AI Model:

RJ Barrett▼

TOR · SF

PPG

18.9

RPG

5.4

APG

3.2

L5 PPG

20.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

18.9

20.6

RPG-0.6

5.4

4.8

APG-0.4

3.2

2.8

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 20 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 31 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 18 pts

PHX

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs PHX: 13 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5STAKE

64%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

57%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

68%

3PM

OVER 1.5

59%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

78%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

OVER 2

55%

P+R

OVER 18.5STAKE

56%

P+A

OVER 17.5STAKE

53%

R+A

OVER 6.5STAKE

51%

UNDER 0.5

83%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.3

17.7

RPG

6.0

5.1

APG

3.4

2.3

vs UTA (H2H)10 games

PPG

16.2

RPG

5.2

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dyson Daniels	4	18	53%	+4.1%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	11	50%	+0.8%	low
Michael Porter Jr.	2	10	31%	-24.2%	low
P.J. Washington	2	10	70%

RJ Barrett brings a scoring floor, but the back-to-back and road split keep the ceiling in check

RJ Barrett is averaging 18.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 3.2 APG on the season, with his last 5 at 20.6 PPG and 31.6 MPG. The matchup is not a clean defensive stop on paper, but Toronto is on a back-to-back and Barrett's away scoring drops to 17.7 PPG compared with 20.3 at home. His recent logs are volatile, and the season trend is marked down, so projection should lean closer to the season baseline than the hotter short-term run.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.6(↑ from 18.9)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.4)

APG

2.8(↓ from 3.2)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 124.8 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a 1.232 three suppression mark, but no specific defender matchup data. Barrett also has 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 3.4 APG in 10 games vs this opponent, which is below his season scoring average.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
RJ Barrett▼	Points	14.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	27	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	6	✗
RJ Barrett▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	50%	0	✓
RJ Barrett▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
RJ Barrett▼	P+R	18.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	29	✓
RJ Barrett▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	33	✓
RJ Barrett▼	R+A	6.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	8	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS21.5OVER3%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +5.0▼

P+R26OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB5.5UNDER6%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

P+A24OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)11/2055%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5OVER6%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)8/2040%Line nudged +0.5; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

AST3.5OVER6%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x7/2035%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Line nudged +0.5; Scorecard changed +5.0▼

PRA31.5UNDER10%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+11.5% edgeLine moved +2.0; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A8UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

RJ Barrett

Points OVER 14.5MEDIUM

This line is well below Barrett's season average of 18.9 PPG and his home average of 20.3 PPG. Even with Toronto on a back-to-back and Barrett's recent trend marked down, the number is low enough that his baseline scoring profile still offers the best value.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brice Sensabaugh	2	4	2	50%	50%
Ace Bailey	2	4	7	20%	30%
Cody Williams	1	3	2	100%	100%
John Konchar	1	2	2	100%	100%
Elijah Harkless	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 14.564%MEDIUM

He averages 18.9 PPG on the season and 19.45 at home, well above 14.5. The back-to-back is a concern, but the line is low enough that his normal volume still supports the over.

reboundsOVER 4.557%MEDIUM

Barrett is at 5.4 RPG for the season and 5.73 in home games, with 5.3 over his last 10. This is a modest edge, though his recent 5-game average is 4.8 so the margin is not huge.

assistsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.2 APG, but his last 5 is down to 2.8 and his last 10 is 2.2. With a back-to-back and a low recent passing trend, the under is the safer side.

threesOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.72 made threes per game on the season and 1.91 at home, with 1.8 over the last 10. That said, the recent standard deviation is 1.08, so this is only a moderate-confidence over.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season, which is enough volume to consider the over at 0.5. The recent form is lighter at 0.6 over the last 5, so confidence stays modest.

blocksUNDER 0.578%HIGH

His season average is only 0.3 blocks per game, and even the recent 5-game sample at 0.6 is not enough to make the over reliable. Given the low baseline, the under is the clear side.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.09 stocks on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, below a 1.5 threshold. The season standard deviation is 1.02, which makes the over too volatile to trust.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are 2.4 over the last 5 and 2.0 over the last 10, which is right around this line. The back-to-back and usage load support a slight lean to the over.

prOVER 18.556%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is strong enough at 18.9 PPG and 5.4 RPG, but combo props carry extra variance. The edge is thinner because his assists have dipped and recent scoring is not far above baseline.

paOVER 17.553%MEDIUM

Barrett's season points plus assists footprint is 22.1, but recent assists are down while scoring remains solid. Because combo props are volatile, this is only a slight lean over.

raOVER 6.551%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists average is 8.6, but the recent assist dip reduces the cushion. The over is playable, but this is a low-confidence combo because of the variance.

double_doubleUNDER 0.583%HIGH

He is not producing double-double type volume regularly, with season averages of 18.9 points and 5.4 rebounds. This is not a strong two-category double-double profile, so the under is the safer call.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS