Chet Holmgren v2 Props — Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers

AI Model:

Chet Holmgren

OKC ·

PPG

17.3

RPG

8.9

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

19.6

Last 10 GamesREB

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.3

17.3

19.6

RPG+0.9

8.9

9.8

APG+0.4

1.6

2.0

SPG+0.9

0.7

1.6

BPG-0.3

1.9

1.6

UNDER 9.5 REB

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

UTA

2026-04-05

2026-04-05 vs UTA: 7 reb

LAL

2026-04-07

2026-04-07 vs LAL: 10 reb

LAC

2026-04-08

2026-04-08 vs LAC: 14 reb

PHX

2026-04-19

2026-04-19 vs PHX: 7 reb

PHX

2026-04-22

2026-04-22 vs PHX: 8 reb

PHX

2026-04-25

2026-04-25 vs PHX: 7 reb

PHX

2026-04-27

2026-04-27 vs PHX: 12 reb

LAL

2026-05-05

2026-05-05 vs LAL: 12 reb

LAL

2026-05-07

2026-05-07 vs LAL: 9 reb

LAL

2026-05-09

2026-05-09 vs LAL: 9 reb

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

REB

UNDER 9.5

80%

3PM

OVER 1.5

75%

PTS

UNDER 17.5

55%

AST

OVER 1.5

70%

P+R

UNDER 27.5

70%

BLK

UNDER 1.5

80%

P+A

UNDER 19.5

65%

STL

OVER 1.5

70%

PRA

UNDER 28.5

70%

R+A

UNDER 10.5

80%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.4

19.4

RPG

8.6

10.4

APG

1.0

2.2

vs LAL (H2H)13 games

PPG

15.0

RPG

7.2

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rui Hachimura	7	34	83%	+7.1%	medium
Dillon Brooks	8	22	55%	-7.3%	medium
Oso Ighodaro	8	19	60%	+3.8%	medium
Mark Williams	4	18	45%

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Chet Holmgren▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	60%	9	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	75%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	16	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	40%	0	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	P+R	27.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	25	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	20%	0	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	16	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	50%	1	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	PRA	28.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	25	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	60%	9	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST1.5UNDER0%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%+16.2% edge▼

PRA29.5UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%+9.4% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A20.5UNDER70%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

PTS18.5UNDER33%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

BLK1.5UNDER21%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

R+A11.5UNDER70%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%▼

P+R27.5UNDER70%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

REB9.5UNDER29%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%+12.9% edge▼

STL1.5UNDER45%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER25%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Rui Hachimura	7	34	52	63%	83%
Deandre Ayton	8	14	6	20%	20%
Jaxson Hayes	5	7	12	75%	75%
Jake LaRavia	6	5	3	20%	30%
Austin Reaves	7	5	14	33%	33%

reboundsUNDER 9.580%HIGH

Without Jalen Williams, 9.8 RPG in 5 games, but line at 9.5 and value edge UNDER 7%

threesOVER 1.575%HIGH

Playoff avg 1.7, last 10 avg 2.0, Lakers allow high 3PA, edge OVER 6%

pointsUNDER 17.555%MEDIUM

Season avg 17.3 close to line, H2H avg 15 lower, blowout risk caps minutes

assistsOVER 1.570%HIGH

Without Jalen Williams, 2.0 APG in 5 games, low volume but edge slight

prUNDER 27.570%HIGH

Points+Rebounds combo: season avg 26.2, H2H avg 22.2, under despite without boost

blocksUNDER 1.580%HIGH

Blocks UNDER historically hit 71.4%, 1.6 BPG last 5 but line at 1.5

paUNDER 19.565%MEDIUM

Points+Assists: season avg 18.8, H2H avg 16.3, lower than line

stealsOVER 1.570%HIGH

Steals OVER strong historically, 1.6 SPG last 5, H2H inconsistent but recent high

praUNDER 28.570%HIGH

PRA season avg 27.8, H2H avg 23.5, under despite without Jalen Williams boost

raUNDER 10.580%HIGH

Rebounds+Assists: season avg 10.5, H2H avg 8.5, under value with edge

timelineUNDER 9.5 REB

Defensive Matchup Profile

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

UNDER 9.5 REB