AI Model:

Royce O'Neale▼

PHX · PF

PPG

9.9

RPG

4.8

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

9.9

11.4

RPG-1.2

4.8

3.6

APG0.0

2.8

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

LAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAL: 13 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 3 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 11 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 3 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 21 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 9 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

60%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

56%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

63%

3PM

OVER 2.5

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 1

52%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

61%

P+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

64%

R+A

UNDER 8.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.4

10.2

RPG

5.1

4.5

APG

2.2

2.5

vs DEN (H2H)19 games

PPG

8.7

RPG

4.4

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
John Collins	4	15	42%	-0.3%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	15	73%	+30.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	13	22%	-19.8%	medium
LeBron James	4	12	32%

Royce O'Neale’s role is stable, but the scoring ceiling looks capped

Royce O'Neale is averaging 9.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG on 29.1 MPG this season, with his last 20 games sitting very close to that baseline at 9.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.4 APG. His last 5 games have been slightly better in scoring at 11.4 PPG, but the stronger season-long and last-10 sample still point to a modest, low-variance stat profile rather than a breakout. Phoenix is at home, where he has posted 8.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 2.2 APG, and his opponent history against Denver is also muted at 8.684 PPG and 4.421 RPG across 19 games. With Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams out, his minutes floor should remain intact, but the data still supports a conservative projection rather than chasing an over.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(↑ from 9.9)

RPG

3.6(↓ from 4.8)

APG

2.8(→ from 2.8)

STL+BLK

1.8(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent defense data shows Denver with a 116.68 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.288 scoring suppression, which points to a generally controlled environment. There is no specific defender matchup data to target beyond the listed key defenders, so the matchup case leans more on the overall team context than on an individual shadow assignment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Royce O'Neale▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	17	✗
Royce O'Neale▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Royce O'Neale▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✓
Royce O'Neale▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Royce O'Neale▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Royce O'Neale▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Royce O'Neale▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✓
Royce O'Neale▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Royce O'Neale▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✗
Royce O'Neale▼	P+A	13.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	20	✗
Royce O'Neale▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PM1.5UNDER19%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.375; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PTS6.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB3.5OVER35%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+15.0% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.369▼

PRA14.5UNDER22%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R13UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

P+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

3PA6UNDER30%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Royce O'Neale

Assists UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his season and recent production: 2.78 APG on the year, 2.6 over the last 5, and 2.4 over the last 20. Even with stable minutes and some teammate absences, the assist line sits above his typical output.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Aaron Gordon	2	9	14	63%	75%
Nikola Jokić	3	7	10	57%	57%
Spencer Jones	2	4	6	67%	100%
Peyton Watson	2	3	5	100%	100%
Jamal Murray	3	3	6	40%	60%

pointsUNDER 9.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.93 and his last-20 is 9.2, so the 9.5 line is right around his true scoring range. The last-5 spike to 11.4 is not strong enough to override the broader sample.

reboundsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

He averages 4.84 rebounds on the season and 4.8 over the last 20, which supports a slight edge over 4.5. His home mean is 5.1 rebounds, adding a small bump.

assistsUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

Royce is at 2.78 APG for the season and 2.4 over the last 20, both below 3.5. Even his away mean of 3.21 does not quite justify an over on this number.

threesOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.75 made threes per game this season and 2.9 over the last 20, so 2.5 is a workable over target. The recent shot volume remains healthy at 2.8 made threes per game over the last 20.

stealsUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season steal rate is 1.1, and while the last 5 are 1.2, that still falls short of 1.5. The prop is a higher-variance ask than the baseline production supports.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season but 0.6 in the last 10 and last 5, which keeps this playable at 0.5. This is still a volatile category, so confidence stays modest.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.52, and the last 10 and last 20 both sit at 1.7 and 1.6, respectively. That gives a slight lean over 1.5 despite the volatility.

turnoversOVER 152%MEDIUM

He has 1.1 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.0 over the last 5, so a 1.0 line is reachable. The profile is low-usage enough that this stays close to a coin flip.

prUNDER 14.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 14.77, but the recent scoring dip and 4.5 rebound baseline make this a fragile over. Given combo variance, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 13.564%MEDIUM

He averages 12.68 points plus assists on the season and 11.6 over the last 20, both below 13.5. This is the cleaner combo under of the available markets.

raUNDER 8.562%MEDIUM

Royce averages 7.58 rebounds plus assists on the season and 6.9 over the last 20, which is well below 8.5. The home split does not meaningfully lift him into over territory.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS