AI Model:

Jalen Williams▲

OKC · SF

PPG

17.5

RPG

4.7

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

17.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.5

17.5

17.0

RPG-1.7

4.7

3.0

APG-1.0

5.4

4.4

SPG-0.7

1.3

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

OVER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

PHX

2026-01-04

2026-01-04 vs PHX: 23 pts

CHA

2026-01-05

2026-01-05 vs CHA: 16 pts

UTA

2026-01-07

2026-01-07 vs UTA: 17 pts

MEM

2026-01-09

2026-01-09 vs MEM: 26 pts

MIA

2026-01-11

2026-01-11 vs MIA: 18 pts

SAS

2026-01-13

2026-01-13 vs SAS: 20 pts

HOU

2026-01-15

2026-01-15 vs HOU: 6 pts

MIA

2026-01-17

2026-01-17 vs MIA: 8 pts

LAL

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs LAL: 23 pts

PHX

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs PHX: 28 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 15.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

73%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

71%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

70%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

82%

P+A

OVER 18.5FANDUEL

57%

P+R

OVER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.4

17.7

RPG

4.0

5.0

APG

5.2

vs PHI (H2H)4 games

PPG

17.3

RPG

4.0

APG

4.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dillon Brooks	4	13	50%	-2.0%	medium
Victor Wembanyama	4	12	50%	+1.8%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	11	110%	+31.8%	medium
Stephon Castle	4	10	90%

Jalen Williams gets a usage bump, but the scoring line is still playable on the over

Jalen Williams is producing a steady all-around line with season marks of 17.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.4 assists across 29.1 MPG, and the absences around him matter: Ajay Mitchell is out, which can support a larger offensive role. His last-10 scoring is 18.5 PPG, slightly above season average, while his assist numbers remain stable at 5.5 over the last 10. The matchup context is favorable enough to keep his floor intact, but Philadelphia's opponent defense still carries a 116.06 defensive rating and a 0.165 scoring suppression, so this is not an automatic smash spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.0(→ from 17.5)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 4.7)

APG

4.4(↓ from 5.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no clear one-on-one defender edge to project. Philadelphia's opponent profile shows a 116.06 defensive rating with 0.165 scoring suppression, which slightly tempers upside even with some offensive absences on the opposing side.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Williams▼	Points	15.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	18	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	73%HIGH	1/2	70%	6	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✓
Jalen Williams▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	80%	1	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	70%	0	✓
Jalen Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jalen Williams▼	P+A	18.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	24	✓
Jalen Williams▼	P+R	17.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A22OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A10UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R21OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Williams

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: he averages 5.4 assists on the season, 5.5 over the last 10, and the value feed shows a 20.2% edge on the over at 3.5. The line is well below both his season and recent production, making it the strongest play on the card.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Paul George	1	7	0	0%	0%
Tyrese Maxey	1	2	4	100%	150%
VJ Edgecombe	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jared McCain	1	1	0	0%	0%
Justin Edwards	1	1	3	100%	150%

pointsOVER 15.558%MEDIUM

He averages 17.5 points for the season and 18.5 over the last 10, both above this number. The recent dip to 17.0 over the last 5 is small enough that the available 15.5 line still looks playable.

assistsOVER 3.573%HIGH

His season average is 5.4 assists, last-10 is 5.5, and the value data shows strong support on the over with a 20.2% edge at this line. The recent assist profile is much stronger than the 3.5 threshold.

reboundsOVER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 4.7 rebounds on the season and 4.5 over the last 20, so 3.5 is a modest number relative to his baseline. Value data also shows a 19.0% to 19.8% edge on the over at 3.5.

threesUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages only 0.77 made threes per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 5, well below 1.5. The data supports a low-volume three-point outcome more often than not.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His season steals average is 1.3, but last-10 drops to 0.8 and last-5 to 0.6. With the line at 1.5, the under is the safer side given the recent decline.

blocksUNDER 0.582%HIGH

He averages just 0.3 blocks per game for the season and 0.2 over the last 10. That makes 0.5 a clear under despite the low line.

paOVER 18.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists production is 22.9 using 17.5 PPG and 5.4 APG, and the last-10 assist form stays strong. This is a fair combo line, but combo props carry more variance.

prOVER 17.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 22.15 using 17.5 PPG and 4.7 RPG, which is comfortably above 17.5. The recent rebound dip adds some caution, but the gap is still meaningful.

timelineOVER 15.5 PTS