AI Model:

Christian Braun▼

DEN · SG

PPG

11.7

RPG

4.9

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

17.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.5

11.7

17.2

RPG-0.3

4.9

4.6

APG+0.1

2.9

3.0

SPG+0.5

0.7

1.2

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 11.7 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.7

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 15 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 12 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 22 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 26 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 11 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 15 pts

Over 11.7

Under 11.7

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.7

67%

REB

OVER 4.9

58%

AST

OVER 2.9

56%

3PM

OVER 0.9

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1

60%

UNDER 1.1

64%

PRA

UNDER 19.5

54%

P+A

UNDER 14.6

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.4

13.3

RPG

5.3

5.9

APG

3.0

3.2

vs PHX (H2H)12 games

PPG

9.8

RPG

4.0

APG

2.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Deni Avdija	4	20	50%	-1.5%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	19	57%	+1.8%	low
Luka Dončić	2	18	57%	-1.5%	low
Brandin Podziemski	4	15	50%

Braun’s minutes are secure, but his scoring looks due for a step back

Christian Braun is playing a steady starter workload at 31.9 MPG on the season and 33.6 MPG over the last 10, but his production trend has cooled relative to his recent hot stretch. He’s averaging 11.7 PPG for the season, while his last 5 is inflated to 17.2 PPG; that gap suggests regression is possible, especially with his season-long scoring profile still much lower than the recent spike. The matchup data also leans conservative for scoring, as he averages 9.83 PPG in 12 games versus Phoenix and the Suns allow a slightly suppressive environment with a 110.99 defensive rating and -0.993 scoring suppression. Peyton Watson’s absence helps preserve Braun’s role, but it doesn’t fully erase the regression risk on his points and combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.2(↑ from 11.7)

RPG

4.6(→ from 4.9)

APG

3.0(→ from 2.9)

3PM

1.4(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Phoenix has a 110.99 defensive rating and -0.993 scoring suppression, while Braun’s head-to-head line is modest at 9.83 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.5 APG over 12 games. key_defenders data does not provide a clean defender matchup beyond the listed names, so there is no specific defender matchup data to rely on.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Christian Braun▼	Points	11.7	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	13	✗
Christian Braun▼	Rebounds	4.9	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Christian Braun▼	Assists	2.9	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✗
Christian Braun▼	3PM	0.9	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Christian Braun▼	STL+BLK	1	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Christian Braun▼	Turnovers	1.1	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	100%	0	✓
Christian Braun▼	PRA	19.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	17	✓
Christian Braun▼	P+A	14.6	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

R+A8UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Christian Braun

Points UNDER 11.7HIGH

The season baseline is exactly 11.7 PPG, but the last-5 jump to 17.2 looks overstated relative to his longer sample and his 12-game history versus Phoenix is only 9.83 PPG. With scoring suppression in the matchup and regression risk from the recent surge, the under is the strongest angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Booker	2	14	13	83%	92%
Royce O'Neale	2	2	3	100%	150%
Grayson Allen	2	2	0	0%	0%
Collin Gillespie	2	2	0	0%	0%
Dillon Brooks	1	1	11	80%	110%

pointsUNDER 11.767%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.7 PPG, but his last-5 jump to 17.2 is well above that baseline and looks primed to cool off. He also averages just 9.83 PPG in 12 games versus Phoenix, which supports a lower scoring projection.

reboundsOVER 4.958%MEDIUM

Braun’s season average is 4.9 RPG and his last-10 sits at 5.4 RPG, with 33.6 MPG recently keeping his rebound floor intact. The profile is steadier than points, and his recent logs include multiple 5+ rebound games.

assistsOVER 2.956%MEDIUM

He’s at 2.9 APG for the season and 3.1 APG over the last 10, with minutes holding in the 32-34 range. Peyton Watson being out helps preserve playmaking involvement, though the edge is modest.

threesOVER 0.955%MEDIUM

Braun is averaging 0.94 made threes per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so the recent volume trend is positive. His season volatility is real, but the recent increase in fg3m makes this a viable lean.

stocksUNDER 160%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.0 stocks, but his home split drops to 0.2 and the season standard deviation is 1.11, which is high relative to the mean. That volatility makes an over less attractive than it first appears.

turnoversUNDER 1.164%MEDIUM

Braun has only 0.8 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 0.8 over the last 10, below a projected line near 1.1. His recent ball security has been solid and supports the under.

praUNDER 19.554%MEDIUM

His season PRA profile is 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, but combo props carry added variance and the scoring mean remains the biggest drag. The recent scoring spike is enough to keep this from being a high-confidence under.

paUNDER 14.657%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists come out to 14.6 on the exact season means, while his last-5 points surge is not as strong a fit for a stable combo play. With his scoring likely normalizing, the under is slightly preferable.

timelineUNDER 11.7 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Braun’s minutes are secure, but his scoring looks due for a step back

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 11.7 PTS