AI Model:

Immanuel Quickley▲

TOR · PG

PPG

16.9

RPG

4.1

APG

6.0

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.1

16.9

11.8

RPG-1.3

4.1

2.8

APG-1.2

6.0

4.8

SPG+0.7

1.3

2.0

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

OVER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 13 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 18 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 10 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 25 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 17 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 10 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 11 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

STL

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

PRA

UNDER 22.5

64%

P+A

UNDER 22.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.2

18.2

RPG

3.2

APG

5.5

6.1

vs UTA (H2H)11 games

PPG

14.2

RPG

3.7

APG

2.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
VJ Edgecombe	4	19	64%	+1.0%	medium
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	4	16	61%	-0.1%	medium
Anfernee Simons	5	14	43%	-11.2%	medium
Ryan Rollins	3	14	44%

Quickley’s scoring line looks playable, but the assist and rebound markets lean cautious

Immanuel Quickley is averaging 16.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 6.0 APG on the season while playing 32.5 MPG, but his last 5 games have dipped to 11.8 PPG and 4.8 APG. The matchup environment is neutral-to-friendly for scoring given Utah’s 124.8 defensive rating and the game pace of 100, though Toronto is on a back-to-back which can add volatility. The absence of Isaiah Collier removes 11.7 PPG and 7.2 APG from the opponent, but the provided matchup data does not identify a specific defender to target. Overall, his points line is the cleanest angle, while rebounds and assists are a bit more dependent on recent form and game flow.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↓ from 16.9)

APG

4.8(↓ from 6.0)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 4.1)

SPG

2.0(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Utah’s team defense context is not elite, with a 124.8 defensive rating, but the game pace is only 100 which can limit total counting stats. There is no specific defender matchup data to isolate, so the key read is more on environment than on a single stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Immanuel Quickley▼	Points	16.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	30%
Immanuel Quickley▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Immanuel Quickley▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Immanuel Quickley▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Immanuel Quickley▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Immanuel Quickley▼	PRA	22.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Immanuel Quickley▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5OVER13%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)13/2065%+12.6% edgeValue edge changed +0.038; Odds moved materially; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM2.5OVER7%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)12/2060%+16.5% edgeScorecard changed +3.0▼

AST4.5OVER7%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line moved -1.0; Value edge shifted +0.185▼

P+R20.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB3.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA22.5UNDER2%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted -0.419▼

P+A23UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A9UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

STL1.5UNDER23%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x9/2045%Line nudged +0.5; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Immanuel Quickley

Points OVER 16.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board with a 11.3% edge and our over probability at 0.656. Even with the recent 11.8 PPG last-5 dip, his season average of 16.9 and away average of 18.2 support clearing 16.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Isaiah Collier	1	6	4	0%	0%
Svi Mykhailiuk	1	2	0	0%	0%
Lauri Markkanen	1	1	2	50%	50%
Ace Bailey	1	1	0	0%	0%
Brice Sensabaugh	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 16.572%HIGH

Value props show a 11.3% edge on OVER 16.5 with our projected over probability at 0.656. His season mean is 16.9 and the away mean is 18.2, which supports the over more than the recent 11.8 PPG last-5 dip.

reboundsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

Season average is 4.1 rebounds and last 5 is only 2.8, while the value data favors the UNDER at 4.5. The rebound profile is relatively low-variance but still below the book line.

assistsUNDER 6.566%MEDIUM

Quickley averages exactly 6.0 APG on the season and 4.8 APG over the last 5, both short of 6.5. The under is also supported by the value data, though the margin is not huge.

threesOVER 2.569%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 made threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, so 2.5 is in range. The value props data shows a 10.1% edge on OVER 2.5.

stealsOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 steals per game on the season and 1.5 in away games, with 2.0 steals over the last 5. The line is aggressive, but the recent defensive activity gives the over some support.

praUNDER 22.564%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 27.0, but the recent form is down and combo props carry extra variance. Given the 16.9 PPG season mean and 4.1 RPG with 6.0 APG, the current scoring/rebounding dip makes the under safer than chasing the full combo over.

paUNDER 22.562%MEDIUM

Quickley’s season P+A is 22.9, but his last 5 P+A is just 16.6 and the recent trend is down. That puts this line close enough to lean under given the volatility.

timelineOVER 16.5 PTS