AI Model:

Kyle Filipowski—

UTA · C

PPG

10.7

RPG

7.0

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

12.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

10.7

12.2

RPG-1.0

7.0

6.0

APG+1.4

2.4

3.8

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

DEN

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs DEN: 19 pts

PHI

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs PHI: 6 pts

WAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs WAS: 20 pts

MIL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIL: 14 pts

GSW

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

NYK

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NYK: 15 pts

POR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs POR: 11 pts

MIN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MIN: 7 pts

MIL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs MIL: 16 pts

PHI

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHI: 12 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

68%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

64%

P+R

UNDER 22.5FANDUEL

58%

PRA

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.9

13.4

RPG

7.4

9.5

APG

3.1

3.4

vs TOR (H2H)3 games

PPG

13.7

RPG

7.0

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Alperen Sengun	4	14	79%	+29.2%	medium
Dwight Powell	3	13	80%	+30.6%	medium
Julius Randle	4	11	50%	+0.6%	medium
Nic Claxton	2	10	29%

Filipowski’s role boost keeps his boards and playmaking in play, but scoring is priced a bit rich

Kyle Filipowski is coming in with solid recent form, averaging 13.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 4.2 APG over his last 10 while playing 26.0 MPG, all above his season rates of 10.7, 7.0, and 2.4. The biggest swing factor is Isaiah Collier being out, which removes 7.2 APG and 11.7 PPG from the rotation and supports Filipowski’s ball-handling and usage. Toronto’s defense numbers are not an obvious scoring-friendly spot, and with Utah at home his scoring profile is still more in the mid-teens than a true ceiling game. The market also shows stronger value on the under side for points and rebound-heavy combos than on the over, especially given his season baseline versus the recent spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.2(↑ from 10.7)

RPG

6.0(↓ from 7.0)

APG

3.8(↑ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s defense profile shows a 112.09 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression of -0.735, with no specific defender matchup data. That makes this more of a neutral-to-slightly-tough environment for an over on points, especially compared with his recent hot stretch.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kyle Filipowski▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	40%	6	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	8	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	4	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	14	✓
Kyle Filipowski▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	18	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5UNDER6%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)8/2040%+8.5% edgeLine moved -1.0; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

REB9.5UNDER5%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+14.0% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

AST3.5OVER2%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%+7.4% edgeScorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA32.5UNDER9%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%+7.4% edgeLine moved +1.0; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+A19.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R24.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5UNDER14%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+8.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A12.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Kyle Filipowski

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

The best available value data points to the under with a 0.07 edge and a 0.579 projected probability on the 13.5 line. His season scoring average is 10.7 PPG, and while recent numbers are higher, that recent surge is enough above baseline to invite regression rather than justify the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	2	6	7	60%	70%
Jamison Battle	2	3	0	0%	0%
Scottie Barnes	2	2	2	100%	100%
Collin Murray-Boyles	2	1	0	0%	0%
Gradey Dick	2	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 13.571%HIGH

Season average is 10.7 PPG versus a 13.5 line, and the provided value data shows the UNDER as the best side with a 0.07 edge and 0.579 projected under probability. His last-10 scoring is higher at 13.9, but that sits above his season level and is a spot to be cautious about regression.

reboundsUNDER 8.562%MEDIUM

He averages 7.0 RPG on the season and 6.96 in the prop metrics, below the 8.5 line. Recent rebounding has improved to 8.9 over the last 10, but the model flags only modest value and the over would be leaning on the hotter stretch.

assistsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

Collier’s absence removes 7.2 APG from the roster, and Filipowski’s recent assist form is strong at 4.2 over the last 10 and 3.8 over the last 5. The season mean is only 2.43, so the over is more role-driven than season-driven.

threesUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 made threes per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, but the 1.5 line still sits above his baseline volume. The value data also shows the under as the better side at multiple books.

stocksOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks are 1.49 and rise to 2.1 over the last 10, with 1.6 over the last 5. That makes 1.5 a fair projected line, and the recent defensive event rate supports a slight over lean.

prUNDER 22.558%MEDIUM

His season P+R profile is 17.66 on the provided means, while the market line is 22.5. Recent form is better, but combo props carry extra variance and the season baseline still points under.

praUNDER 25.557%MEDIUM

Using the season means, his PRA is 15.53, well below 25.5, even though recent usage has improved. This is a volatile combo and the under aligns with the conservative approach on elevated lines.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS