Oklahoma City Thunder vs Philadelphia 76ers — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

56-15 | L10: 10-0

PHI

Philadelphia 76ers

39-32 | L10: 6-4

2026-03-23

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

OKC95%

5%PHI

OKC95-80PHI

Key Factors

*76ers without Joel Embiid (26.4 PPG) - out ()
*76ers without Paul George (16.2 PPG) - out ()
*Thunder without Ajay Mitchell (14.2 PPG) - out ()
*76ers without Dominick Barlow (8.2 PPG) - doubtful (Ankle)
*Thunder outscores opponents by +15.7 PPG vs 76ers's +0.9

Key Matchup

Thunder has matchup advantages

OKC Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

OKC Players

Isaiah Hartenstein

Adem Bona2g · 7m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Andre Drummond2g · 5m+0.0%150% eFGlow

Dominick Barlow2g · 2m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Dominick Barlow2g · 4m+0.0%0% eFGlow

VJ Edgecombe1g · 3m+0.0%33% eFGlow

Oklahoma City enters at 56-15 with a 10-0 L10 run and an 11-game streak, while Philadelphia is 39-32 and 6-4 over its last 10. Both teams are on 2 days rest with 3 games in the last 7 days, so workload should be manageable, but the Thunder’s recent form and the 76ers’ absences set up a tough matchup for Philadelphia’s supporting cast.

Team Comparison

OKCPHI

Key Players

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—

He’s averaging 31.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 6.6 APG this season, with 31.0 PPG over his last 5 and 30.9 over his last 10. Philadelphia has no historical defender matchup data available beyond the listed key defenders, and his matchup profile remains elite even with a slightly lower scoring environment.

ProjectedPTS: 21.3-27.9-34.5REB: 1.2-4.2-7.2AST: 4.3-6.7-9.1

Holmgren is at 17.2 PPG and 9.0 RPG for the season, but his last 5 show 16.8 PPG and 8.4 RPG while his last 10 rebounds jump to 10.0. He has a clear rebounding base with 9.5 RPG on the season and 12.4 RPG at home, which matters in a game where he should see stable minutes.

ProjectedPTS: 8.6-15.2-21.8REB: 5.8-8.8-11.8AST: 0-1.3-3.7

Williams is averaging 17.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 5.4 APG this season, with a 17.0 PPG / 4.4 APG last 5 and 18.5 PPG / 5.5 APG over the last 10. His recent workload dipped to 23.8 MPG in the last 5, so volume is the main prop risk even though his all-around production remains strong.

ProjectedPTS: 8.8-15.4-22REB: 1-4-7AST: 2.6-5-7.4

Dort’s season line is 8.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 1.3 APG, but his last 5 are down to 5.6 PPG and 0.6 APG. That drop, plus the lower recent scoring output, makes his points prop more fragile than his season average suggests.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Isaiah Hartenstein▼ OKC	Rebounds	7.5draftkings	OVER	64%HIGH	50%	+7.7%	12	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼ OKC	Points	29.5draftkings	UNDER	68%HIGH	40%	+14.3%	22	✓
Justin Edwards▼ PHI	3PM	1.5draftkings	OVER	59%MEDIUM	50%	+5.5%	2	✓
Adem Bona▼ PHI	Rebounds	5.5fanduel	UNDER	72%HIGH	40%	+11.8%	5	✓
Luguentz Dort▼ OKC	Points	7.5stake	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	70%	0.0%	2	✓

Model Comparison

5 models · 12 props compared

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Props Shown

12 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Points UNDER 29.5HIGH

The line is below his 31.6 PPG season average, but our model still finds 14.3% edge on the under at DraftKings with 67.8% probability. In an efficient matchup, the price on his ceiling is still too steep.

Isaiah Hartenstein

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

He’s at 9.5 RPG for the season and 10.0 RPG over the last 10, making 7.5 too low relative to his baseline. The DraftKings line carries a 7.7% edge and positive EV of 13.68 per 100.

Justin Edwards

Threes OVER 1.5MEDIUM

He’s averaging 1.09 threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, so the line sits in a workable range. The 5.5% edge at DraftKings is solid, though the recent 8-point game shows some volatility.

Parlay of the Game

Isaiah Hartenstein — Rebounds OVER 7.5Leg 1

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Points UNDER 29.5Leg 2

Justin Edwards — Threes OVER 1.5Leg 3

This mixes one Oklahoma City rebounding angle with two Philadelphia/OKC scoring-volume angles without relying on overly correlated combo props. Hartenstein’s rebounding floor is the cleanest leg, while SGA under and Edwards over both come from line/value mismatches rather than hot-streak chasing.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Joel Embiid is Out and Paul George is Out for Philadelphia; Dominick Barlow is Doubtful. Ajay Mitchell is Out for Oklahoma City. These absences increase usage for VJ Edgecombe, Justin Edwards, Quentin Grimes, and Trendon Watford, while keeping the Thunder rotation stable.

Player Deep Dives

Isaiah HartensteinOKC

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Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.