sports_basketball

Nightly Hoops

PredictionsLineupsOddsModelsRecapsPlayers
search
sports_basketballNightly Hoops
PredictionsRecapsPlayers
Privacy PolicyTerms of ServiceContact© 2025 Nightly Hoops AI.
NightlyHoops/Predictions/2026-05-11
chevron_leftSun, May 10
Mon, May 11
Tue, May 12chevron_right
NBA Slate

Monday, May 11, 2026

2 games · 15 tracked props · 190 graded picks

Slate Result
52%
99-91
Board View
NightlyHoops Board

The NightlyHoops board is the clean default. Alternative sources can be useful, but some will miss games or publish thinner slates.

Compare model accuracy →
Default Board
Compare alternative source boards
Slate Read

v2 multi-agent analysis: 2 games with Team + Matchup + Player agents.

Game Board

Each matchup card shows the strongest props for that game first. Open a card for the full preview.

DET@CLE
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Tobias Harris
Points 18.5
UNDER85%Hit
James Harden
Points 18.5
OVER80%Hit
James Harden
Assists 6.5
OVER75%
Full Prop Board

Use this when you want the entire slate in one sortable table.

15 picks
Filter:
PlayerPropLinePickConfidenceTrendEdgeActualResult
Tobias Harris▼
DET
Points18.5unknownUNDER85%HIGH—+13.3%16✓
James Harden▼
CLE
Points18.5unknownOVER80%HIGH—+10.8%24✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼
OKC
Threes Over 1.51.5Player AgentOVER80%HIGH—+15.2%——
Chet Holmgren▼
OKC
Rebounds Under 9.59.5Player AgentUNDER80%HIGH—+7.4%——
James Harden▼
CLE
Assists6.5unknownOVER75%HIGH—+10.5%11✓
Evan Mobley▼
CLE
Points15.5unknownOVER75%HIGH40%+13.0%17✓
Donovan Mitchell▼
CLE
3PM2.5unknownOVER75%HIGH50%+7.8%4✓
Ajay Mitchell▼
OKC
Points Over 16.516.5Player AgentOVER75%HIGH—+22.7%——
Duncan Robinson▼
DET
3PM2.5unknownOVER70%MEDIUM80%+5.3%1✗
LeBron James▼
LAL
Rebounds Under 6.56.5Player AgentUNDER70%HIGH—+4.0%——
Austin Reaves▼
LAL
Assists Under 6.56.5Player AgentUNDER70%HIGH—+7.2%——
Isaiah Hartenstein▼
OKC
Points Over 8.58.5Player AgentOVER70%HIGH—+6.4%——
Marcus Smart▼
LAL
Assists Over 3.53.5Player AgentOVER70%HIGH—+5.7%——
Ausar Thompson▼
DET
Assists2.5unknownOVER65%MEDIUM60%+4.6%1✗
Jalen Duren▼
DET
Points13.5unknownOVER65%MEDIUM10%+10.0%8✗

Results & Analysis

52.1%99/190 picks hit
23 close calls
HIGH52%
52/101
MEDIUM53%
47/89
OVER40%
32/80
UNDER61%
67/110

Why Picks Missed

Close Calls (23)Narrowly missed (scaled by prop type)

+2.5Tobias HarrisPRAUNDER 26.5→29
+1.5Tobias HarrisReboundsUNDER 6.5→8
-1.5Duncan RobinsonAssistsOVER 2.5→1
-2.5Isaiah HartensteinP+ROVER 17.5→15
-1.5Isaiah HartensteinP+AOVER 11.5→10

Biggest Misses (15)Way off (scaled by prop type)

+15.5Donovan MitchellPointsUNDER 27.5 → 43

Mitchell had a major scoring outburst, going well above both his season and playoff averages, taking over offensively in a close game where he played heavy minutes and dominated usage.

-13.5Cade CunninghamPRAOVER 41.5 → 28

Cunningham struggled with efficiency (shooting and turnovers), and the game flow limited his assists and rebounds; failed to reach normal production in any individual stat.

+11.5Rui HachimuraP+RUNDER 18.5 → 30

Hachimura played increased minutes due to a tighter rotation and had a hot shooting night, well above his usual volume and efficiency.

+11.5Rui HachimuraPRAUNDER 20.5 → 32

Increased offensive involvement and minutes boosted Hachimura’s scoring and rebounding, and he unexpectedly chipped in some assists as well.

+11.5Rui HachimuraP+AUNDER 15.5 → 27

Exceptional scoring output carried Hachimura's points+assists far above his projection as he was a featured offensive option tonight.

-11.5Cade CunninghamP+AOVER 36.5 → 25

Cunningham's shooting was off and Detroit's offense stagnated, leading to low points and few assist opportunities against tight defensive pressure.

-10.5Duncan RobinsonPRAOVER 16.5 → 6

Robinson saw limited minutes due to defensive mismatches and foul trouble, and struggled from beyond the arc, sharply reducing all counting stats.

+10.5Rui HachimuraPointsUNDER 14.5 → 25

Hachimura got more minutes and shot attempts in a competitive game, capitalizing on a favorable matchup instead of being limited by blowout risk as projected.

Lessons for Tomorrow

  • -Scale back blowout risk assumptions in potential pivotal or close playoff games—stars often play their full minutes regardless.
  • -Model rare event props (blocks/steals) with wider error bands and more frequent occurrence of rare outcomes.
  • -Incorporate updated matchup/role data, especially for defense and secondary ball-handlers.
  • -Account for defensive stat volatility (blocks/steals) with player-specific event risk, especially for elite defenders in playoff games.
  • -Simulate more scenarios where projected minutes are cut due to fouls or late gameflow, particularly for starters.
  • -Increase caution on high-variance shooters and apply wider error bands, especially when their role may shrink due to defensive matchups.
  • -Factor teammates’ current shot-making variance explicitly in assist projections.
  • -Prioritize recent playoff minute and usage adjustments over regular season baselines when playoff rotations shorten.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.
Hit
Evan Mobley
Points 15.5
OVER75%Hit
Donovan Mitchell
3PM 2.5
OVER75%Hit
Duncan Robinson
3PM 2.5
OVER70%Miss
8 picks on this matchupShow More →
OKC@LAL
Board Readyscheduled

Open this matchup to read the full game preview and reasoning.

Top Props
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Threes Over 1.5 1.5
OVER80%
Chet Holmgren
Rebounds Under 9.5 9.5
UNDER80%
Ajay Mitchell
Points Over 16.5 16.5
OVER75%
LeBron James
Rebounds Under 6.5 6.5
UNDER70%
Austin Reaves
Assists Under 6.5 6.5
UNDER70%
Isaiah Hartenstein
Points Over 8.5 8.5
OVER70%
7 picks on this matchupShow More →