AI Model:

Collin Gillespie▲

PHX · PG

PPG

13.3

RPG

4.2

APG

4.8

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.3

13.3

14.6

RPG-0.8

4.2

3.4

APG-0.2

4.8

4.6

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 0 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 3 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIL: 18 pts

TOR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs TOR: 16 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

61%

AST

OVER 4.5STAKE

59%

3PM

OVER 3

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

84%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 2

68%

P+A

OVER 19.5STAKE

57%

P+R

UNDER 18.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.8

10.0

RPG

4.3

4.4

APG

4.3

5.9

vs DEN (H2H)4 games

PPG

6.5

RPG

0.8

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Russell Westbrook	4	14	56%	+8.0%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	12	30%	-22.0%	medium
Cason Wallace	4	10	100%	+58.0%	medium
Julian Champagnie	4	10	30%

Gillespie’s expanded role keeps his floor intact, but the matchup and history lean cautious

Collin Gillespie is in a steady run of production, averaging 13.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 4.8 APG on the season with 28.9 MPG, and his last 10 games show 12.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 4.9 APG. The biggest swing factor is the teammate absences: Dillon Brooks (20.9 PPG, 30.6 MPG) and Mark Williams (11.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) are both out, which supports his usage and minutes. Still, his season shooting volume and prior head-to-head output versus Denver are modest, and his vs_opponent line is just 6.5 PPG and 1.0 APG across 4 games. With home splits slightly below his season scoring baseline and Denver’s team context showing no clear defender edge, the safer lean is on efficiency/volume limits rather than a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(↑ from 13.3)

RPG

3.4(↓ from 4.2)

APG

4.6(→ from 4.8)

STL

1.2(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Denver’s opponent defense numbers show a 116.68 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.288 scoring suppression, while the key defender list does not provide enough context to isolate a true on-ball stopper impact.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Collin Gillespie▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	11	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	3PM	3	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	P+A	19.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	12	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	14	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5OVER19%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+13.1% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.330▼

AST3.5UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

3PA8UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PRA17.5UNDER9%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

3PM2.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER42%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Collin Gillespie

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because his season average is only 0.2 blocks and his recent output is 0.0 over the last 5 and 0.1 over the last 10. The line asks for a stat he rarely reaches, making the under the most stable play among the available props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	3	9	10	44%	56%
Jamal Murray	3	6	6	33%	33%
Cameron Johnson	3	3	5	50%	63%
Bruce Brown	3	3	6	75%	75%
Christian Braun	2	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 14.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.3 PPG and his home mean is 13.8 PPG, both below 14.5. The recent 14.6 PPG is a bit hotter, but the last 10 is 12.5 PPG and his vs_opponent scoring is only 6.5 PPG in 4 games.

reboundsUNDER 4.561%MEDIUM

He averages 4.2 RPG on the season and 4.3 RPG at home, so 4.5 is slightly above his core range. The last 5 is 3.4 RPG, which is below the line despite the expanded role.

assistsOVER 4.559%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.8 APG and his last 10 is 4.9 APG, with the away split at 5.9 APG. The added usage from teammate absences supports him staying around or above this number.

threesOVER 358%MEDIUM

He averages 3.07 made threes per game on the season and 3.1 over the last 5, so a 3.0 projected line sits slightly below his mean. His recent game log also shows multiple 4+ three makes in the last 10.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.3 steals, while the home split drops to 0.7 steals and the last 10 is 1.1. The 1.5 line is above his typical production and his stock rate is more modest in this matchup context.

blocksUNDER 0.584%HIGH

He averages just 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.1 in recent windows. A 0.5 line requires a block, which is above his normal output.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.48 and recent is 1.2, which keeps him right around the threshold but not comfortably above it. Given the variance, the under is slightly safer than paying for the over.

turnoversUNDER 268%MEDIUM

He has 1.5 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.2 over the last 10, both below 2.0. Even with a bigger role, his recent ball security has been manageable.

paOVER 19.557%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists is 18.1, but the last 10 rises to 17.4 and the teammate absences support more ball-handling and shot attempts. The line is close, so confidence stays modest.

prUNDER 18.562%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds is 17.5, and his home split is only 16.31 combined. He would need a clean scoring spike to clear 18.5 consistently.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS