AI Model:

Luguentz Dort▼

OKC · SG

PPG

8.5

RPG

3.8

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

5.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

8.5

5.6

RPG-0.4

3.8

3.4

APG-0.7

1.3

0.6

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

DET

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs DET: 3 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 5 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 16 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 8 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 5 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

OVER 2.5BETONLINEAG

74%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

73%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

69%

UNDER 1

70%

P+R

UNDER 9.5BETMGM

64%

P+A

UNDER 7.5BETMGM

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.2

7.5

RPG

3.5

3.6

APG

1.3

1.5

vs PHI (H2H)9 games

PPG

10.1

RPG

3.7

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	2	21	50%	+11.5%	low
Jamal Murray	3	19	45%	+4.4%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	18	31%	-10.7%	low
Anthony Edwards	3	17	71%

Dort’s scoring is trending down, but the 3-point volume still keeps him playable

Luguentz Dort’s recent form is clearly softer than his season baseline, with 5.6 PPG over the last 5 and 6.4 over the last 10 versus 8.5 for the season. The matchup adds some support on the scoring side because Philadelphia has a 116.06 defensive rating and the available data shows his head-to-head average at 10.1 PPG in 9 games. Still, his low recent usage and volatile scoring profile make the under side more attractive on most primary scoring props, while threes remain the cleanest value area thanks to steady volume.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.6(↓ from 8.5)

RPG

3.4(↓ from 3.8)

APG

0.6(↓ from 1.3)

3PM

1.4(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. Philadelphia’s team defensive profile shows a 116.06 defensive rating and 0.165 scoring suppression, which is a mild drag on scoring outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Luguentz Dort▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	74%HIGH	1/2	80%	2	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%	1	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	10%	0	✗
Luguentz Dort▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	P+R	9.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Luguentz Dort▼	P+A	7.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A9.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS7.5UNDER3%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.035▼

PRA10.5OVER8%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+5.9% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved -3.0; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

R+A4.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

REB2.5UNDER10%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge shifted -0.330▼

3PM1.5OVER1%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+6.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge shifted +0.178▼

P+R11.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Luguentz Dort

Rebounds OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the strongest value play in the dataset, with a 20.9% edge and 38.27 EV per 100 at betonlineag. Dort averages 3.79 rebounds for the season and 3.9 over the last 5, so the line of 2.5 is well below his typical output.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tyrese Maxey	1	6	2	33%	33%
Dominick Barlow	2	2	0	0%	0%
Paul George	1	1	0	0%	0%
VJ Edgecombe	1	1	0	0%	0%
Adem Bona	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.47, but the last 5 is only 5.6 and the last 10 is 6.4, showing a clear downgrade in scoring form. With multiple books hanging 7.5 and his recent role/minutes slightly below season level, the under is the safer side.

reboundsOVER 2.574%HIGH

This is a strong value spot: the provided edge is 20.9% with an estimated 38.27 EV per 100. His season average is 3.79 rebounds and recent production is 3.9, so clearing 2.5 remains very realistic.

assistsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

Dort’s season mean is just 1.26 assists, and his last 5 is 0.6 with no indication of a major playmaking role spike. The higher-variance combo market makes this even less appealing on the over.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

This is the best +EV scoring-style prop in the data, with a 5.5% edge and 10.29 EV per 100 at DraftKings. He averages 1.84 threes for the season and 1.4 over the last 5, so 2+ makes sense but with modest confidence.

stealsUNDER 1.573%HIGH

He averages 0.8 steals for the season and 0.6 over the last 5, well below a 1.5 line. Even with active defensive stats, this number is too high for his typical production.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 0.4 and the last 5 is also 0.4, so this is close to his normal range. The line is reasonable enough to lean over, but the confidence stays modest because the sample is volatile.

stocksUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 1.24 and recent stocks are 0.8, so a 1.5 combined defensive-events expectation is slightly rich. His away stocks are only 0.5, which further leans under.

turnoversUNDER 170%HIGH

He is not a high-usage creator, with recent turnover rates sitting at 0.6 in the last 5 and 0.8 in the last 10. With low assists and modest ball-handling, the under is the more natural side.

prUNDER 9.564%MEDIUM

His season mean for points plus rebounds is 12.26, but the recent scoring dip matters and combo props carry extra variance. Because his points have slid to 5.6 over the last 5, the under is preferred at this price.

paUNDER 7.567%MEDIUM

Points plus assists is being pulled down by both categories: 5.6 PPG and 0.6 APG over the last 5. That makes 8+ a tougher ask than the season numbers imply.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS