AI Model:

Bub Carrington—

WAS · PG

PPG

10.1

RPG

3.6

APG

4.6

L5 PPG

15.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.3

10.1

15.4

RPG-0.8

3.6

2.8

APG-1.0

4.6

3.6

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 7 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 9 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 12 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 4 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 30 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs OKC: 19 pts

NYK

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs NYK: 14 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5STAKE

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

55%

OVER 2

56%

P+R

UNDER 13.5STAKE

61%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

59%

R+A

UNDER 7.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.9

8.1

RPG

3.3

4.1

APG

3.5

5.8

vs UTA (H2H)3 games

PPG

8.3

RPG

3.7

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	4	15	72%	+19.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	14	71%	+22.2%	low
Reed Sheppard	2	11	93%	+29.3%	low
T.J. McConnell	3	10	100%

Carrington’s usage is elevated, but the scoring line is still playable on the under

Bub Carrington is averaging 10.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 4.6 APG on the season, and his recent scoring has jumped to 15.4 PPG over the last 5 with 30.2 MPG. That said, his last 20 still sits near his season level at 10.2 PPG, which suggests the recent spike is likely inflated relative to baseline. Washington’s injury absences should keep his role intact, but the matchup data does not clearly support a huge scoring ceiling, so his stronger case is in steady all-around volume rather than a big points outlier.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.4(↑ from 10.1)

APG

3.6(↓ from 4.6)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 3.6)

Key Matchup

The opponent profile shows a 125.06 defensive rating with a 100 pace and no specific defender matchup data. Utah’s scoring suppression and three-point suppression are listed at 2.166 and 1.403, but the bigger fantasy angle here is Washington’s injury-driven usage rather than a named on-ball stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Bub Carrington▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		12	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		2	✓
Bub Carrington▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		3	✗
Bub Carrington▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		2	✓
Bub Carrington▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%		0	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%		0	✗
Bub Carrington▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	—	14	✗
Bub Carrington▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		15	✗
Bub Carrington▼	R+A	7.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		5	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A16UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R14.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A7OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Bub Carrington

Points UNDER 10.5MEDIUM

His season average is 10.1 PPG and his last 20 is 10.2, both clustering right around the 10.5 line. The recent 15.4 PPG surge is well above his baseline, so regression risk is real, especially since his away scoring is only 8.1 PPG and he has 8.333333333333334 PPG in 3 games vs this opponent.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Elijah Harkless	2	4	0	0%	0%
Ace Bailey	2	3	2	50%	50%
Cody Williams	2	3	2	33%	33%
John Konchar	2	2	2	100%	100%
Kennedy Chandler	1	1	1	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.1 PPG and his last 20 is 10.2, which is much closer to the 10.5 line than the hot last-5 sample. With scoring at 8.1 PPG away and 8.333333333333334 PPG in 3 games vs this opponent, the under is the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 RPG on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, with an away mean of 4.1 but only 3.6666666666666665 RPG in 3 games vs this opponent. This is a tight line, but the season and recent averages do not strongly justify an over.

assistsOVER 3.560%MEDIUM

Carrington’s season mean is 4.59 APG and his last 10 is 4.3 APG, both above the 3.5 line. With key teammate absences on Washington, his ball-handling role should remain elevated even though the recent 5-game assist rate dipped to 3.6.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.93 threes per game on the season and 1.6 in the last 5, with 2.0 at home. The variance is meaningful, but the baseline volume is comfortably above 1.5.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

His season average of 0.6 SPG sits just above the 0.5 mark, and he is at 0.7 over the last 20. This is low-confidence because the margin is thin and his recent 5-game rate is only 0.4.

turnoversOVER 256%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 1.9 over the last 20, which makes a 2.0 line live. With a bigger creation burden from teammate absences, turnover risk stays relevant.

prUNDER 13.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds sit at 13.7 using 10.1 PPG and 3.6 RPG, but the recent scoring spike is not matched by rebounds. Combo props have higher variance, so the slight edge is to the under.

paUNDER 14.559%MEDIUM

Using season averages, 10.1 PPG plus 4.6 APG equals 14.7, but his last 10 points and assists sum to 16.2 while his last 5 is 19.0 and likely regresses. This line is close, but the overall profile makes the under the more conservative choice.

raUNDER 7.563%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists total 8.2, but the recent 10-game mark is 7.3 and the last 5 is 6.4. That recent drop puts the under in a better spot than the season average alone would suggest.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS