AI Model:

Neemias Queta▼

BOS · C

PPG

9.8

RPG

8.3

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

9.8

10.6

RPG-0.1

8.3

8.2

APG+1.3

1.5

2.8

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG-0.7

1.3

0.6

OVER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 16 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 4 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 5 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 24 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 5 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 8 pts

MEM

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MEM: 12 pts

MIN

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs MIN: 4 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

REB

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

AST

OVER 1.5

52%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

UNDER 1

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

57%

OVER 1

51%

PRA

UNDER 19.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 11.5

60%

OVER 0.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.8

8.7

RPG

8.0

10.0

APG

1.7

1.2

vs OKC (H2H)1 games

PPG

4.0

RPG

10.0

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nic Claxton	3	19	43%	-21.9%	medium
Jalen Duren	3	19	50%	-14.8%	medium
Bam Adebayo	4	16	54%	-18.6%	medium
Andre Drummond	4	15	86%

Queta’s rebound floor is solid, but the scoring outlook is muted

Neemias Queta is producing 9.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 1.5 APG on the season while logging 25.1 MPG, with his last 20 games staying very close to that baseline at 9.3 PPG and 8.9 RPG. His last 5 show a small scoring bump to 10.6 PPG and more playmaking at 2.8 APG, but the broader trend is down and the last-10 scoring average has dipped to 8.4 PPG. Against Oklahoma City he has one prior meeting with 4 points and 10 rebounds in 27 minutes, which fits a low-scoring, board-heavy profile. Given the spread of outcomes and only modest recent scoring, rebounds look steadier than points.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↑ from 9.8)

RPG

8.2(→ from 8.3)

APG

2.8(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the only prior head-to-head sample shows 4 points and 10 rebounds in 27 minutes. Oklahoma City’s scoring suppression is -1.788, which slightly tempers the scoring outlook while leaving rebounding chances intact.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Neemias Queta▼	Points	8.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	FLIP	13	✓
Neemias Queta▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	5	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		2	✓
Neemias Queta▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	—	0	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Blocks	1	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	—	2	✗
Neemias Queta▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%		2	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	51%MEDIUM	—	30%	—	0	✗
Neemias Queta▼	PRA	19.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	—	20	✗
Neemias Queta▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	—	15	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.079▼

REB7.5UNDER17%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)12/2060%▼

PRA19.5OVER34%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 6x11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

BLK1.5UNDER40%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A10.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Neemias Queta

Points OVER 8.5MEDIUM

This is the best value on the board from the provided data, with a 6.1% edge at betRivers and another positive edge at other books. The season mark is 9.8 PPG and his last 5 are 10.6, but the last-10 at 8.4 keeps the play from being a high-confidence over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Alex Caruso	2	6	9	33%	39%
Isaiah Hartenstein	1	5	4	50%	50%
Chet Holmgren	2	3	2	25%	25%
Luguentz Dort	2	2	0	0%	0%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	2	11	80%	100%

pointsOVER 8.556%MEDIUM

Season average is 9.8 PPG and value data shows the best available edge at 8.5 points with a 6.1% edge at betRivers. The last 5 are higher at 10.6, but the last-10 is only 8.4, so this is playable but not strong.

reboundsOVER 8.555%MEDIUM

He averages 8.3 RPG on the season and 8.9 over the last 20, with 10 rebounds in his only game vs Oklahoma City. However, the edge is only 0.1% at DraftKings, so this is a thin lean rather than a strong bet.

assistsOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.52 APG and his last 5 are 2.8 APG, but the last-10 is just 1.6 and away mean is 1.24. The role supports a modest over lean, though the variance is high with a 1.45 season standard deviation.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, which supports a low line over. His defensive activity is real, but the volatility keeps confidence moderate.

blocksUNDER 158%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 1.3 BPG, but last 5 falls to 0.6 and last 10 is 0.8, signaling regression from his season level. With the recent trend down, the under is safer at a 1.0 line.

stocksUNDER 257%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 2.1, but the last 5 drop to 1.6 and last 10 to 1.5, which is below a 2.0 threshold. That recent decline makes the under the more conservative side.

turnoversOVER 151%MEDIUM

He is at 1.1 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.3 at home, so a 1.0 line is reachable. The profile is not clean enough for high confidence, but the volume supports a slight over lean.

praUNDER 19.561%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 19.6 PRA, but combo props have lower hit rates and his recent scoring has been inconsistent. With only a 4-point outing in the prior OKC matchup, the under is the better lean.

paUNDER 11.560%MEDIUM

Points plus assists total 11.3 on season averages, and the last-10 scoring has dipped to 8.4 PPG with 1.6 APG. The recent blend points slightly below this number, making the under the safer side.

double_doubleOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He has clear double-double potential with 8.3 RPG and 9.8 PPG, and his recent logs include multiple 10-rebound games. This is still a volatile prop, but the role keeps him in range.

timelineOVER 8.5 PTS