AI Model:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—

OKC · PG

PPG

31.6

RPG

4.4

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

31.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.6

31.6

31.0

RPG-0.4

4.4

4.0

APG+0.2

6.6

6.8

SPG+1.0

1.4

2.4

BPG0.0

0.8

UNDER 29.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

29.5

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 36 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 30 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 26 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 27 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 35 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 35 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 20 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 40 pts

BKN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BKN: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs WAS: 40 pts

Over 29.5

Under 29.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 29.5FANDUEL

78%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

58%

OVER 2.5

55%

P+A

OVER 35.5FANDUEL

59%

PRA

OVER 39.5FANDUEL

57%

OVER 0.5

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

30.3

31.7

RPG

4.9

3.9

APG

7.9

6.4

vs PHI (H2H)6 games

PPG

28.3

RPG

5.2

APG

6.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	4	19	35%	-25.2%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	15	57%	-8.5%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	14	60%	-15.2%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	12	35%

Shai’s elite floor remains intact, but the points number is a little rich

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is producing at his usual star level with a season line of 31.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.4 rebounds, and his last-20 scoring has stayed remarkably steady at 31.1 PPG. The matchup is not overly intimidating on paper, but Philadelphia’s defense context and SGA’s own history here suggest a more controlled scoring projection than the market’s higher point numbers. His assist profile has been strong recently at 7.6 over the last 10 and 7.0 over the last 20, which keeps his combo props viable, but the best value still leans to the under on points. No specific defender matchup data is available that materially changes the outlook.

Stat Trends

PPG

31.0(→ from 31.6)

APG

6.8(↑ from 6.6)

RPG

4.0(↓ from 4.4)

STL+BLK

3.2(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Philadelphia’s defense context is in the data, but no specific defender matchup data is available. His head-to-head scoring against this opponent is 28.33 PPG in 6 games, which is below his season mark and supports caution on inflated points lines.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Points	29.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	40%	22	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	5	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	P+A	35.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	27	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	PRA	39.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	32	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

AST6.5OVER17%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+13.5% edge▼

PRA41.5OVER3%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.087; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R34.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

P+A37UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS30.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+5.1% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%+7.2% edge▼

R+A11.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

REB3.5UNDER5%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x12/2060%▼

STL1.5UNDER5%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Points UNDER 29.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: the supplied value data shows a 14.3% edge on the under at 29.5 with an expected value of 26.8 per 100. It also aligns with his 28.33 PPG average in 6 games vs this opponent, making it a stronger play than chasing the higher points market.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dominick Barlow	2	4	0	0%	0%
VJ Edgecombe	1	3	2	33%	33%
Quentin Grimes	1	3	0	0%	0%
Adem Bona	2	1	2	100%	100%
Tyrese Maxey	1	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 29.578%HIGH

His season average is 31.6 PPG, but the provided value data shows the under at 29.5 has a 14.3% edge and our prob under is 0.678. He has also averaged 28.33 PPG in 6 games vs this opponent, which sits below the market's lower points line.

assistsOVER 6.564%MEDIUM

He is at 6.6 APG for the season and 7.6 APG over the last 10, with recent minutes holding at 34.2. The over is supported by multiple books showing positive edge, though the variance is still meaningful.

reboundsOVER 3.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.4 RPG and home mean is 4.94, both above this line. The rebound over is also consistently priced with positive edge in the supplied value data.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.71 made threes per game for the season and has 1.4 over the last 10, which is close enough to the line to stay playable. The over has positive edge in the supplied value props, but this remains a moderate-confidence play.

stealsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals per game on the season and 2.4 over the last 5, with stocks also trending up recently. The line is high, but his defensive playmaking form is strong enough to keep the over in play.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5. This is a low-bar prop relative to his season production, though blocks remain volatile.

stocksOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.2, but the last 10 is 2.9 and the last 5 is 3.2, showing strong recent defensive production. That said, stocks are volatile, so confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He is at 2.5 turnovers per game on the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 10, so this is a live area for volume. The line is only projected because no sportsbook turnover line was provided.

paOVER 35.559%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is strong at 38.2 combined from season averages, and his recent assist bump supports the combo. Combo props are higher variance, so confidence is capped.

praOVER 39.557%MEDIUM

Season averages put him at 42.6 PRA, and his recent scoring/assist output stays near that level. Because combo props have more variance, this is a smaller edge than the individual stat props.

double_doubleOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He has clear two-category double-double potential through points and assists, and also rebounds in some game states. This is more of a ceiling-based play than a strong statistical edge.

timelineUNDER 29.5 PTS