AI Model:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—

OKC · PG

PPG

31.5

RPG

4.5

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

28.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.1

31.5

28.4

RPG-0.7

4.5

3.8

APG-0.6

6.6

6.0

SPG+0.8

1.4

2.2

BPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

OVER 29.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

29.5

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 30 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 26 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 27 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 35 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 35 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 20 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 40 pts

BKN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BKN: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs WAS: 40 pts

PHI

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs PHI: 22 pts

Over 29.5

Under 29.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 29.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

OVER 6.5BETMGM

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL

OVER 1.5

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

56%

OVER 2.5

53%

P+R

OVER 36.5STAKE

54%

P+A

OVER 37.5STAKE

52%

R+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

59%

UNDER 0.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

30.3

31.9

RPG

4.9

4.2

APG

7.9

6.5

vs BOS (H2H)7 games

PPG

31.4

RPG

5.1

APG

7.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	4	19	35%	-25.2%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	15	57%	-8.5%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	14	60%	-15.2%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	12	35%

Shai’s scoring stays elite, but Boston’s matchup keeps the edge tight

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in strong form overall, averaging 31.5 PPG, 6.6 APG, and 4.5 RPG on the season, with his last 20 still at 31.2 PPG and 7.1 APG. His recent scoring has dipped to 28.4 PPG over the last 5, which is below his season baseline, so the market is pricing him near his true range rather than chasing the hot hand. Against Boston, he has produced 31.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 7.0 APG across 7 games, but the Celtics’ opponent defense context suggests some scoring suppression. The best edges on the board are modest, so this profiles more as a selective prop card than an aggressive over spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

28.4(↓ from 31.5)

APG

6.0(↓ from 6.6)

RPG

3.8(↓ from 4.5)

Stocks

2.8(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Boston’s defense context shows a 106.96 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -1.903, which points to a tougher scoring environment than his season baseline. There is no specific defender matchup data for a single primary stopper; the listed key defenders are Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, and Baylor Scheierman with the provided minutes and points allowed figures.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Points	29.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	33	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	2	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		8	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		3	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		2	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	FLIP	2	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	—	70%		2	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	P+R	36.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		35	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	P+A	37.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	40%		41	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	—	10	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

AST6.5OVER17%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+13.5% edge▼

PRA41.5OVER3%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.087; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R34.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

P+A37UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS30.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+5.1% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%+7.2% edge▼

R+A11.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

REB3.5UNDER5%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x12/2060%▼

STL1.5UNDER5%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Points OVER 29.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value on the board with a 7.1% edge, and it still sits below his 31.5 season scoring average. The caution is that his last 5 have fallen to 28.4 PPG and Boston’s context suggests some suppression, so this is solid but not a heavy-confidence over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Baylor Scheierman	2	9	9	60%	90%
Hugo González	2	7	7	43%	50%
Derrick White	1	6	0	0%	0%
Sam Hauser	2	3	0	0%	0%
Jaylen Brown	2	2	15	75%	75%

pointsOVER 29.558%MEDIUM

Season scoring is 31.5 PPG and the value model shows a 7.1% edge with our_prob_over at 0.578. His last 20 is still 31.2 PPG, and he has 31.4 PPG in 7 games vs Boston.

reboundsUNDER 4.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 4.45 rebounds and his away mean is only 3.93, which is below this line. Recent rebounds have been 3.8 over the last 5, and the under is the more conservative side with the statistical profile.

assistsOVER 6.555%MEDIUM

He averages 6.6 assists on the season and 7.2 over the last 10, with 7.0 APG in 7 games vs Boston. The edge is smaller than the scoring prop, but the assist trend stays slightly favorable.

threesOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.7 made threes per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, with multiple books showing a positive edge on the over. His recent 1.4 fg3mpg is close to the line, but the season average supports the over.

stealsOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, so the recent defensive activity is elevated. This is still a higher-variance stat, so confidence stays moderate.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, which supports clearing a 0.5 line. The recent game log also shows block upside, including a 2-block game on 2026-03-23.

stocksUNDER 2.556%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 2.23 and the line would sit above his typical output. Even though the last 5 are 2.8, the season baseline and normal variance make the under the safer side.

turnoversOVER 2.553%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate sits at 2.4 over the last 5 and 2.6 over the last 10, which is above a projected 2.5 line. This is a volatile category, so the confidence remains low-to-moderate.

prOVER 36.554%MEDIUM

He averages 31.5 points and 4.5 rebounds, and his season-level PRA base supports a mid-30s projection. Because combo props add variance, this is a thinner play than points alone.

paOVER 37.552%MEDIUM

His season mean for points plus assists is 38.1, and his last 10 average is even stronger at 36.7 combined before considering the line. The margin is slim, so this stays a lower-confidence combo play.

raUNDER 10.559%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists is 11.1, but the posted line is above that baseline and the recent rebound dip matters. Combo variance is high, so the under is the more conservative lean.

double_doubleUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

He has strong 2-category production, but his usual combination of 31.5 PPG with 6.6 APG and 4.5 RPG does not point to a frequent double-double. The rebound base is the main limiter.

timelineOVER 29.5 PTS