AI Model:

Ace Bailey▲

UTA · PF

PPG

12.8

RPG

4.0

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

20.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.0

12.8

20.8

RPG+0.6

4.0

4.6

APG+0.8

1.8

2.6

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+1.0

0.6

1.6

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

17.5

NOP

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs NOP: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 32 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 21 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 17 pts

MIL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIL: 33 pts

PHI

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHI: 25 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 0.9

55%

BLK

OVER 0.6

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

UNDER 2

56%

P+R

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+A

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.1

14.2

RPG

6.0

4.9

APG

2.5

1.8

vs TOR (H2H)1 games

PPG

4.0

RPG

11.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	13	67%	+11.7%	medium
Moses Moody	2	12	69%	+9.9%	low
Rui Hachimura	3	11	56%	+0.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	108%

Ace Bailey’s scoring surge meets a tougher path for the over

Ace Bailey’s form is clearly up, with 20.8 PPG over his last 5 and 18.8 over his last 10 versus a 12.8 season average. That said, his season-long production is still much lower than the recent spike, and his game log shows meaningful volatility with several sub-20 scoring nights. The teammate absence of Isaiah Collier removes 11.7 PPG and 7.2 APG from the rotation, which supports Bailey’s usage, but the best points number in the data still sits above his season baseline. Toronto’s defense data and Bailey’s one-game history versus this opponent do not create a clean scoring path, so the safer angle is to lean under on the inflated points market while respecting the home boost in his splits.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.8(↑ from 12.8)

RPG

4.6(→ from 4.0)

APG

2.6(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

The data lists RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes in key defenders, but their minutes are only 2.4 and 1.2, respectively, so there is no specific defender matchup data that meaningfully changes the projection. Toronto’s defense profile shows a 112.09 defensive rating and -0.546 three suppression, which is not a clean boost to his shooting efficiency.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ace Bailey▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	37	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Ace Bailey▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Steals	0.9	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	0	✗
Ace Bailey▼	Blocks	0.6	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Ace Bailey▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Ace Bailey▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Ace Bailey▼	P+R	23.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	43	✗
Ace Bailey▼	P+A	20.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	40	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5OVER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

3PM2.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%▼

REB5.5UNDER18%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)9/1947%▼

AST2.5UNDER8%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x7/1937%+9.9% edge▼

3PA8UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PRA25.5UNDER19%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)8/1942%▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)7/1937%▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/1942%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%▼

BLK1UNDER20%gbt_blocksAvoid (5/20)6/1932%▼

FTM0.5UNDER23%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

FTA0.5UNDER11%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ace Bailey

Points UNDER 17.5HIGH

This is the strongest value in the dataset, with a 17.7% edge and $34.65 EV per 100 at DraftKings. Bailey’s 12.8 season PPG is far below the 17.5 line, and his recent 20.8 PPG run looks more like an elevated stretch than a stable new baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
RJ Barrett	2	5	12	67%	92%
Gradey Dick	2	4	0	0%	0%
Scottie Barnes	2	4	5	100%	100%
Brandon Ingram	1	3	0	0%	0%
Jonathan Mogbo	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 17.569%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.8 PPG, and the value data shows UNDER 17.5 with a 17.7% edge and $34.65 EV per 100 at DraftKings. The recent surge to 20.8 PPG is strong, but it is well above the season baseline and regression risk is real.

reboundsOVER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.03 RPG on the season and 4.5 over the last 5, with home performance at 6.0 RPG. The rebound line is reachable, and the value data also favors the OVER with a 6.0% edge at DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

Bailey’s season mean is only 1.75 APG and his last 10 is 2.1, still below the 2.5 line. Even with Isaiah Collier out, this remains a modest assist profile relative to the posted number.

threesOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.85 made threes on the season, 3.8 over the last 5, and 2.39 at home. The recent volume is high, but the line is still supported by his season 3PM rate and home split.

stealsOVER 0.955%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 10. This is a thin edge, but his baseline volume makes the over viable.

blocksOVER 0.658%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, with 1.6 over the last 5. The recent shot-blocking uptick supports the over despite normal variance.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.49, but recent production has jumped to 2.4 over the last 10 and 2.6 over the last 5. That recent form makes 1.5 workable, though variance is still notable.

turnoversUNDER 256%MEDIUM

He is at 1.8 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.9 over the last 10, so this sits close to his typical range. A projected 2.0 line is slightly above his season tendency.

prUNDER 23.564%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 16.8, while the last 5 has spiked but remains volatile. The combo line is inflated relative to his season norm, making the under the more conservative call.

paUNDER 20.563%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 14.6, and even with the recent scoring boost, the assist baseline is still low. This line requires sustained scoring that the season sample does not fully support.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS