AI Model:

Oso Ighodaro—

PHX · C

PPG

6.3

RPG

4.9

APG

2.2

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.3

6.3

10.6

RPG+1.7

4.9

6.6

APG+2.4

2.2

4.6

SPG+0.6

1.0

1.6

BPG0.0

0.6

OVER 5.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

5.5

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 2 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 8 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 6 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 4 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIL: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs TOR: 6 pts

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 5.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

60%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

56%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

59%

OVER 1

55%

P+R

OVER 10.5STAKE

52%

P+A

OVER 7.5STAKE

51%

R+A

OVER 6.5STAKE

53%

UNDER 0.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.6

9.8

RPG

5.8

6.5

APG

2.8

4.1

vs DEN (H2H)5 games

PPG

3.8

RPG

3.4

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	3	15	75%	+4.6%	medium
Jaxson Hayes	4	13	0%	-65.4%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	10	80%	+14.6%	medium
Deandre Ayton	4	10	100%

Expanded role keeps Oso Ighodaro in play, but scoring is still capped

Oso Ighodaro is in a clear minutes-up spot with Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams both out, and his recent playing time has jumped to 28.4 MPG over the last 10 and 31.8 MPG over the last 5. That surge has translated to 8.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 3.5 APG over the last 10, well above his season marks of 6.3/4.9/2.2. The matchup is less appealing for scoring because Denver has a 116.68 defensive rating and 0.288 scoring suppression, and his head-to-head history versus this opponent is only 3.8 PPG in 16.8 MPG across 5 games. The best angle is to lean on the elevated role for peripherals, while staying cautious on points because his recent surge is still below the level needed to trust an over aggressively.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↑ from 6.3)

RPG

6.6(↑ from 4.9)

APG

4.6(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Nikola Jokić is listed among the key defenders, and no specific defender matchup data beyond that is available. Denver’s defense has a 116.68 rating with 0.288 scoring suppression, which makes this a tougher environment for scoring upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Oso Ighodaro▼	Points	5.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	15	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	P+R	10.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	21	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	P+A	7.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	16	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	R+A	6.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	7	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+A12.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A10UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Oso Ighodaro

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of season and recent form: 4.9 RPG on the season, 5.8 RPG over the last 10, and 6.6 RPG over the last 5. The minutes increase to 28.4 MPG plus the absence of Mark Williams strengthens the case more than the points market.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nikola Jokić	3	15	20	70%	75%
Spencer Jones	2	5	2	50%	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas	2	4	2	50%	50%
Jamal Murray	3	3	17	55%	64%
Peyton Watson	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 5.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.3 PPG, which is above this line, and his last 10 are at 8.7 PPG with minutes up to 28.4. The risk is that his vs-opponent scoring is only 3.8 PPG across 5 games and Denver’s scoring suppression makes this less comfortable.

reboundsOVER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.9 RPG on the season and 5.8 RPG over the last 10, with 6.6 RPG over the last 5. The minutes bump from 21.8 season MPG to 28.4 recent MPG supports this more than the points market.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.2 APG and he has averaged 3.5 APG over the last 10 and 4.6 APG over the last 5. With Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams out, the increased usage/minutes make 1.5 look light.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 SPG on the season and 0.9 SPG over the last 10, so the 0.5 line is below his typical production. Recent form is even better at 1.6 SPG over the last 5.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He is at 0.6 BPG for the season and 0.8 BPG over the last 10. This is playable, though variance is real because recent game logs include both block-heavy and blockless outings.

stocksOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.6 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, with 2.2 over the last 5. Since the line is derived and his combined defensive production is consistently above it, this is a reasonable angle.

turnoversOVER 155%MEDIUM

He is at 1.0 TO per game over the last 10 and 1.1 over the last 20, while his role has expanded to 28.4 MPG recently. The added ball-handling indicated by 3.5 APG recent mean gives this some over appeal.

prOVER 10.552%MEDIUM

His season mean for points plus rebounds is 11.2, and recent production has moved higher with more minutes. Combo props carry more variance, so confidence stays modest despite the role bump.

paOVER 7.551%MEDIUM

He averages 8.5 points plus assists on the season and 12.2 over the last 10. The recent assist spike is the main driver, but combo volatility keeps this from being stronger.

raOVER 6.553%MEDIUM

He averages 7.1 rebounds plus assists on the season and 9.3 over the last 10. The line is below his recent role-based production, but this is still a high-variance combo market.

double_doubleUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He has solid rebound and assist involvement, but his season scoring and rebounding levels do not consistently reach double-double territory. Even with the recent minutes spike, the historical profile still points under.

timelineOVER 5.5 PTS