, while the recent scoring dip pulls him below that baseline. Combo props carry more variance, so the lean stays cautious.

paUNDER 1962%MEDIUM

Points plus assists equal 19.1 on the season, but his recent scoring drop to 13.4 makes clearing 19.0 less secure. His assist bump helps, but not enough to offset the lower points baseline.

double_doubleUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He is not consistently near double-double territory based on 16.7 PPG and 5.9 RPG, and his recent rebound output is down to 4.4. The path to 10+ in two categories is too narrow at this role.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS