AI Model:

Wendell Carter Jr.—

ORL · C

PPG

12.0

RPG

7.6

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.6

12.0

14.6

RPG-1.6

7.6

6.0

APG-0.1

2.1

2.0

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 15 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 11 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 19 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 15 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 17 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAL: 13 pts

IND

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs IND: 17 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

54%

3PM

UNDER 1

61%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

59%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

OVER 1.5

55%

PRA

UNDER 22.5

58%

P+A

OVER 14.5STAKE

56%

P+R

UNDER 19.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.9

11.9

RPG

8.0

8.2

APG

2.1

vs CLE (H2H)13 games

PPG

11.8

RPG

8.7

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bam Adebayo	5	42	46%	-7.1%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	24	83%	+23.2%	medium
Jalen Duren	4	22	42%	-10.1%	medium
Evan Mobley	4	19	47%

WCJ has a solid rebound spot with extra usage around him

Wendell Carter Jr. comes in with a season line of 12.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists across 29.8 MPG, while his last 10 show a small scoring uptick to 13.7 PPG and 1.6 stocks. The biggest swing factor is Orlando’s injury situation: Anthony Black, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs are all out, which should keep Carter involved offensively and on the glass. Cleveland’s defense profile is not an easy environment, but the opponent is missing Jarrett Allen, which can help Carter’s rebound chances. Overall, his scoring projection is modestly above season average, while rebounds and combo props remain more conservative because of the game environment and his steady-to-average recent volume.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(↑ from 12.0)

RPG

6.0(↓ from 7.6)

APG

2.0(→ from 2.1)

Stocks

0.8(↓ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Cleveland is the home team and the opponent defense data shows a 114.69 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which can limit possession volume. The available defender data lists Evan Mobley with 20.3 minutes and 20 points allowed, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond that, so the main edge comes from Jarrett Allen being out on the opponent side.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Points	12.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	15	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	5	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		2	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	3PM	1	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%		2	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		1	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	1	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	FLIP	2	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	FLIP	0	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	PRA	22.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	—	22	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	FLIP	17	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	30%		20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA21.5UNDER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

AST2UNDER51%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

3PA2UNDER41%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6OVER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTA4UNDER5%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Wendell Carter Jr.

Points OVER 12.5MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 12.0 and his last 10 rises to 13.7, with recent games showing multiple 13+ point outings and a 17-point performance on 2026-03-23. Orlando’s injury absences should keep Carter’s usage intact, and Jarrett Allen being out improves the interior path enough to make the over the best single prop lean.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Evan Mobley	4	19	21	47%	47%
Jarrett Allen	2	12	9	80%	80%
James Harden	2	4	8	50%	67%
Donovan Mitchell	4	4	27	65%	71%
Dean Wade	4	2	2	0%	0%

pointsOVER 12.558%MEDIUM

Season mean is 12.0 and last 10 is 13.7, so 12.5 is playable, especially with Anthony Black, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs out. The caution is Cleveland’s scoring suppression profile and the modest overall variance, so this is only a slight lean.

reboundsOVER 7.556%MEDIUM

He averages 7.6 rebounds on the season and 8.1 over the last 20, with 7.38 away and 8.0 at home-type production overall. Jarrett Allen being out helps the board outlook, but the recent last-5 rebound dip to 6.0 keeps confidence moderate.

assistsOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

Carter’s season mean is 2.09 assists and his recent mean is 2.3, well above the 1.5 line. The spread is low enough to support the over, but this remains a lower-ceiling stat than points or rebounds.

threesUNDER 161%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 1.0 made threes per game on the season, but the recent mean is only 0.8 and his last-20 is 0.5 fg3m per game. With that downward recent trend, the under is the safer side.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 steals and the last 10 is 1.0, so he clears 0.5 often enough to justify a lean over. The edge is not huge, but his defensive activity has been stable.

blocksUNDER 0.559%MEDIUM

Carter averages 0.6 blocks on the season, but his last 5 is 0.0 and last 10 is 0.6, showing inconsistent upside. At a 0.5 line, the under is slightly safer in a lower-variance approach.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

Season stocks average is 1.44 and last 20 is 1.4, so 1.5 is right on the margin. Because the recent last-5 has fallen to 0.8, the under has a slight lean.

turnoversOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His recent turnover profile sits at 1.1 over the last 10 and 1.3 over the last 20, but the season context and increased offensive involvement from teammate absences keep this close. This is a mild over only if the line is set low.

praUNDER 22.558%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his baseline projection is 12.0 + 7.6 + 2.1 = 21.7, which is below a 22.5 line. The recent scoring bump helps, but the conservative season-weighted projection still favors the under.

paOVER 14.556%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 14.1 and the last 10 is 16.0, while teammate absences increase the chance he handles more offense. The line is close, but the recent form gives the over a small lean.

prUNDER 19.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds baseline is 19.6, so this is extremely close to fair and not a strong over spot. Given the better under hit rate guideline and the game environment, the under is slightly preferred.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS