AI Model:

VJ Edgecombe▲

PHI · PG

PPG

15.8

RPG

5.7

APG

4.0

L5 PPG

20.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.8

15.8

20.6

RPG+2.1

5.7

7.8

APG+1.8

4.0

5.8

SPG-0.4

1.4

1.0

BPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

MIA

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs MIA: 19 pts

BOS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BOS: 23 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 38 pts

UTA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs UTA: 22 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

56%

3PM

UNDER 2.5BETMGM

82%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

64%

UNDER 2

61%

P+R

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

P+A

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

69%

R+A

OVER 9.5FANDUEL

57%

UNDER 0.5

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.3

17.5

RPG

6.6

6.5

APG

3.1

3.9

vs OKC (H2H)1 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

2.0

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	23	38%	-10.5%	medium
Derrick White	4	21	27%	-23.8%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	16	52%	-2.9%	medium
Andrew Nembhard	3	16	53%

Edgecombe’s all-around volume is up, but the book is still pricing him above his season baseline

VJ Edgecombe is trending up with season averages of 15.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, but his last 5 has jumped to 20.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, so regression risk is real. The market is hanging his points around 18.5-19.5 and his PRA around 29.5-30.5, which sits above his season profile and closer to his hot stretch than his long-run baseline. Philadelphia’s offensive situation is boosted by the absences of Joel Embiid and Paul George, but Oklahoma City’s team defense numbers are strong enough that overs still need a high bar. With no back-to-back spot and no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, the safer lean is to the under on inflated scoring and combo lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.6(↑ from 15.8)

RPG

7.8(↑ from 5.7)

APG

5.8(↑ from 4.0)

STL+BLK

1.8(→ from 2.0)

3PM

1.0(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no defender-specific edge to project from. Oklahoma City’s opponent defense profile is solid, with a 107.54 defensive rating, pace of 100, and three-point suppression of 0.786.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
VJ Edgecombe▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	50%	35	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	80%	7	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	40%	41	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	39	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	R+A	9.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	10	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

PTS12.5UNDER0%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)16/2080%▼

PRA21.5UNDER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)14/2070%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A23UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER25%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

STL1.5UNDER51%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)9/2045%+9.1% edge▼

FTM2.5UNDER34%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

FTA3UNDER41%gbtAvoid (7/20)6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA5UNDER41%gbtAvoid (6/20)6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB5.5UNDER29%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

VJ Edgecombe

Threes UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: the UNDER at 2.5 has a 12.8% edge and an expected value of 19.47 per 100 at BetMGM. It also aligns with his season 3PM of 1.95 and last-5 3PM of 1.0, making 2.5 a difficult number to clear.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	1	5	10	75%	75%
Jalen Williams	2	2	2	50%	50%
Cason Wallace	2	2	0	0%	0%
Aaron Wiggins	2	2	3	100%	150%
Alex Caruso	2	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 18.578%HIGH

His season mean is 15.84 points and the value data shows the UNDER at 18.5 has a 14.8% edge with our_prob_under at 0.676. Even with his last-5 spike to 20.6, this is still a higher bar than his baseline and regression risk is elevated.

reboundsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

He averages 5.67 rebounds on the season, which is essentially right on the line, but the value data does not show a strong edge and the under is only modestly preferred in the market. His last-5 rebound surge to 7.8 is a clear hot stretch, but it is above his season norm.

assistsUNDER 4.556%MEDIUM

Season assists are 4.0 and his last-5 is 5.8, but the edge on either side is minimal and the standard deviation is 2.2, which keeps confidence low. With no specific defender matchup data, this is more of a pass than a strong over.

threesUNDER 2.582%HIGH

Value data is strongest here: the UNDER at 2.5 has a 12.8% edge and our_prob_under at 0.783. His season 3PM is 1.95 and last-5 is just 1.0, so the market line is above both his current form and season average.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season, which is close to the 1.5 line, but the recent profile has been only 1.0 in the last 5. The line is not far off his baseline, so the under is the safer side.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game and has 0.8 blocks over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low hurdle. The variance is still meaningful, so this stays a modest-confidence over.

stocksUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.98 and recent is 2.3, but combo volatility makes this a tougher over to trust. The projected 2.5 line would sit above his typical output, so the under is the more conservative lean.

turnoversUNDER 261%MEDIUM

He has 1.9 turnovers over his last 20 and 1.8 over his last 10, so a projected 2.0 line would be near his current range. The recent games show a few low-turnover outcomes, making the under slightly preferable.

prUNDER 24.572%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds profile is 21.51, well below a 24.5 line, and the recent scoring/rebounding surge is what’s inflating this market. Because combo props carry extra variance, the under is the better bet.

paUNDER 23.569%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 19.84, so 23.5 requires him to beat his normal baseline by a wide margin. His last 5 is hot, but combo props are volatile and the under remains the safer side.

raOVER 9.557%MEDIUM

He averages 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists for a season RA of 9.7, which is right on the line. The last 5 has climbed to 13.6, but that is a hot stretch, so this over is only a moderate-confidence play.

double_doubleUNDER 0.567%MEDIUM

He has strong all-around usage, but his season averages are not consistently near double digits in two categories, and the recent spike is still not enough to make this a high-probability over. The under is the safer default.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS