AI Model:

Jalen Green▲

PHX · SF

PPG

17.6

RPG

3.5

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.6

17.6

18.2

RPG+0.9

3.5

4.4

APG+1.0

2.8

3.8

SPG-0.5

1.1

0.6

BPG+0.3

0.1

0.4

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 25 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 36 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 34 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 21 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 9 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 17 pts

MIL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIL: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs TOR: 20 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 2.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

56%

3PM

OVER 2.5

54%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

OVER 2.5

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

P+R

OVER 15.5STAKE

55%

P+A

OVER 15.5STAKE

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.6

23.5

RPG

3.6

4.4

APG

2.8

3.2

vs DEN (H2H)14 games

PPG

20.6

RPG

3.4

APG

4.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Immanuel Quickley	2	8	29%	-13.9%	low
Brandon Miller	2	7	20%	-22.5%	low
Ousmane Dieng	2	6	33%	-9.2%	low
Sam Hauser	2	6	0%

Usage bump, but Denver matchup keeps the ceiling in check

Jalen Green enters this game with a clear minutes and usage boost context, with Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams both out and Green’s recent workload up to 32.3 MPG over the last 10. His scoring form has improved lately, but the season baseline is still 17.6 PPG, and his home split is only 15.6 PPG across 12 games. Denver’s defense data points to a tougher scoring environment, so the most attractive looks are on secondary volume rather than an aggressive points over.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(→ from 17.6)

APG

3.8(↑ from 2.8)

RPG

4.4(↑ from 3.5)

Key Matchup

Denver’s defensive profile shows a 116.68 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a 0.288 scoring suppression mark. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the main read is on the team-level defensive environment rather than a single matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Green▼	Points	12.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	21	✓
Jalen Green▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	6	✓
Jalen Green▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✓
Jalen Green▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Jalen Green▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Jalen Green▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Jalen Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Jalen Green▼	P+R	15.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	27	✓
Jalen Green▼	P+A	15.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	27	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5OVER10%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+18.5% edge▼

PRA25.5OVER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+15.0% edge▼

P+R25OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A24.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM2.5UNDER17%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA7UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

REB4.5UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER18%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER21%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

FTM2UNDER42%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

FTA2UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Green

Points OVER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board because it sits far below both his season average of 17.6 PPG and his recent 32.3 MPG workload. The matchup is not ideal, but the line is low enough that his expanded role from teammate absences makes the over the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cameron Johnson	1	5	2	50%	50%
Jamal Murray	1	1	5	50%	75%
Christian Braun	1	1	2	100%	100%
Julian Strawther	1	1	0	0%	0%
Spencer Jones	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 12.562%MEDIUM

The line is well below his season mean of 17.6 PPG and his away mean of 23.5 PPG, while his recent minutes are up to 32.3. Even with Denver’s scoring suppression, the listed line is low enough to clear if he maintains his current role.

reboundsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 3.5 RPG on the season and 4.4 RPG over the last 5, which is above this number. The recent increase in minutes supports a modest rebound floor.

assistsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

His season assist rate is 2.8 APG and the last 5 are 3.8 APG, so 2.5 is below his normal range. The boost in recent playing time is the key support here.

threesOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.29 made threes per game on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, making this a live over if volume holds. His three-point production has been volatile, so confidence stays moderate.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a favorable threshold. Defensive stats are volatile, but the line is soft.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

His last 10 show 2.5 turnovers per game and his last 20 are at 2.4, right around this range. With elevated ball-handling from the increased role, the over is slightly more appealing than the under.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.25 stocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 5, which sits below 1.5. Even with a few strong recent games, the combined defensive stat line remains fairly volatile.

prOVER 15.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is comfortably above 15.5 when combining 17.6 PPG and 3.5 RPG. The combo prop carries more variance, but the number is modest relative to his scoring role.

paOVER 15.553%MEDIUM

He averages 17.6 points and 2.8 assists on the season, so this line is well below his typical combined output. The assist uptick in recent games helps, but combo props are inherently higher variance.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS