Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe | 4 | 19 | 64% | +1.0% | medium |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 4 | 16 | 61% | -0.1% | medium |
| Anfernee Simons | 5 | 14 | 43% | -11.2% | medium |
| Ryan Rollins | 3 | 14 | 44% |
Immanuel Quickley is averaging 16.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 6.0 APG on the season while playing 32.5 MPG, but his last 5 games have dipped to 11.8 PPG and 4.8 APG. The matchup environment is neutral-to-friendly for scoring given Utah’s 124.8 defensive rating and the game pace of 100, though Toronto is on a back-to-back which can add volatility. The absence of Isaiah Collier removes 11.7 PPG and 7.2 APG from the opponent, but the provided matchup data does not identify a specific defender to target. Overall, his points line is the cleanest angle, while rebounds and assists are a bit more dependent on recent form and game flow.
Utah’s team defense context is not elite, with a 124.8 defensive rating, but the game pace is only 100 which can limit total counting stats. There is no specific defender matchup data to isolate, so the key read is more on environment than on a single stopper.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Immanuel Quickley▼ | Points | 16.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 30% |
Immanuel Quickley▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 90% |
Immanuel Quickley▼ | Assists | 6.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% |
Immanuel Quickley▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 69%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% |
Immanuel Quickley▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% |
Immanuel Quickley▼ | PRA | 22.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% |
Immanuel Quickley▼ | P+A | 22.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% |
This is the clearest value on the board with a 11.3% edge and our over probability at 0.656. Even with the recent 11.8 PPG last-5 dip, his season average of 16.9 and away average of 18.2 support clearing 16.5.
| medium |
| Terance Mann | 3 | 13 | 50% | -4.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Collier | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0% | 0% |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Lauri Markkanen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Ace Bailey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Value props show a 11.3% edge on OVER 16.5 with our projected over probability at 0.656. His season mean is 16.9 and the away mean is 18.2, which supports the over more than the recent 11.8 PPG last-5 dip.
Season average is 4.1 rebounds and last 5 is only 2.8, while the value data favors the UNDER at 4.5. The rebound profile is relatively low-variance but still below the book line.
Quickley averages exactly 6.0 APG on the season and 4.8 APG over the last 5, both short of 6.5. The under is also supported by the value data, though the margin is not huge.
He averages 2.6 made threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, so 2.5 is in range. The value props data shows a 10.1% edge on OVER 2.5.
He averages 1.3 steals per game on the season and 1.5 in away games, with 2.0 steals over the last 5. The line is aggressive, but the recent defensive activity gives the over some support.
His season PRA is 27.0, but the recent form is down and combo props carry extra variance. Given the 16.9 PPG season mean and 4.1 RPG with 6.0 APG, the current scoring/rebounding dip makes the under safer than chasing the full combo over.
Quickley’s season P+A is 22.9, but his last 5 P+A is just 16.6 and the recent trend is down. That puts this line close enough to lean under given the volatility.