AI Model:

Sam Merrill▲

CLE · SF

PPG

12.8

RPG

2.6

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

12.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.8

12.8

12.0

RPG+2.2

2.6

4.8

APG+0.5

2.3

2.8

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

MIL

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MIL: 14 pts

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 9 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 2 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 13 pts

NOP

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs NOP: 15 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

57%

3PM

UNDER 3

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

OVER 0.7

55%

P+R

UNDER 16.5STAKE

56%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.5

13.6

RPG

2.8

2.9

APG

2.7

1.9

vs ORL (H2H)10 games

PPG

7.9

RPG

2.1

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	4	20	100%	+20.8%	medium
Duncan Robinson	3	12	64%	+8.6%	medium
Trey Murphy III	2	8	50%	-5.9%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	8	44%

Usage boost meets tough Orlando perimeter suppression

Sam Merrill is trending up, with his last 10 showing 12.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 2.7 APG over 29.5 MPG, but his season scoring baseline is still 12.8 PPG on 26.2 MPG. The absences on Cleveland’s side create extra opportunity, while Orlando’s short-handed roster also keeps this from being a pure pace drag. That said, the matchup data points to caution on scoring volume because Orlando carries a -1.013 three suppression mark, and Merrill has historically been just 7.9 PPG in 10 games vs this opponent. His strongest angle is staying active across peripherals, but the safest projection is closer to his season average than a big ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.0(→ from 12.8)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 2.6)

APG

2.8(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so the main angle is team context: Orlando’s -1.013 three suppression is a headwind for Merrill’s scoring profile. The game also comes against a defense with a 114.34 rating and pace of 100, which does not clearly favor a big efficiency spike.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Sam Merrill▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%		19	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	4	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		1	✓
Sam Merrill▼	3PM	3	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3→3.5	2	✓
Sam Merrill▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%		2	✓
Sam Merrill▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%		0	✓
Sam Merrill▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%		2	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Turnovers	0.7	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%		0	✗
Sam Merrill▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	23	✗
Sam Merrill▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	15→15.5	20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS13UNDER27%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A14.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

REB3UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST2OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PRA17.5UNDER27%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A5.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

3PA7UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER19%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM0.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

FTA1UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Sam Merrill

Points UNDER 11.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest numbers-based angle because his season scoring average is 12.82, but his 10-game history vs Orlando is only 7.9 PPG across 18 MPG. With Orlando suppressing threes and the under priced at -132, the market is already leaning that way, but the historical matchup and shot profile still support the under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Desmond Bane	2	8	10	50%	56%
Tristan da Silva	1	3	4	67%	67%
Jalen Suggs	1	3	0	0%	0%
Jett Howard	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jevon Carter	2	2	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.82, but the matchup history is weaker at 7.9 PPG across 10 games vs Orlando, and the opponent’s -1.013 three suppression mark works against his scoring profile. With multiple recent books pricing 11.5 and the under juiced, the safer lean is under.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

Merrill averages 2.58 rebounds season-long and 2.9 on the road, which sits below 3.5. His last 5 rebound spike to 4.8 is well above his norm, so regression makes the under more appealing.

assistsUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.29 assists for the season and 1.96 away, both under 2.5. Even though recent form is slightly better at 2.7 over the last 10, the season baseline still points to an under.

threesUNDER 360%MEDIUM

Season threes data shows 3.18 made threes per game, but his recent mean is 2.5 and Orlando’s three suppression is negative for shooters. That combination makes 3.0 an uncomfortable over number.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals on the season and 0.6 over his last 10, so 0.5 is playable. The confidence stays modest because the stat is low-volume and volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

His season average is only 0.2 blocks and the last 10 is 0.2, which is well below 0.5. This is a clear under based on volume alone.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 0.71 stocks on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, both below 1.5. Even with a few strong recent games, the combined defensive stat rate is too low for the over.

turnoversOVER 0.755%MEDIUM

His last 10 turnover average is 0.7, matching the projected line, while the season sits at 0.7 as well. This is close to fair, but the increased minutes recently give the over a slight lean.

prUNDER 16.556%MEDIUM

His season PR profile is 12.8 points plus 2.6 rebounds, which is below 16.5, and his last 5 scoring/rebounding mix does not justify a big ceiling projection. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the conservative side.

paUNDER 15.555%MEDIUM

Merrill’s season points and assists average combine to 15.1, just under this number, and his away assist rate is only 1.96. With combo variance, the under is the better play.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS