Toronto Raptors vs Utah Jazz — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

TOR

Toronto Raptors

39-31 | L10: 4-6

UTA

Utah Jazz

21-50 | L10: 3-7

2026-03-23

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

TOR95%

5%UTA

TOR104-95UTA

Key Factors

*Jazz without Isaiah Collier (11.7 PPG) - out (Hamstring)
*Raptors outscores opponents by +1.8 PPG vs Jazz's -7.1
*Raptors has key positional matchup advantages
*Raptors is hot (6-4 last 10) vs Jazz's recent struggles (3-7)
*Jazz has home court advantage

Key Matchup

Raptors has matchup advantages

UTA Advantages

+ Better roster depth

TOR Advantages

Key Defensive Matchups

TOR Players

Brandon Ingram

Ace Bailey1g · 4m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Cody Williams1g · 3m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Svi Mykhailiuk1g · 3m+0.0%60% eFGlow

RJ Barrett

Brice Sensabaugh2g · 4m+0.0%50% eFGlow

Ace Bailey2g · 4m+0.0%30% eFGlow

Toronto enters at 39-31 but has dropped 2 straight and is on a back-to-back with 1 day since its last game, while Utah is 21-50 and has lost 1 straight after going 3-7 over its last 10. The Jazz are at home with 2 days rest, and Isaiah Collier is out, which has already expanded ball-handling and usage for Utah's starters.

Team Comparison

TORUTA

Key Players

He is averaging 10.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 2.4 APG this season, with 12.2 PPG over his last 5 and 13.9 PPG over his last 10. Toronto's 124.8 opponent def_rating indicator is on the tougher side for scoring, and with no historical defender matchup data available beyond the listed matchups, the strongest angle is on his rebounds where his 9.5 line sits above his 7.0 season mean.

ProjectedPTS: 3.9-10.5-17.1REB: 3.6-6.6-9.6AST: 0.6-3-5.4

Williams has surged to 19.6 PPG over his last 5 and 15.5 PPG over his last 10, far above his 7.3 season scoring average, while playing 32.2 MPG over the last 5. Because that recent form is well above the season baseline, regression risk is real even with Isaiah Collier out creating extra usage.

ProjectedPTS: 4.7-11.3-17.9REB: 0.4-3.4-6.4AST: 0.1-2.5-4.9

Bailey is at 12.8 PPG on the season but has jumped to 20.8 PPG over his last 5 and 18.8 PPG over his last 10, with 29.0 MPG in the last 10 and 4.6 FG3M attempts per game over the last 5. The scoring line is elevated versus the season average, but his recent minutes and shot volume support a live scoring role despite high variance.

ProjectedPTS: 8.2-14.8-21.4REB: 1.2-4.2-7.2AST: 0-2.1-4.5

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Kyle Filipowski▼ UTA	Points	13.5draftkings	UNDER	79%HIGH	40%	+7.0%	6	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼ UTA	Rebounds	9.5stake	UNDER	76%HIGH	60%	+1.2%	8	✓
Cody Williams▼ UTA	Points	13.5draftkings	OVER	67%MEDIUM	40%	+17.7%	—	—
Brandon Ingram▼ TOR	Points	21.5draftkings	OVER	64%MEDIUM	40%	+11.1%	—	—
Scottie Barnes▼ TOR	Rebounds	7.5draftkings	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	80%	+1.3%	7	✓

Model Comparison

5 models · 14 props compared

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Props Shown

14 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Kyle Filipowski

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the best value on the board: 7.0% edge with 57.9% model under probability. His 10.7 season PPG sits well below 13.5, and the 12.2 PPG last 5 still leaves him below the line.

Brandon Ingram

Points OVER 21.5MEDIUM

DraftKings gives a 11.1% edge to the over, and his season average is 21.6 PPG. The recent form is volatile, but the line is still close to his normal scoring level.

Cody Williams

Points OVER 13.5MEDIUM

The model shows a 17.7% edge and a 69.0% hit rate on the over, driven by 19.6 PPG over his last 5 and 15.5 PPG over his last 10. The main caution is regression because that recent output is far above his 7.3 season average.

Parlay of the Game

Kyle Filipowski — Points UNDER 13.5Leg 1

Brandon Ingram — Points OVER 21.5Leg 2

These legs are not perfectly correlated, but they fit the same game script: Utah's center scoring stays below a tougher line while Toronto's primary scorer clears a modest number despite the back-to-back. The combination uses the clearest season-vs-line edges from each side.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Isaiah Collier is out for Utah with Injury/Illness-LeftHamstring, removing 11.7 PPG, 7.2 APG and 25.8 MPG from the rotation. Jakob Poeltl is out for Toronto with Injury/Illness-Back, which removes 10.4 PPG and 7.6 RPG and increases frontcourt uncertainty for the Raptors.

Player Deep Dives

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.