Thunder has matchup advantages
Oklahoma City enters at 56-15 with a 10-0 L10 run and an 11-game streak, while Philadelphia is 39-32 and 6-4 over its last 10. Both teams are on 2 days rest with 3 games in the last 7 days, so workload should be manageable, but the Thunder’s recent form and the 76ers’ absences set up a tough matchup for Philadelphia’s supporting cast.
He’s averaging 31.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 6.6 APG this season, with 31.0 PPG over his last 5 and 30.9 over his last 10. Philadelphia has no historical defender matchup data available beyond the listed key defenders, and his matchup profile remains elite even with a slightly lower scoring environment.
Holmgren is at 17.2 PPG and 9.0 RPG for the season, but his last 5 show 16.8 PPG and 8.4 RPG while his last 10 rebounds jump to 10.0. He has a clear rebounding base with 9.5 RPG on the season and 12.4 RPG at home, which matters in a game where he should see stable minutes.
Williams is averaging 17.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 5.4 APG this season, with a 17.0 PPG / 4.4 APG last 5 and 18.5 PPG / 5.5 APG over the last 10. His recent workload dipped to 23.8 MPG in the last 5, so volume is the main prop risk even though his all-around production remains strong.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Edge | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Hartenstein▼ OKC | Rebounds | 7.5draftkings | OVER | 64%HIGH | 50% | +7.7% | 12 | ✓ |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼ OKC | Points | 29.5draftkings | UNDER | 68%HIGH | 40% | +14.3% | 22 | ✓ |
Justin Edwards▼ PHI | 3PM | 1.5draftkings | OVER | 59%MEDIUM | 50% | +5.5% | 2 | ✓ |
Adem Bona▼ PHI | Rebounds | 5.5fanduel | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 40% | +11.8% | 5 | ✓ |
Luguentz Dort▼ OKC | Points | 7.5stake | UNDER | 54%MEDIUM | 70% | 0.0% | 2 | ✓ |
5 models · 12 props compared
Props Shown
12
12 total on slate
Models
5
1 game view
Unanimous
11
Full agreement across submitted picks
The line is below his 31.6 PPG season average, but our model still finds 14.3% edge on the under at DraftKings with 67.8% probability. In an efficient matchup, the price on his ceiling is still too steep.
He’s at 9.5 RPG for the season and 10.0 RPG over the last 10, making 7.5 too low relative to his baseline. The DraftKings line carries a 7.7% edge and positive EV of 13.68 per 100.
He’s averaging 1.09 threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, so the line sits in a workable range. The 5.5% edge at DraftKings is solid, though the recent 8-point game shows some volatility.
This mixes one Oklahoma City rebounding angle with two Philadelphia/OKC scoring-volume angles without relying on overly correlated combo props. Hartenstein’s rebounding floor is the cleanest leg, while SGA under and Edwards over both come from line/value mismatches rather than hot-streak chasing.
Joel Embiid is Out and Paul George is Out for Philadelphia; Dominick Barlow is Doubtful. Ajay Mitchell is Out for Oklahoma City. These absences increase usage for VJ Edgecombe, Justin Edwards, Quentin Grimes, and Trendon Watford, while keeping the Thunder rotation stable.
Hartenstein’s season profile is 9.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 3.8 APG, but his last 5 scoring is only 3.2 PPG while his last 5 assists are 5.4 APG. The rebounding floor is still strong, but the recent scoring dip and the variance in his last 5 make combo props riskier than rebounds alone.
Edgecombe is averaging 15.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 4.0 APG on the season, but his last 5 have surged to 20.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.8 APG. That hot stretch is a regression risk versus his season baseline, but the expanded role is real with Joel Embiid and Paul George out.
Edwards has a season line of 6.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, and 1.4 APG, but his last 5 jump to 18.2 PPG and 2.4 APG. The most recent game was only 8 points, so this is a volatile role-driven profile rather than a clean hot streak to blindly chase.
Watford is at 6.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 2.6 APG this season, and he’s up to 10.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 3.6 APG over the last 5. His output is clearly tied to his larger recent role, but the last-5 minutes and production still carry moderate volatility.
Grimes has a 14.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.4 APG season line, but his last 5 are 24.6 PPG and 3.6 APG, which is well above his season level and signals regression risk. He’s still in a big-minute role at 33.6 MPG over the last 5, but the 24.6 PPG run is hard to project as a baseline.