AI Model:

Quentin Grimes▼

PHI · SG

PPG

14.1

RPG

3.7

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

24.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+10.5

14.1

24.6

RPG+0.9

3.7

4.6

APG+0.2

3.4

3.6

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 16 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 26 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 17 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 23 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 14 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 28 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 31 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 12 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 27 pts

UTA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs UTA: 25 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

71%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

82%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

OVER 2

60%

PRA

UNDER 27.5FANDUEL

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.6

14.7

RPG

3.9

3.2

APG

1.7

3.5

vs OKC (H2H)11 games

PPG

9.5

RPG

3.0

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anfernee Simons	3	13	71%	+4.9%	medium
Duncan Robinson	4	10	75%	+4.9%	medium
Payton Pritchard	4	10	25%	-20.1%	medium
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	10	69%

Usage spike keeps Grimes scoring upside alive, but the market is still pricing in too much

Quentin Grimes is riding a strong recent scoring stretch, averaging 24.6 PPG over his last 5 and 21.9 over his last 10, both well above his 14.1 season mark. That said, his longer sample is much closer to 15.7 PPG over the last 20, which supports some regression despite the elevated role from teammate absences like Joel Embiid and Paul George. His season assists and rebounds remain modest at 3.4 APG and 3.7 RPG, and the opponent profile is not especially favorable for an efficient outlier night. The projected environment still points to solid volume, but not enough to justify chasing the recent heater at inflated numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.6(↑ from 14.1)

RPG

4.6(↑ from 3.7)

APG

3.6(→ from 3.4)

3PM

1.4(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Oklahoma City’s defense has a 107.54 defensive rating and the matchup data does not provide any specific defender matchup data. His historical vs-opponent line is only 9.5 PPG in 11 games, which is well below both his season and recent scoring rates.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Quentin Grimes▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	40%
Quentin Grimes▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Quentin Grimes▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%
Quentin Grimes▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	80%
Quentin Grimes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%
Quentin Grimes▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%
Quentin Grimes▼	PRA	27.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.482; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

PTS13.5UNDER31%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

REB4UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER14%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

FTA2.5UNDER15%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER38%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Quentin Grimes

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because the season mean is 14.1 PPG, the last 20 is 15.7, and the value data repeatedly shows the UNDER with strong edge. The last 5 surge to 24.6 looks inflated relative to his longer form, so the market is asking for a level he has not sustained.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ajay Mitchell	1	2	0	0%	0%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	1	2	4	100%	100%
Cason Wallace	1	1	0	0%	0%
Aaron Wiggins	1	1	1	0%	0%
Chris Youngblood	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.578%HIGH

His season mean is 14.1 PPG and his last 20 is 15.7, both far below 19.5. The last 5 at 24.6 is a clear spike, but that gap suggests regression rather than a sustainable new baseline.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.7 RPG on the season and 4.5 over the last 10, with a 4.07 home mean. The edge is small, so this is a modest lean only.

assistsUNDER 3.571%HIGH

His season mean is 3.44 APG and his recent mean is 3.3, both slightly below 3.5. The 2.15 season standard deviation also signals some volatility, but not enough to make the over attractive.

threesUNDER 2.582%HIGH

He averages 1.78 threes per game on the season and 1.3 over the last 5, well short of 2.5. The value data also shows a strong UNDER edge on this line.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.25 and recent is 1.1, both below 1.5. With limited defensive event volume, the under is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 260%MEDIUM

He is at 1.9 turnovers per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 10. With his usage elevated recently, this line sits right near the threshold and leans over.

praUNDER 27.564%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 21.2 using the provided averages, while recent scoring has lifted the combo. Because combo props carry extra variance, the under is preferred unless the price is very favorable.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS