NightlyHoops / 2026-03-25 / WAS vs UTA AI Model: NightlyHoops Board v2-gpt-5.4-mini Gemini Flash v3-gemini-flash-lite v3-gpt-4.1-nano
WAS
Wizards
16-55 | L10: 0-10
@
2026-03-25
Version History 2 versions
v2
Full Run 7:28 PM 13 changes
[Full run] 2 picks flipped (Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly), 2 new props, 3 props removed, 3 new best bets, 3 best bets removed
expand_more v1
Full Run 12:11 PM Initial prediction
ML Game Intelligence HIGH WAS 80 - 81 UTA
Key Factors
* Jazz without Keyonte George (23.6 PPG) - out (Hamstring)* Wizards without Alex Sarr (16.5 PPG) - out (Toe)* Wizards without Kyshawn George (14.7 PPG) - out (Elbow)* Jazz without Isaiah Collier (11.7 PPG) - out (Hamstring)* Wizards without Bilal Coulibaly (11.3 PPG) - questionable ()Key Matchup
Jazz has matchup advantages
UTA Advantages
+ Positional advantages + Better roster depth
Key Defensive Matchups WAS Players
Anthony Gill
John Konchar 2g · 6m +0.0% 50% eFG low
Cody Williams 2g · 3m +0.0% 33% eFG low
Mo Bamba 1g · 2m +0.0% 0% eFG low
Jaden Hardy
Cody Williams 5g · 6m +0.0% 50% eFG medium
Isaiah Collier 2g · 4m +0.0% 0% eFG low
Both teams enter on long losing runs, with Washington on a 16-game skid and Utah having dropped 7 of its last 10 while carrying a 2-game losing streak. The injury picture is a major driver here: Utah is missing Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George, while Washington is without Alex Sarr, Cam Whitmore, Kyshawn George, and Tre Johnson, which should concentrate usage on the remaining rotation pieces. With rest not favoring either side materially, this looks like a volatility game where minutes and role changes matter more than season baselines.
Key Players Prop Picks Player Prop Line Pick Confidence Trend Edge Actual Result Brice Sensabaugh▼
UTA
Points 15.5 draftkings UNDER 56% LOW 30% +14.7% — — Brice Sensabaugh▼
UTA
Assists 2.5 draftkings UNDER 68% MEDIUM 60% +18.0% — — Kyle Filipowski▼
UTA
Rebounds 9.5 stake UNDER 66% MEDIUM 60% 0.0% — — Bub Carrington▼
WAS
Assists 4.5 Proj UNDER 63% MEDIUM 60% 0.0% 3 ✓ Bilal Coulibaly▼
WAS
Points 15.5 draftkings UNDER 73% HIGH 50% +14.5% 11 ✓
Model Comparison 5 models · 28 props compared
Sort: Confidence Consensus Player
Show: All (28) 90%+ (3) 80%+ (14) 70%+ (23) 50%+ (28)
Props Shown
28
28 total on slate
Unanimous
27
Full agreement across submitted picks
Elijah Harkless UTA AST 5.5 2/5 models submitted Best confidence 90%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Ace Bailey UTA PTS 15.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 90%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite
OVER 15.5
Elite confidence
90% v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Cody Williams UTA AST 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 90%
Unanimous OVER Actual 1 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Cody Williams UTA BLK 0.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 88%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 1 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 0.5
Elite confidence
88% v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Elijah Harkless UTA PTS 12.5 2/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
OVER 12.5
Elite confidence
85% v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Leaky Black WAS AST 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous UNDER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash
UNDER 1.5
Elite confidence
85% v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Bez Mbeng UTA AST 4.5 2/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Julian Reese WAS AST 6.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Will Riley WAS PTS 9.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 85%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
John Konchar UTA STL 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 84%
Unanimous OVER Actual 1 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Cody Williams UTA PTS 8.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 82%
Unanimous OVER Actual 24 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Elijah Harkless UTA STL 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 80%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Cody Williams UTA REB 4.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 80%
Unanimous OVER Actual 4 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Bub Carrington WAS AST 4.5 3/5 models submitted Best confidence 80%
2/3 lean OVER Actual 3 · Miss Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 4.5
Solid confidence
63% v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Bub Carrington WAS PTS 10.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 79%
Unanimous OVER Actual 12 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Tristan Vukcevic WAS REB 3.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 78%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Leaky Black WAS REB 4.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 75%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Leaky Black WAS STK 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 75%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Julian Reese WAS REB 10.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 75%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Bilal Coulibaly WAS STL 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 75%
Unanimous OVER Actual 3 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Bilal Coulibaly WAS PTS 15.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 73%
Unanimous UNDER Actual 11 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 15.5
High confidence
73% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Elijah Harkless UTA 3PM 1.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 70%
Unanimous OVER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Leaky Black WAS PTS 8.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 70%
Unanimous UNDER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Brice Sensabaugh UTA AST 2.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 68%
Unanimous UNDER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 2.5
Solid confidence
68% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Oscar Tshiebwe UTA REB 6.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 68%
Unanimous OVER Actual 8 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Kyle Filipowski UTA REB 9.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 66%
Unanimous UNDER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 9.5
Solid confidence
66% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
John Konchar UTA REB 4.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 65%
Unanimous OVER Actual 14 · Hit Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Brice Sensabaugh UTA PTS 15.5 1/5 models submitted Best confidence 56%
Unanimous UNDER Awaiting result Show notes
gpt-5.4-mini
UNDER 15.5
Solid confidence
56% v2-gpt-5.4-mini No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gemini-flash-lite No pick
No published pick for this prop.
v3-gpt-4.1-nano No pick
No published pick for this prop.
Featured Picks Bilal Coulibaly Points UNDER 15.5 HIGH
The line is materially above his 11.3 PPG season average, and the value_props table gives the UNDER a 14.5% edge with +26.53 EV per $100 at DraftKings.
Brice Sensabaugh Assists UNDER 2.5 MEDIUM
He’s only at 1.7 APG for the season and 2.3 APG over the last 10, so 2.5 is a tough ask even with the short-term usage spike. The model assigns an 18.0% edge and +30.79 EV per $100 on the UNDER.
Kyle Filipowski Rebounds UNDER 9.5 MEDIUM
His season mean is 7.0 RPG and his last 5 is 6.2 RPG, making 9.5 a high bar unless he hits a ceiling game. Recent form is not enough to fully support the over given the season baseline.
Parlay of the Game Bilal Coulibaly — Points UNDER 15.5 Leg 1
Brice Sensabaugh — Assists UNDER 2.5 Leg 2
Kyle Filipowski — Rebounds UNDER 9.5 Leg 3
These legs all lean under season-based baselines in a game with high variance and multiple injury-driven role shifts. The combination avoids correlated over exposure to recent hot streaks, which is important given the over-bias warning and the elevated regression risk in this matchup.
Injury & Lineup Notes Utah is without Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George. Washington is without Alex Sarr, Cam Whitmore, Kyshawn George, and Tre Johnson. These absences concentrate usage for both teams and are the main reason recent-role players like Sensabaugh, Coulibaly, Hardy, Carrington, and Gill are the players most impacted.
Player Deep Dives This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.
