AI Model:

Scottie Barnes▲

TOR · PF

PPG

18.6

RPG

7.8

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.0

18.6

15.6

RPG-0.6

7.8

7.2

APG+0.4

5.4

5.8

SPG0.0

1.4

BPG-0.1

1.5

1.4

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 14 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 17 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

72%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

66%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

63%

BLK

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

61%

PRA

UNDER 33.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.4

16.7

RPG

7.0

6.0

APG

5.2

4.6

vs UTA (H2H)9 games

PPG

17.6

RPG

9.3

APG

5.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Pascal Siakam	4	26	48%	-10.2%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	22	65%	+9.8%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	22	35%	-14.9%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	21	75%

Barnes’ volume supports points, but recent dip keeps rebounds and combos in check

Scottie Barnes is still playing a heavy role at 34.1 MPG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 15.6 PPG over the last 5 and 15.8 over the last 10 versus an 18.6 season mark. The biggest supportive angle is matchup context: Utah’s defense has a 124.8 defensive rating, and Toronto is on a back-to-back, which can suppress efficiency and minutes. His defensive playmaking remains strong with 2.8 stocks in the last 5 and 2.91 on the season, but the recent rebound and assist trends are below season level, making higher combo thresholds less attractive.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↓ from 18.6)

RPG

7.2(↓ from 7.8)

APG

5.8(→ from 5.4)

Stocks

2.8(→ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

Utah has a 124.8 defensive rating and a pace of 100, so this is not a soft defensive environment. The data also shows no specific defender matchup data, so the analysis should lean on team-level defensive context rather than individual defender assumptions.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Scottie Barnes▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	20	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%	7	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	PRA	33.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	37	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	30	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5UNDER20%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%+17.8% edgeLine moved +1.0; Value edge shifted +0.081; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB6.5UNDER25%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 6x5/2025%+28.3% edgeConfidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R20.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PRA31.5UNDER29%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x4/2020%+26.3% edgeScorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A22UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

AST6.5OVER1%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Line moved -1.0; Value edge shifted -0.122; Odds moved materially▼

BLK1.5UNDER44%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%+8.3% edgeLine nudged +0.5; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

R+A12UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

STL1.5UNDER6%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 7x12/2060%Confidence moved HIGH to LOW; Line nudged -0.5▼

Featured Pick

Scottie Barnes

Rebounds UNDER 8.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of season baseline and recent form: 7.8 RPG on the year, 5.7 over the last 10, and only 6.0 on back-to-backs. Even though his head-to-head rebound number vs this opponent is strong, the current trend and the back-to-back context make the under the safer side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Lauri Markkanen	1	7	10	43%	43%
Ace Bailey	2	4	7	50%	58%
Jusuf Nurkić	1	2	2	33%	33%
Brice Sensabaugh	2	2	2	33%	33%
Kyle Filipowski	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 18.568%MEDIUM

He is averaging 18.6 PPG on the season, but only 15.6 PPG over the last 5 and 15.8 over the last 10. Toronto is also on a back-to-back, and his b2b scoring mean is 14.08, which points to downside versus an 18.5 line.

reboundsUNDER 8.572%HIGH

Barnes is at 7.8 RPG for the season and 5.7 over the last 10, both below this number. Even with a strong history against this opponent at 9.333 RPG, the recent form is clearly weaker and the current line is a tough ask.

assistsUNDER 5.566%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.4 APG and the last 10 sits at 4.4 APG, below the line. The b2b mean of 3.92 adds another caution flag, while the opponent absence data does not clearly create enough extra assist volume to confidently push over.

threesOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 0.88 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The recent sample supports at least one make, even though the volume is not huge.

blocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.5 blocks, but that is exactly the line and the recent 10-game average is down to 1.1. With standard variance on defensive stats, the under is the cleaner side at this number.

stocksUNDER 361%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 2.91 stocks on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, which is below a 3.0 projection. Defensive production is good, but the recent trend does not justify an over.

praUNDER 33.564%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 31.8 from the provided averages, while the last 10 profile is even lighter at 25.9 using 15.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. Combo props carry extra variance, and this line sits above both his season and recent baseline.

paUNDER 24.563%MEDIUM

Barnes' season points plus assists baseline is 24.0, and his recent scoring has dipped to 15.8 PPG with 4.4 APG over the last 10. That makes a 24.5 threshold slightly inflated relative to his current form.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS