Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Williams | 5 | 6 | 50% | +7.4% | medium |
| Jeremiah Fears | 4 | 5 | 50% | -5.1% | medium |
| Aaron Holiday | 2 | 5 | 0% | -42.6% | low |
| Quentin Grimes | 2 | 5 | 83% |
Jaden Hardy’s recent form is better than his season baseline, with 12.8 PPG over the last 5 and 12.5 PPG over the last 10 compared to 8.7 PPG on the season. His minutes have also jumped from 15.2 MPG season-long to 23.4 MPG over the last 5, which supports a stronger scoring outlook. That said, the market points line of 15.5 is well above both his season average and the projections implied by his data, and his recent spike looks hard to sustain. With multiple teammates out, usage should stay elevated, but the safer angle is still the under on an inflated scoring number.
The opponent defense data shows a 125.06 defensive rating, with 2.166 scoring suppression and 1.403 three-point suppression, which is a tougher environment for efficient offense. For defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data that is useful here beyond the listed key defenders' limited minutes.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaden Hardy▼ | Points | 15.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 21 | ✗ |
Jaden Hardy▼ | Rebounds | 1.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 2 | ✓ |
Jaden Hardy▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Jaden Hardy▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 5 | ✗ |
Jaden Hardy▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 3 | ✓ |
Jaden Hardy▼ | P+A | 10.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 20% | 21 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest edge in the data: the best value table flags UNDER with a 14.5% edge and strong EV, while his season mean is only 8.7 PPG. Recent production is elevated, but the gap between his baseline and this line is still too wide to chase the over safely.
| low |
| Jordan Clarkson | 2 | 4 | 67% | +24.1% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Williams | 5 | 6 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Isaiah Collier | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 2 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Keyonte George | 3 | 3 | 10 | 100% | 125% |
| Ace Bailey | 5 | 3 | 8 | 40% | 40% |
Season mean is 8.7 PPG and even the last 10 is only 12.5, so 15.5 is a clear step above his baseline. The value data also shows the UNDER as best side with a 14.5% edge.
He averages 1.5 RPG on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so this is essentially right on his normal range. The line is low enough that a modest minutes bump keeps the over live.
Hardy’s season mean is 0.9 APG and his last 20 is 1.0, both below the 1.5 line. Even with recent minutes up, his assist production remains modest.
He averages 1.68 made threes per game on the season and 2.3 over the last 5, but the recent surge sits above his long-run level. The value table also shows no positive edge on the over.
He has 1.8 TO per game over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10, which is above a 1.5 line. Increased on-ball reps alongside a higher-minute role supports the over.
His season points plus assists profile is still driven mostly by scoring, but the assist floor is low at 0.9 APG. At this number, the projection leans below unless the scoring spikes again.