Jaden Hardy▲

WAS · SG

PPG

8.7

RPG

1.5

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

12.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.1

8.7

12.8

RPG-0.3

1.5

1.2

APG+0.5

0.9

1.4

SPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 18 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 4 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 10 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 17 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 16 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 13 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 10 pts

NYK

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs NYK: 25 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

OVER 1.5STAKE

55%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

67%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

OVER 1.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.6

13.8

RPG

1.5

2.0

APG

1.1

0.9

vs UTA (H2H)13 games

PPG

8.5

RPG

1.7

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cody Williams	5	6	50%	+7.4%	medium
Jeremiah Fears	4	5	50%	-5.1%	medium
Aaron Holiday	2	5	0%	-42.6%	low
Quentin Grimes	2	5	83%

Hardy’s role is elevated, but the scoring line still looks too high

Jaden Hardy’s recent form is better than his season baseline, with 12.8 PPG over the last 5 and 12.5 PPG over the last 10 compared to 8.7 PPG on the season. His minutes have also jumped from 15.2 MPG season-long to 23.4 MPG over the last 5, which supports a stronger scoring outlook. That said, the market points line of 15.5 is well above both his season average and the projections implied by his data, and his recent spike looks hard to sustain. With multiple teammates out, usage should stay elevated, but the safer angle is still the under on an inflated scoring number.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.8(↑ from 8.7)

RPG

1.2(↓ from 1.5)

APG

1.4(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 125.06 defensive rating, with 2.166 scoring suppression and 1.403 three-point suppression, which is a tougher environment for efficient offense. For defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data that is useful here beyond the listed key defenders' limited minutes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaden Hardy▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	60%	21	✗
Jaden Hardy▼	Rebounds	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Jaden Hardy▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Jaden Hardy▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Jaden Hardy▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✓
Jaden Hardy▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

R+A3UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Jaden Hardy

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: the best value table flags UNDER with a 14.5% edge and strong EV, while his season mean is only 8.7 PPG. Recent production is elevated, but the gap between his baseline and this line is still too wide to chase the over safely.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cody Williams	5	6	4	50%	50%
Isaiah Collier	2	4	2	0%	0%
Walter Clayton Jr.	2	4	4	100%	100%
Keyonte George	3	3	10	100%	125%
Ace Bailey	5	3	8	40%	40%

pointsUNDER 15.578%HIGH

Season mean is 8.7 PPG and even the last 10 is only 12.5, so 15.5 is a clear step above his baseline. The value data also shows the UNDER as best side with a 14.5% edge.

reboundsOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 RPG on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so this is essentially right on his normal range. The line is low enough that a modest minutes bump keeps the over live.

assistsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

Hardy’s season mean is 0.9 APG and his last 20 is 1.0, both below the 1.5 line. Even with recent minutes up, his assist production remains modest.

threesUNDER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.68 made threes per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 5, but the recent surge sits above his long-run level. The value table also shows no positive edge on the over.

turnoversOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He has 1.8 TO per game over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10, which is above a 1.5 line. Increased on-ball reps alongside a higher-minute role supports the over.

paUNDER 10.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is still driven mostly by scoring, but the assist floor is low at 0.9 APG. At this number, the projection leans below unless the scoring spikes again.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS